Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Mitofsky poll for Prez for Guerrero July 2017 versus June 2016



MORENA   19.2 (+3.4)
PRI          15.7 (-8.3)
PRD         10.0 (-4.0)
PAN           6.9 (-0.8  )
PVEM         1.6 (+0.8  )
PES           1.6 (+1.6)
PT             1.2 (+0.5)
MC            1.1 (+0.4)

[jaichind]

El Universal poll with change from May for larger parties



MORENA    23 (-1)
PAN           19 (-4)
PRI            16 (+4)
PRD             6 (-1)
PVEM           5
PT               4
MC              4
PANAL         3
PES             2

PRI is gaining from PAN.  If we go with expected alliances then it will be

MORENA-PT                  27
PAN-PRD-MC                29
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   26

Near 3 way tie

Same poll has Nieto approval up 3 to 28%




Head to head it had

AMLO    27
Zavala   20
Chong   16


If there were alliances with Anaya from PAN or Mancera of PRD as the PAN-PRD candidate then it will be



AMLO(MORENA-PT)                  32
Anaya(PAN-PRD-MC)                25
Chong(PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES)   24

AMLO(MORENA-PT)                  32
Mancera(PAN-PRD-MC)             25
Chong(PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES)   23

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky poll on fav/unfav of possible candidates



AMLO has best name recognition and only -3.1.  Chong is high name recognition but -15.8 while Zavla is next but is down to -6.5.    PAN Prez Anaya is only -2.4 so is competitive with AMLO but has much lower name recognition and net approval will go lower if he is the PAN-PRD nominee.   

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN PRD and MC have registered an alliance with INE which gives them the option of all three running as a bloc in the next election.  This does not obligate them to run as a bloc but now the road is clear for the 3 parties to negotiate a common alliance in the 2018 elections.  A PAN-PRD-MC bloc decrease the chances of a PRI victory since it pushes up the ceiling for a PAN-PRD candidate but could very well increase the chance of an AMLO victory as anti-Establishment MC voters might vote AMLO whereas they would vote for MC if MC ran by itself. 

[jaichind]

More Mitofsky poll results



PAN-PRD-MC               21.2
MORENA-PT                16.4
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  14.8

But AMLO still significantly ahead in all scenarios where PAN and PRD runs seperately 

[jaichind]

El Universal poll



has  vote for Prez by party

MORENA    23.3
PAN           20.0
PRI            16.5
PRD             5.7
Ind              3.5
MC               1.0

In theory PAN-PRD-MC has 26.7 which beats MORENA.  Main problem there is there will be PRD defections to MORENA in such a scenario.

[jaichind]

Zavala quits PAN and will run as independent and split the PAN vote given it seems unlikely she will  be the PAN-PRD-MC candidate. It seems that she might be handing victory to AMLO or PRI. 

[jaichind]

Looks like El Bronco will also run.  This and Zavala running is a AMLO dream come true.

[jaichind]

Post  Zavala  leaving PAN to run as an independent, Financiero poll



MORENA-PT (AMLO)               32 (-2)
PRI-PVEM (Chong)                 24 (+1)
PAN-PRD-MC(Anaya)              19 (-6)
Ind (Zavala)                          16 (+7)
Ind (Pedro Ferriz,El Bronco)      9

Main danger for both Anaya and Zavala is if PRI establishes itself as the alternative to AMLO.  Then both will become marginalized as the establishment vote (some of PAN's vote) will go to PRI.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Post  Zavala  leaving PAN to run as an independent, Financiero poll



MORENA-PT (AMLO)               32 (-2)
PRI-PVEM (Chong)                 24 (+1)
PAN-PRD-MC(Anaya)              19 (-6)
Ind (Zavala)                          16 (+7)
Ind (Pedro Ferriz,El Bronco)      9

Main danger for both Anaya and Zavala is if PRI establishes itself as the alternative to AMLO.  Then both will become marginalized as the establishment vote (some of PAN's vote) will go to PRI.

This is a dubious claim - middle class/well-educated Mexicans might have been willing to hold their nose to vote tactically for the PRI against AMLO in 2012, when the PRI had been out of power at the federal level for 12 years and, IIRC, there was some evidence of this in very wealthy parts of DF, like Polanco, where the PRI won some voting booths. This is not the case anymore - I doubt that any urban professional who isn't a recipient of direct patronage would consider the PRI. EPN was

What's more likely is that the anti-AMLO/anti-PRI vote will consolidate around Zavala, Anaya or El Bronco. Few people will be willing to switch lanes to vote for the PRI - that's a bridge too far for the average PANista.

[jaichind]

Post  Zavala  leaving PAN to run as an independent, Financiero poll



MORENA-PT (AMLO)               32 (-2)
PRI-PVEM (Chong)                 24 (+1)
PAN-PRD-MC(Anaya)              19 (-6)
Ind (Zavala)                          16 (+7)
Ind (Pedro Ferriz,El Bronco)      9

Main danger for both Anaya and Zavala is if PRI establishes itself as the alternative to AMLO.  Then both will become marginalized as the establishment vote (some of PAN's vote) will go to PRI.

This is a dubious claim - middle class/well-educated Mexicans might have been willing to hold their nose to vote tactically for the PRI against AMLO in 2012, when the PRI had been out of power at the federal level for 12 years and, IIRC, there was some evidence of this in very wealthy parts of DF, like Polanco, where the PRI won some voting booths. This is not the case anymore - I doubt that any urban professional who isn't a recipient of direct patronage would consider the PRI. EPN was

What's more likely is that the anti-AMLO/anti-PRI vote will consolidate around Zavala, Anaya or El Bronco. Few people will be willing to switch lanes to vote for the PRI - that's a bridge too far for the average PANista.

You could be right of course.   I guess where I am coming from is I see AMLO getting low 30s, PRI-PVEM will end up in the high 20s, especially if they can rope in PANAL or PES.  So that leaves everyone else with around 40% to play with.  I find it hard to believe that between Zavala Aanya and El Bronco that one of them could emerge with a bloc in the high 20s to display PRI-PVEM as the main anti-AMLO alternative.  Of course you could be right that the desire to beat both PRI and AMLO could drive this 40% to consolidate around one candidate driving all the rest into single digits.  Main problem here seems to be Zavala and El Bronic has name recognition but Anaya will have the PAN-PRD organization.   

[jaichind]

SDP poll



MORENA-PT                30.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  22.8
PAN-PRD-MC               22.2
Independent               17.0  (Zavala, Pedro Ferriz, El Bronco?)

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky poll



In terms of party fronts PRI is catching up

PAN-PRD-MC    24.5
PRI-PVEM        21.1
MORENA-PT     20.6
Ind.                  9.9

In terms of candidate scenerios

If PRI brings out their strongest candidate Chong and PAN-PRD-MC brings up Anaya it becomes
a 3 way race with Zavala way behind.  In the end party label counts more than candidate according to this poll.

AMLO      22.3
Anaya     21.2
Chong     21.0
Zavala      7.1

[jaichind]

DEFOE-SPIN poll has it neck-to-neck between PRI-PVEM-PANAL and MORENA-PT with PAN-PRD-MC running third. 



MORENA-PT            27
PRI-PVEM-PANAL    26
PAN-PRD-MC          22

Zavala's exit from PAN is doing damage.

[jaichind]

El Universal poll

It it is a free for all then it is

AMLO(MORENA)     27
Chong(PRI)           17
Aanya(PAN)           15
Mancera(PRD)         7
Zavala(PAN rebel)   7


If it is a PAN-PRD alliance then it is

AMLO(MORENA-PT)            28
Anaya(PAN-PRD-MC)          21
Chong(PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    20
Zavala(PAN rebel)              10

[jaichind]

El Financiero polls

Scenario 1 (free for all)

AMLO(MORENA)     30
Chong(PRI)           25
Aanya(PAN)           15
Zavala(PAN rebel)  13
Mancera(PRD)         9
El Bronco                5  (PRI rebel, pulls votes from both PRI and PAN)
Marichuy                3   (indigenous party mostly pulls votes from AMLO)




Scenario 2  Anaya leads PAN-PRD-MC front (most likely scenario)

AMLO(MORENA-PT)            33
Chong(PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    26
Anaya(PAN-PRD-MC)          18
Zavala(PAN rebel)              15
El Bronco                            5  
Marichuy                            3    




Scenario 3 Mancera leads front

AMLO(MORENA-PT)            32
Chong(PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    25
Mancera(PAN-PRD-MC)       20
Zavala(PAN rebel)              16
El Bronco                            4  
Marichuy                            3  




Scenario 4 Only Zavala gets enough signatures to run

AMLO(MORENA-PT)            35
Chong(PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    27
Anaya(PAN-PRD-MC)          19
Zavala(PAN rebel)              19



If Meade is the PRI candidate PRI does 5%-7% worse.  It seems overall Anaya is not a great candidate for PAN-PRD-MC and Zavala is getting traction especially if El Bronco does not run.  If PRI goes with Chong then only very strong tactical voting between Anaya and Zavala would prevent PRI or AMLO from winning.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Meade resigns and declares for the PRI nomination. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-27/meade-to-seek-mexico-ruling-party-nod-in-2018-presidential-race

[jaichind]

Many commentators indicate that Meade would be able to have cross-party appeal which makes him a good candidate for PRI to disassociated itself from the scandals of the current PRI administration.   On the other hand he seems to do worse than Chong in various matchup polls.  That could change now that Meade is running.

[jaichind]

GCE has first poll after Meade becomes PRI candidate based on free-for-all scenerio



MORENA (AMLO)      28.7
PRI(Meade)             23.2
PAN rebel(Zavala)    11.5
PAN(Anaya)              8.1
PRD(Mancera)           4.3
PRI rebel(El Bronco)  4.0

I think over the next month we will see the first peaking of Meade support before falling to his true level of support.   

[jaichind]

El Universal and Defoe / SPIN-TCP, also free for all



MORENA (AMLO)      23
PRI(Meade)              20
PAN(Anaya)             12
PRD(Mancera)           8
PAN rebel(Zavala)      6

[Octowakandi]

Many commentators indicate that Meade would be able to have cross-party appeal which makes him a good candidate for PRI to disassociated itself from the scandals of the current PRI administration.   On the other hand he seems to do worse than Chong in various matchup polls.  That could change now that Meade is running.

I don't understand how Chong is possibly doing better than Meade in these match ups. Everything in Chong's career since he's went into the administration has been a failure. I have to assume it's just a name recognition thing unless anyone else knows why Chong does better.

[jaichind]

El Universal poll

AMLO (MORENA-PT)     31
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)   23
Meade (PRI-PVEM)       16
Zavala (PAN rebel)       10



If true this is good for Anaya which will get most of the anti-AMLO tactical vote.

[ag]

I will come back just for this one quick post. No intention of coming back otherwise, but just want to clarify some things about this election.

Right now the entire race is about who is going to be the anti-AMLO. Nominating Meade is a grand gambit for PRI: they trade properly PRIista nominee (Meade is not, really, one of them) for the chance  to actually be able to stay in the country after the election.

As a gambit it has a certain genius in it: it does poach the PAN space, as Meade as such would be the sort of a president most PANistas could leave with. The problem, though, is that it leaves too much space on the other end of the spectrum: Meade is clueless about PRIista machine, has no appeal to the traditional dino crowd, has no faction of his own. In contrast, AMLO is an old-time PRIista apparatchik, who has been very successful attracting the disaffected chunks of the old machine. The danger is, the traditionalist PRI wing is going to be poacheable by AMLO.

This is why they are doing the entire pageant of the old-time PRI nomination, with the, presidential "destape", "sectores" represenatives pledgin allegiance and siging ditties about Peña today and Kurbreña tomorrow and such. For the moment, they are safeguarding their own machine, of which they are uncertain.

But that also has a downside: the entire spectacle is causing nausea among the anti-PRI segments of the society, including a lot of PANistas. None of them are going to vote for AMLO, but voting for PRI, especially after the corruption and misgovernment of the Peña administration, is a step that would be difficult in the best circumstances. The manner of Meade´s nomination is making them actually vomit. There are a lot of people who are praying for any credible candidacy from the PAN-PRD combine to take over the second spot. Not because they dislike the PRI candidate: Pepe Meade would, for many of those doing the praying, be the ideal candidate were he to run on the PAN line. But they had spent first half of their lives HATING how PRI used to do things. Being reminded of that now is causing a revulsion towards the guy they should be liking.

The outcome of this is that PAN-PRD has a surprisingly high floor for the moment. How durable that is, is a question. Presumably, after he gets control of the party organization, Meade is going to try to appeal to his former comrades. How successful he is going to be would depend on how strong is AMLO, of course. But also on the emergence of any strong alternative. At this point far too many PANistas would be willing to even go for a moderate leftist, somebody from the PRD, ideological coherence be damned. That would have an added virtue of  limiting the space available to AMLO. Mancera is not popular either among PANistas or among PRDistas, but if he can provide a credible race for the second, a lot of people would go for him: he may no be popular, but nobody would vomit while marking a ballot for him.

But, alas, it would seem Anaya has the control of the process, and if he uses it for himself, one has a feeling he will, eventually, get slaughtered. He is not a bad guy, but he has no charisma or weight. Any weakness on the PAN-PRD side, and people will report to duty and vote for Meade. Better 2 minutes of self-loathing behind a curtain, while marking the ballot for PRI, than 6 years of AMLO.

The danger, of course, is also that PAN will run on the right of Meade (which would be consistent with Anaya), leaving ample space for further PRI and PRD defections to Morena. Mexico is a leftist country: having two rightist candidates is not a way to win.

[jaichind]

El Economista poll

AMLO (MORENA-PT)     23.0 (-0.1)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)   20.0 (+0.5)
Meade (PRI-PVEM)       19.4 (+1.
Zavala (PAN rebel)        9.2 (-3.3) (includes El Bronco)

[jaichind]

Looks like only Zavala and El Bronco are able to get on the ballot with enough signatures.  So the ballot will mostly look like this:



With PRI PVEM PANAL for Meade, PAN PRD MC for Aanya and MORENA PT for AMLO.  PES is not clear and has a day or two to decide on what it wants to do.  There are talks that PES, which is center-right, could go with PRI or PAN-PRD or even MORENA !!  PES could also run its own candidate.  We will know in a few days.