Mexican Elections 2017-18

[RodPresident]

Which are the chances for Mexico adopting run-off system to national and subnational elections?

[jaichind]

Which are the chances for Mexico adopting run-off system to national and subnational elections?

I doubt it. The Mexico election rules seems to be quite ingrained. 

[jaichind]

My initial guess on what the seat distribution will be like for Coahuila and Nayarit state assemblies.  I assume that they will allocate PR seats using  D'Hondt  which I suspect is not the way they do it.

Current Coahuila state assembly (PRI majority)
              
             District          PR             Total
PRI           16               0                16  (no PR PRI due to too high seat count given vote share)
PVEM          0               1                  1
PANAL        0               1                  1
PAN            0               4                  4
UDC           0               1                  1
PPC            0               1                  1
SI              0               1                  1

New Coahuila state assembly (PAN-UDC bare majority)

             District          PR             Total
PAN            8              4                12
UDC           1               0                 1
PRI            7               4               11
MORENA    0               1                 1




Current Nayarit state assembly  (small PRI-PVEM majority)  district and PR

             District          PR             Total
PRI           13               2               15
PVEM          1               1                2
PAN            2               4                6
PRD            1               2                3
PT              0               2                 2
MORENA     1               1                2  (I suspected they were elected as PRD but defected to MORENA)

New  Nayarit state assembly (PAN-PRD-PT majority) - I assume all PAN-PRD-PT FPTP district winners are PAN except for 2 PRD

             District          PR             Total
PAN          13               0               13   (no PR PAN due to too high seat count given vote share)
PRD            2               1                 3
PT              0                1                 1
PRI            2                6                 8
MORENA    1                3                 4
MC             0               1                 1

 

[jaichind]

With MORENA+PRD vote share in Edomex at close to 50% the are again talks in some PRD circles about forming an alliance with MORENA in 2018.  MORENA's position is that they welcome alliances with PT MC and PRD next year as they have no truck with PAN.  PRD's position seems to that they are open to alliance with MORENA next year as long as AMLO is not at the top of their ticket.  There seems to be pro- and anti- PAN factions within PRD as well as pro- and anti- PRD factions within PAN. The next few months will be fun on how these alliances negations work out. 

[jaichind]

Nomura report on Mexico political situation:

1) Should the PRD form an alliance with Morena, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador would have "formidable likelihood" of becoming next president in July 2018 election

2) If PRD forms alliance with PAN, they will have very strong probability of winning vote, but if PRD goes it alone in presidential election, that would greatly benefit the PRI

3) Morena arguably not strong enough to win the election on its own

4) The race for 2018 will be very close

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Looks like the PRD (and AMLO's personality) may be the kingmakers here.

[jaichind]

Official Nayarit results (non-null)

PAN-PRD-PT          40.23%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.61%
PRI rebel               12.85%
MORENA               12.48%
MC                         4.86%

PAN-PRD-PT went above 40%.

Coahuila and Edomex which are both there are a lot of challenges from PAN PRD and MORENA and will take a while before official results are tabulated and recorded as official.  All three opposition parties are crying fraud in both states and there are separate efforts to try to annul the results of both states.  So far the official count has go a bit against PRI relative to the PREP count but nothing enough to overturn the results.

[jaichind]

Map of the decline of PRI in 2017 municipal elections in Veracruz (before vs after)

[jaichind]

In Edomex PRI is ahead in the more rural areas while MORENA and PRD are ahead in the more urban areas that are connected to DF Mexico City.

[jaichind]

I thought it might be useful to use try to build a model of the relative strength of parties in each state in Mexico.  The number of seats elected in state legislatures by party is a fairly good way to do it.  Each state has a number of FTPT seats with a bunch of PR seats.  Each state has rules which cap the number of PR seats a party can get depending on the number FPTP seats it won relative to its vote share which makes the seat count to have a sort of a PR aspect to it even as the largest party does have a smallish bonus number of seats relative to its vote share.

The parties are PRI PVEM PANAL PES PAN PRD MC PT MORENA.  There are also pro-PRI Pro-PAN and Pro-Left independents and local minor parties.  The seats by state and party are

                                      Pro-                                    Pro-                          Pro-
State                       PRI  PRI  PVEM PANAL PES  PAN   PAN  PRD   MC   PT   Left   MORENA   Total
Aguascalientes          6      0      2      3        1      13     0     1      0     0      0       1               27
Baja California           5      0      0      0        1      13     1     1      1    1       0       2               25
Baja California Sur     3      0      0      0        0     15      0    1       0    1       0      1                21
Campeche               13      0      3      1        0     13     0     1       0    0       0      4                35
Chiapas                   10      7    16      0        0       2     0     2       0    0       0      3                40
Chihuahua                5      0      2      3        1     16      0    1       1    2       0      2                33
Coahuila                  11      0      0      0       0     11      2     0      0     0       0      1               25
Colima                      9       0     1      1        0     13      0    0       2     1      0       0               27
Distrito Federal          8      1      3      1       2      10       0   17      3     1      0    20               66
Durango                  21      0      1     1        0      2       0     1      1     1       0      0               29
Guanajuato               7      0      2     1        0     20      0     3      1     0       0      1               35
Guerrero                 19      0      5     0        0      2       0   15      2     2       0      1               46
Hidalgo‎                    10      0      3     4       1      7       0     3      1      0       0     1                30
Jalisco                     13      0      2      2       0      5       0    2     15     0       1      0               40
Edomex                  34      0       2     2       3     11      0   12      3      2      0      6               75
Michoacán               15      0      2     0        0      7       0   12     1      2      0       1               40
Morelos                     7      1      2     1        1      5       0    8      1      1      1       1               29
Nayarit                     8       0      0     0       0     13      0    3       1     1       0       4              30
Nuevo León            16       0      2     1       0     17      3    0      2      1       0       0              42
Oaxaca                   16       0      1     0       1      4       0    8      0      3       1       8              42
Puebla                      8       0      2     4       0    14       5    4      2      2       0       0              41
Querétaro                 8       0      1     1       0    13       0    1      0      0       0       1              25
Quintana Roo            7       0      5     1      1      6        0    3      0      0      0        2              25
San Luis Potosí          8       0      1     1      0      8        0    5      1      1      1        1              27
Sinaloa                    21       0      1     2      0      7       0    1       0      0      6       2              40
Sonora                    15       0      0     2      0     13      0     1      1      0      0       1              33
Tabasco                     8       0      5     0      0      3       0   13      1      1      0       4              35
Tamaulipas              12       0      1     1      0    20       0     0      1      0      0       1              36
Tlaxcala                    6        2      2     2      0     4        0     5      0      2      1       1              25
Veracruz                    9       2      3     1      0    17       0     5      0      0      0     13              50
Yucatán                  13        0      1     1      0     8        0     1      0      0      0       1              25
Zacatecas                11       0      3     2      0     3        0     2      0      2      0       6              29
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             363     13    74   39    12  315     11  132   41     27    11    90          1128
 
I projected what the seat count would be in Coahuila and Nayarit and plugged them into the chart

Which in terms of % of seats by party/bloc overall across Mexico as

PRI       32.18%
Pro-PRI   1.15%
PVEM      6.56%
PANAL    3.46%
PES        1.06%
PAN      27.93%
Pro-PAN  0.98%
PRD      11.70%
MC          3.63%
PT           2.39%
Pro-Left   0.98%
MORENA  7.89%


One flaw of these numbers are that they are not weighted by the voting population of each state.  So I re-weighted them based on the 2012 non-null vote and get

PRI       31.32%
Pro-PRI   1.25%
PVEM      5.87%
PANAL    3.03%
PES        1.69%
PAN      23.37%
Pro-PAN  0.99%
PRD      13.89%
MC          5.07%
PT           2.13%
Pro-Left   0.65%
MORENA 10.74%

Which we can group into

Center    41.47%  (PRI PVEM PANAL)
Right      26.04%  (PAN PES)
Left        32.48%  (PRD MC PT MORENA)



Which is somewhat close to the 2015 Legislative non-null vote shares of each party

PRI          30.69%
PRI rebels  0.05%
PVEM         7.27%
PANAL       3.92%
PES           3.50%
PAN         22.10%
PAN rebel   2.74% (includes Humanist Party which has a pro-PAN lean and has since been disbanded)
PRD         11.43%
MC             6.41%
PT              2.99%
Left rebel   0.06%
MORENA    8.82%

Which we can group into

Center    41.94%  (PRI PVEM PANAL)
Right      28.33%  (PAN PES PH)
Left        29.73%  (PRD MC PT MORENA)


Now I calculated the seat share of each bloc I can make all sort of models from this that can help come up with a generic vote share in the 2018 Prez race.

[jaichind]

If we take the party index that I calculated using the weighted size of state legislatures

PRI       31.32%
Pro-PRI   1.25%
PVEM      5.87%
PANAL    3.03%
PES        1.69%
PAN      23.37%
Pro-PAN  0.99%
PRD      13.89%
MC          5.07%
PT           2.13%
Pro-Left   0.65%
MORENA 10.74%

we can then make other adjustments.    

First, a couple of state election results are from 2013 and about a half from 2015 and the partisan breakdown has shifted since.  I looked through these results and found two obvious such cases.  One is Durango which had its state legislature election in 2013 which was a PRI landslide but had a PAN victory in 2015 governor election.  One other is Edomex which had its state legislature elections in 2015 which was a signficiant PRI victory followed by 2017 governor election where PRI barely defeated MORENA.  

That gives us

PRI       28.20%
Pro-PRI   1.25%
PVEM      5.87%
PANAL    3.03%
PES        1.69%
PAN      22.47%
Pro-PAN  0.99%
PRD      13.58%
MC          5.07%
PT           2.13%
Pro-Left   0.65%
MORENA 15.06%

Which we can group into

Center    38.36%  (PRI PVEM PANAL)
Right      25.15%  (PAN PES)
Left        36.49%  (PRD MC PT MORENA)


As we look at the 2018 Prez election we can make further adjustments for the 2018 Prez race.  First this party strength index is based on election results from 2015 and 2016.  Since 2015 PRI-PVEM has lost small amount of ground to PAN.  Furthermore PRI PRD and MC lost ground to MORENA since AMLO was able to attract anti-establishment votes in those parties.  So I made adjustments from the party index above based on

PRI->MORENA   5%  (anti-establishment PRI vote migrate toward MORENA)
PRD->MORENA  3%  (anti-establishment PRD vote migrate toward MORENA)
MC->MORENA    1% (anti-establishment MC vote migrate toward MORENA)
PRI->PAN           1% PRI lost ground to PAN since 2015
PVEM->PAN        1% PAN lost ground to PAN since 2015

which gives us

PRI       22.20%
Pro-PRI   1.25%
PVEM      4.87%
PANAL    3.03%
PES        1.69%
PAN      24.47%
Pro-PAN  0.99%
PRD      10.58%
MC          4.07%
PT           2.13%
Pro-Left   0.65%
MORENA 24.06%

Which we can group into

Center    31.36%  (PRI PVEM PANAL)
Right      27.15%  (PAN PES)
Left        41.49%  (PRD MC PT MORENA)



Politico.mx came up with their poll of polls running average of 2018 Prez vote and their last known April 2017 estimation was

PAN        27.71%
PRI         24.48%
PRD         9.52%
PT            3.30%
PVEM       3.90%
MC           3.90%
PANAL      2.75%
MORENA 24.30%
PES          1.70%
Ind,          5.00%

Of course one problem with this is that these numbers add up to a bit over 105% so they have a math problem.  If you throw out their Ind. 5% number then the remaining numbers matches what my model pretty well.

[jaichind]

Using

PRI       22.20%
Pro-PRI   1.25%
PVEM      4.87%
PANAL    3.03%
PES        1.69%
PAN      24.47%
Pro-PAN  0.99%
PRD      10.58%
MC          4.07%
PT           2.13%
Pro-Left   0.65%
MORENA 24.06%

as the core building blocks we can come up with 4 scenarios for 2018

Scenario 1 - Default scenario which each partying going with its natural allies.  Not clear PANAL will gop with PRI and it is possible PES might end up with PRI instead.  Also PT or MC might go with MORENA but this represents the default case.  Chances of this being the race (30%)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL
PAN-PES
PRD-MC-PT
MORENA

Scenario 2 - PAN-PRD alliance.  PES will go with PRI or go it alone.  MC-PT will most likely go with MORENA but might got it alone.  Again PANAL might go it alone. Chances of this being the race (50%)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES
PAN-PRD
MORENA-MC-PT

Scenario 3 PAN-PRD-PT alliance.  It is possible PRD brings PT along to the PAN alliance.  This sort of alliance has worked out in a couple of states already.  Again MC will most likely go with MORENA or go it alone.  PANAL might go it alone.  PES will go with PRI or got it alone. Chances of this being the race (10%)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES
PAN-PRD-PT
MORENA-MC

Scenario 4 MORENA-PRD alliance with ALMO being the candidate which makes the election a re-run of 2012 but with a weakened PRI.  MC-PT will most likely come along as well.  PES might go with PRI instead of PAN.  Of course PANAL could go it alone. Chances of this being the race (10%). 
PRI-PVEM-PANAL
PAN-PES
MORENA-PRD-MC-PT


AMLO will of course run as the MORENA candidate no matter what.  We can use the party building block to construct what a generic PRI PAN and PRD (where appropriate) candidate would get as a vote share.

Scenerio 1
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   31.36%
PAN-PES                27.15%
PRD-MC-PT            17.43%
MORENA                24.06%

Now one would expect tactical voting by PRD voters so we add 2% each to PAN and MORENA respectively from PRD in which we get

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   31.36%
PAN-PES                29.15%
PRD-MC-PT            13.43%
MORENA                26.06%

Which give PRI a slight advantage.  How more PRD tactical voting takes place on top of this will determine the winner. 


Scenario 2
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   33.05%
PAN-PRD                      36.04%
MORENA-MC-PT            30.91%

The candidate would be a PAN candidate that is acceptable to PRD.  But one would expect a backlash of anti-PAN PRD voters toward MORENA so we add 2% from PAN-PRD to MORENA-MC-PT which gives us

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   33.05%
PAN-PRD                      34.04%
MORENA-MC-PT            32.91%

A virtual 3 way tie between the 3 blocs.


Scenario 3
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  33.05%
PAN-PRD-PT                38.17%
MORENA-MC                28.17%

One would expect the same anti-PAN backlash from anti-PAN PRD voters so we again add 2% from PAN-PRD to MORENA to give us

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  33.05%
PAN-PRD-PT                36.17%
MORENA-MC                30.17%

Where PAN-PRD-PT has the clear upper hand.


Scenario 4
PRI-PVEM-PANAL         31.36%
PAN-PES                      27.15%
MORENA-PRD-MC-PT    41.49%

But one would expect anti-PRI anti-MORENA PRD voters to bolt against this and defect to PAN.  Same for some anti-establishment PRI voters that went to MORENA but turned off by the alliance with PRD.  So we assign 3% from MORENA-PRD to PAN and 2% from MORENA-PRD to PRI.  Which gives us

PRI-PVEM-PANAL         33.36%
PAN-PES                      30.15%
MORENA-PRD-MC-PT    36.49%

A clear advantage of MORENA-PRD-MC-PT



Note that all this assumes a generic PRI PAN and PRD candidates.  Candidate quality makes a big difference and could shift some of these numbers greatly.  The 2006 PRI candidate Madrazo was considered poor quality and had significant opposition from within PRI and turned a 3 way race between PRI PAN and PRD (AMLO) into a PAN vs AMLO battle.

[jaichind]

What is interesting about these scenarios are

1) It is critical for PRI to get PANAL and hopefully PES as allies.    If PRI-PVEM cannot rope in PANAL then PRI might just be out of the game regardless how PAN-PRD alliance plays out.

2) The best way for PRI to win is for a failure of PAN-PRD alliance. 

3) On the other hand short of a MORENA-PRD alliance the best way for ALMO to win is a PAN-PRD alliance.

4) PAN and PRD share the same goals in 2018: push PRI out of power and beat back ALMO. But 2) and 3) shows these two goals might be at odds with each other.  Within PRD there are pro-PAN and anti-PAN and within PAN there are pro-PRD and anti-PRD factions which makes the nomination battles within PAN and PRD extra confusing, erratic and unpredictable

5) PRD is the true kingmaker of 2018.  Through its actions it can make PRI PAN or MORENA king although there is zero chance of PRD being the king.

[jaichind]

It seems that AMLO has ruled out alliance with PRD and MC but does accept the possibility of an alliance between MORENA and PT.    This might be an negotiating tactic although PRD's relatively good performance in Edomex has increased its bargaining power.

In the meantime PAN is all over the place.  There are factions/voices that are calling for going it alone, alliance with PRD, alliance with PRI!!?? and even alliance with MORENA!!??   These comments are most likely  are not serious but more a part of the struggle for the PAN nomination for the 2018 Prez election.

[Lord Halifax]

It seems that AMLO has ruled out alliance with PRD and MC but does accept the possibility of an alliance between MORENA and PT.    This might be an negotiating tactic although PRD's relatively good performance in Edomex has increased its bargaining power.

In the meantime PAN is all over the place.  There are factions/voices that are calling for going it alone, alliance with PRD, alliance with PRI!!?? and even alliance with MORENA!!??   These comments are most likely  are not serious but more a part of the struggle for the PAN nomination for the 2018 Prez election.

Why did AMLO originally fell out with PRD? Was he just too dictatorial in his leadership, or was there an ideological element of sorts?

[jaichind]

Final Coahuila results non-null

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.89%
PAN-PES-UDC          36.41%
MORENA                  12.21%
PRI rebel                   8.46%
PRD                          1.70%
PT                            1.55%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

PRI won by a bigger margin than final PREP numbers
PT managed an almost same vote share as 2011 even though it ran by itself and dropped out last minute in favor of MORENA


Comparison to 2011 Coahulia (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     61.48%
PAN-UDC                36.00%
PT-MC                       1.57%
PRD                          0.95%

[jaichind]

Why did AMLO originally fell out with PRD? Was he just too dictatorial in his leadership, or was there an ideological element of sorts?

Mostly because he wanted a party that he can control and not fight every election cycle for the nomination.  PRD had other non-AMLO factions and AMLO does not want to deal with them.  In theory it is AMLO anti-establishment (no cooperation with PRI nor PAN) versus non-AMLO pro-establishment (work if necessary with PRI or PAN). But in reality it is just about AMLO having control of the entire party.

[jaichind]

More alliance news.  AMLO already ruled out alliances with PRD PRI and MC but seems to want an alliance with PT.   

The current president of PAN, Ricardo Anaya, who is looking to become the PAN candidate for Prez seems to be pushing for an alliance with PRD.   His main rival, Margarita Zavala, wife of former President Calderón is opposed to an alliance with PRD.  The main differences seems to be less about how they view PRD  but more about  Margarita Zavala being ahead in the polls and wanted a quick process to lock in her victory in the PAN primary.  Ricardo Anaya is wants an alliance with PRD to delay the PAN nomination process so it can be coordinated with PRD to give himself the time to take down Margarita Zavala through other means so he can become nominee.  Ricardo Anaya is even now calling for changing the election rules to allow for a runoff election.   Again it is a tactic to delay the entire PAN nomination process to give himself the room to overtake Margarita Zavala.

PRD seems to want an alliance with PAN including possibly backing a PAN candidate as the joint PAN-PRD candidate because it wants to protect its position in DF Mexico City from the onslaught of MORENA.  PRD is hoping a PRD-PAN alliance can beat back MORENA in the 2018 DF Mexico City elections.  PRD is taking a big risk here and might become a regional party of Greater Mexico City (DF Mexico City and Edomex) plus a few other of other Southern States and cede any ground they have in Northern Mexico to PAN.

Both MC and PRI came out to denounce the possible PAN-PRD deal.  It seems that of the minor Leftist parties, PT will go with MORENA.  One would expect MC go with PRD even within an alliance with PAN given that MORENA has already rejected an alliance with MC.  It could be MC see PAN-PRD as a dud and is acting to get MORENA change its mind on alliance with MC.  Time will tell.

[jaichind]

So far the alliance possibility matrix seems to be
1) PAN-PRD could be allies but could be seperate
2) MORENA-PT looks very likely
3) PRI-PVEM for sure with PANAL likely to be in the alliance. PANAL could go it alone but it makes sense to assume PRI can rope them in.
4) MC can go with PRD but not PAN-PRD and if need so go it alone
5) MORENA rejected MC as ally but I think take them on if MC rejects any truck with PAN-PRD
6) PES could go with PRI or PAN.  PES talks about going it alone but that seems like a negotiating tactic.

So we can build 4 possible scenarios

Scenario 1 (default case)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL
PAN-PES
PRD-MC
MORENA-PT

Scenario 2 (Default plus PES goes with PRI instead of PAN)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES
PAN
PRD-MC
MORENA-PT

Scenerio 3 (PAN-PRD alliance, MC goes it alone)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES
PAN-PRD
MORENA-PT
MC

Scenario 4 (PAN-PRD alliance, MC goes with MORENA)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES
PAN-PRD
MORENA-PT-MC

We can use the same adjusted party power index I built to estimate the generic vote share of each one of these scenarios plus some adjustments.  I found a couple of minor bugs in some of my numbers which I fixed so we have.

PRI       22.20%
Pro-PRI   0.99%
PVEM      4.87%
PANAL    3.03%
PES        1.69%
PAN      24.47%
Pro-PAN  1.24%
PRD      10.58%
MC          3.64%
PT           2.13%
Pro-Left   0.65%
MORENA 24.50%

Scenario 1 (default case)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   31.10%
PAN-PES                27.41%
PRD-MC                 14.87%
MORENA-PT           26.63%

I expect PRD-MC to lose 2% each to PAN-PES and MORENA-PT as part of anti-PRI tactical voting to give us
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   31.10%
PAN-PES                29.41%
PRD-MC                 10.87%
MORENA-PT           28.63%

PRI has a slight edge but further PRD-MC tactical voting will determine the winner.


Scenario 2 (Default plus PES goes with PRI instead of PAN)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    32.79%
PAN                              25.72%
PRD-MC                        14.87%
MORENA-PT                  26.63%

Just like Scenario 1 I expect PRD-MC to lose 2% each to PAN-PES and MORENA-PT as part of anti-PRI tactical voting to give us
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    32.79%
PAN                              27.72%
PRD-MC                        10.87%
MORENA-PT                  28.63%
PRI has a significant but not insurmountable edge here.  Shows the power of small players in a close race like this that PES can swing the race toward PRI.


Scenerio 3 (PAN-PRD alliance, MC goes it alone)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    32.79%
PAN-PRD                       36.95%
MORENA-PT                   26.63%
MC                                  3.64%

I do expect MC tactical voting in favor of MORENA in this situation and a backlash of anti-PAN anti-establishment PRD voters toward MORENA of 3% which gives us
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    32.79%
PAN-PRD                       33.95%
MORENA-PT                   30.63%
MC                                  2.64%
With PAN-PRD with the edge.  PRI tends to have a low ceiling so this lead might be difficult to surmount as MORENA-PT is not as close to PAN-PRD  


Scenario 4 (PAN-PRD alliance, MC goes with MORENA)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    32.79%
PAN-PRD                       36.95%
MORENA-PT-MC             30.26%

I do expect a backlash of anti-PAN anti-establishment PRD voters toward MORENA of 3% which gives us
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    32.79%
PAN-PRD                       33.95%
MORENA-PT-MC             32.26%
Still PAN-PRD with a slight edge but with MORENA-PT-MC so close there might be more defections from PRD base toward MORENA-PT-MC


So the conclusion is the same.   Best way to beat PRI is for a PAN-PRD alliance which in turn is the best way to allow MORENA to win.    PRD might gave to prioritize between beating PRI versus blocking AMLO.

[jaichind]

Final Edomex results.  I also calculated the vote share of each of the PRI and PRI allies

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  34.73%
   PRI                          31.14%
   PVEM                         1.62%
   PANAL                        1.13%
   PES                           0.84%
MORENA                     31.87%
PRD                            18.44%
PAN                            11.62%
PRI rebel                       2.21%
PT                                1.11% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI margin of victory drops to slightly below 3% in non-null terms

Usually when parties form an alliance people tend to vote for the that candidate under the line for the party that the candidate is under.  Ergo the unusual size of the PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES accrued under the PRI line.   This distribution most likely overestimates the size of the PRI vote relative to the PRI allies.  Still note that the PRI vote is actually below MORENA and the PRI candidate needed the votes that was explicitly cast for the PRI allies to win.

2011 Edomex (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  65.09%
PRD-PT-MC           22.01%
PAN                     12.90%

[jaichind]

My initial guess on what the seat distribution will be like for Coahuila and Nayarit state assemblies.  I assume that they will allocate PR seats using  D'Hondt  which I suspect is not the way they do it.

Current Coahuila state assembly (PRI majority)
              
             District          PR             Total
PRI           16               0                16  (no PR PRI due to too high seat count given vote share)
PVEM          0               1                  1
PANAL        0               1                  1
PAN            0               4                  4
UDC           0               1                  1
PPC            0               1                  1
SI              0               1                  1

New Coahuila state assembly (PAN-UDC bare majority)

             District          PR             Total
PAN            8              4                12
UDC           1               0                 1
PRI            7               4               11
MORENA    0               1                 1

Coahuila state assembly results are out.  It seems that that they do not allocate PR seats according to D'Hondt method but other means which are more favorable to  smaller parties.  I also got the identity of a couple of PAN-UDC candidates wrong and labeled them as PAN when they were UDC.   The result is PAN-UDC 12 to PRI 10 with the Left parties holding the balance of power

             District          PR             Total
PAN            6              3                 9
UDC           3               0                 3
PRI            7               3               10
PRD           0               1                 1
MORENA    0               2                 2

Again with the various PRI plus its various allies picking up the Governor PRI-PVEM-PANAL and PRI rebel vote the votes are there for the pro PRI bloc to win a majority of seats.  Main problem here is all the PRI bloc parties ran separately in the state assembly elections allowing PAN-UDC to win a bunch of the FPTP seats.  The PRI strategy of having all its allies run separately to split the anti-PRI vote did not seem to work.

[jaichind]

My initial guess on what the seat distribution will be like for Coahuila and Nayarit state assemblies.  I assume that they will allocate PR seats using  D'Hondt  which I suspect is not the way they do it.
 
Current Nayarit state assembly  (small PRI-PVEM majority)  district and PR

             District          PR             Total
PRI           13               2               15
PVEM          1               1                2
PAN            2               4                6
PRD            1               2                3
PT              0               2                 2
MORENA     1               1                2  (I suspected they were elected as PRD but defected to MORENA)

New  Nayarit state assembly (PAN-PRD-PT majority) - I assume all PAN-PRD-PT FPTP district winners are PAN except for 2 PRD

             District          PR             Total
PAN          13               0               13   (no PR PAN due to too high seat count given vote share)
PRD            2               1                 3
PT              0                1                 1
PRI            2                6                 8
MORENA    1                3                 4
MC             0               1                 1

 

No official results from  Nayarit on state assembly but based on my discovery on how PR seats are allocated (not  D'Hondt) then my guesstimate on the new   Nayarit  is

             District          PR             Total
PAN          13               0               13   (no PR PAN due to too high seat count given vote share)
PRD            2               1                 3
PT              0                1                 1
PRI            2                5                 8
PANAL        0                1                1
MORENA    1                3                 4
MC             0               1                 1

mostly the same as my previous guesstimate with still PAN-PRD-PT at a majority of 17 out of 30.

[jaichind]

One thing that is interesting about the new deputies that just got elected in Coahuila and  Nayarit is that they are the first batch of elected officials in Mexican history since the revolution that are eligible for re-election.  They changed the rules a while ago that allows for legislative seats to allow one re-election.   This batch of elected deputies are the first ones for this rule change to apply to.

[jaichind]

There are all sorts of stories on the pro-MORENA social media about PRI rigging the vote count in Edomex.  While I am certain there are all sorts of PRI vote buying so far I do not see any evidence of mass rigging.   One example comes from the vote count a certain section.



Where MORENA got 112 votes but on PREP website has them getting zero votes.



Of course now the official result are out, I download the results by section and found that this section, LERMA-2387-C01, had, indeed 112 votes for MORENA.  Sure on election counting night there will be typos but when all the certified results are tabulated it seems the count does not seem to contain any mistakes on a mass basis.

[jaichind]

Latest Consulta Mitofsky poll on party support has PRI and MORENA climbing and PAN falling slightly





PAN         18.6  (-0.2)
MORENA  17.7  (+1.8   )
PRI          16.6  (+3.6)
PRD          6.7  (+1.6)
Ind           3.6  (+0.6)   (El Bronco?)
MC           1.3   (-0.4)
PVEM       1.1   (-0.3)
PT            1.0   (+0.2)
PANAL      0.7  (-0.4)
PES          0.6  (-0.1)

The poll then tries to group by possible alliances such as PAN-PRD.  It also assumes PRI can rope in both PANAL and PES for PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES.  PT will go with MORENA.  Still not clear where MC goes which could be by itself, with PAN-PRD, with PRD only, or with MORENA.  

This poll sort of matches by local legislator based adjust party power index where I normalized the number of state legislators by party they were elected by the voting population and then take into account the fact that they were mostly elected in 2015 and 2016 and adjust for the effect of a PRI-PVEM swing to PAN and a PRI as well as PRD swing toward MORENA due to AMLO being on the ticket.  My latest numbers after fixed a couple of more bugs are

PRI         23.13%
pro-PRI     0.99%
PVEM        4.91%
PANAL       2.59%
PES           1.07%
PAN        24.12%
pro-PAN    1.62%
PRD          9.95%
MC            4.24%
PT             1.71%
Pro-Left     0.34%
MORENA  25.32%