Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

It seems center-right PES will join MORENA-PT in an alliance to back AMLO.  Wow. What a surprise. 

[jaichind]

It seems the MORENA PT PES alliance will divide up the 300 Lowe House seats MORENA 150 PT 745 PES 75.  It seems AMLO is prioritizing getting PT and PES to back him for Prez race than seats in the lower house.  MORENA strength is clearly greater than the sum of PT and PES.

[ag]

This is quite controversial within the Left. There were protests today during the registration of the alliance. Among the protestors there were prominent people: for instance, Elena Poniatowska. PES is very socially conservative.

There is a reason for AMLO to do this. He is, clearly, trying to poach the social conservatives from PAN (in case it remains the major competitor) or prevent them from moving to Meade (otherwise). Being able to do this with no sacrifice in power (as PES has no powerful politicians inside it) is an added bonus. Ideologically, for him it is no problem whatsoever. He is personally extremely socially conservative, and has only tolerated the socially liberal declarations of his supporters over the years with visible disgust. He might not be exactly a Santorum on those issues, but he is a conservative Catholic with very old-fashioned provincial mores.  He is a traditionalist national socialist - gay marriage or even abortion is not something he approves of in the least. At best, he may tolerate them if it is useful: he would be more comfortable banning both if he could without political damage, but he does not consider either important enough to take a stand on.

He has said this almost openly in the past, and he has been very happy to confirm this today. "There is no contradiction: I am .... a guadalupano". Interesting choice of a word, though - and a dangerous one. While traditionalist rural Catholics will love this, "guadalupano" is the dirtiest word out there for the evangelicals here: when they say that Catholics are "guadalupanos" they mean they are "not Christian". So, while this has a potential to help among the faithful community, his choice of words limits the target audience.

Still, it make a lot of sense, if he believes that the urban lefties are sufficiently attached to him to tolerate the betrayal, rationalizing it with something like "he has to appeal to the masses". If they do, they are idiots. But, of course, love has a tendency to cause blindness.

[jaichind]

Looks like ex-PAN President Fox who backed PRI's Nieto will now also back PRI's Meade.  Not sure if he is even in PAN if he is going to break with PAN for 2 election cycles in a row.  Back in 2012 you can argue that Fox backed PRI to stop AMLO.   Not sure what is his logic this time.  Any he says "I'm with Meade, not with the PRI" when asked about this.

[ag]

Looks like ex-PAN President Fox who backed PRI's Nieto will now also back PRI's Meade.  Not sure if he is even in PAN if he is going to break with PAN for 2 election cycles in a row.  Back in 2012 you can argue that Fox backed PRI to stop AMLO.   Not sure what is his logic this time.  Any he says "I'm with Meade, not with the PRI" when asked about this.

Well, unlike EPN, Meade is not a proper PRIista. He was specifically nominated to appeal to Fox-type PANistas: moderately religious, with technocratic or pro-business preferences. Except for the party that nominated him and the manner of his nomination he is unobjectionable to Fox. In fact, supporting EPN was a much bigger step than supporting Meade, who could well have been a PANista candidate to begin with. And, obviously, Fox thinks Meade is a stronger candidate than anyone the PAN-PRD alliance will nominate. On that he is, probably, right. So, the "stop AMLO" logic still works.

[ag]

It seems the MORENA PT PES alliance will divide up the 300 Lowe House seats MORENA 150 PT 745 PES 75.  It seems AMLO is prioritizing getting PT and PES to back him for Prez race than seats in the lower house.  MORENA strength is clearly greater than the sum of PT and PES.

The 150-75-75 division does not, in fact, much matter. There are easily 150 districts where MORENA has exactly zero chance.  Even if they give some 10 non-impossible seats to PT, they can keep 140 for themselves. The PES seats will all be duds - the party leadership will get a seat or two high on the PR lists and will be happy about that.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-corruption/mexico-arrests-former-high-ranking-pri-official-in-corruption-probe-idUSKBN1EF0BL?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Another high ranking PRI official close to Nieto arrested for corruption.  AMLO's situation looking better and better.   MXN falls to the lowest level since early 2017 on AMLO concerns.

[jaichind]

Parametria poll (post PES alliance with MORENA-PT)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)      31
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    20
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)          19
Zavala (PAN rebel)              10
El Bronco                            2

Not clear why El Bronco is running.  There is no chance of victory and he is likely have to give up his governorship of NL just to run.



Party preference


Support of Prez by coalition showing Meade is running a bit ahead of PRI-PVEM-PANAL while Anaya is running behind PAN-PRD-MC

[jaichind]

Defoe poll has AMLO in strong position but with lots of undecided



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)      30
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)          15
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    15
Zavala (PAN rebel)                4
El Bronco                             2


Based only on party alliances it comes out to


MORENA-PT-PES                 29
PAN-PRD-MC                      21
PRI-PVEM-PANAL                19
Independent                        7

which seems to imply that both Anaya and Meade has some room to grow


Pure party support has PAN-PRD-MC in a strong position but some PAN vote will go to Zavala and some PRD support will go to AMLO


PAN           23
MORENA    22
PRI            16
PRD           11
PVEM          4
MC              3
PT               2
PANAL         1
PES             1

It is surprising how low PRI support it.  I think once the latest PRI corruption scandals blows over PRI support will rise again.

[TheSaint250]

Two articles of interest that I found:

One is a Politico profile piece on Obrador, and the other is on potential Russian hacking.

[BundouYMB]

Comparing AMLO to Trump is the dumbest hot take I've ever seen.

[jaichind]

http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones-2018/yerno-de-elba-esther-participa-en-morena-amlo


It seems that  Elba Esther's son-in-law is working for AMLO inside MORENA. Elba Esther Gordillo was the major PRI kingpin and head of the teachers union and is de factor founder of PANAL.  She historically has been very hostile to AMLO and worked overtime for PAN's Calderón to make sure that AMLO was defeated back in 2006.  She was arrested in 2013 for corruption.  This possible AMLO-Elba Esther Gordillo seems strange but plays into the narrative that AMLO might be learning the lessons of 2006.  This time around AMLO seems to want to get enough allies in the establishment camp to make sure that they do not all gang up on him toward the end of the election campaign like in 2006.  The alliance with Center-Right PES seems to be part of that.  Possible alliance with Elba Esther Gordillo seems to be the same.

It has been pointed out before but another funny part about this election is that both ex-PAN Presidents will not support the PAN-PRD candidate.  Fox will back Meade and Calderón obviously will back his wife Zavala.

[Former President tack50]

Comparing AMLO to Trump is the dumbest hot take I've ever seen.

Yeah. If you for some reason wanted to compare it to someone, your best bet would be left wing populists. For those you could either compare him with European ones (Pablo Iglesias, Jean Luc Melenchon, Jeremy Corbyn) or Latin American ones (basically those from the "pink tide": Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Hugo Chávez/Nicolás Maduro, Evo Morales, Lula da Silva/Dilma Rouseff or Rafael Correa/Lenin Moreno)

[BundouYMB]

I would argue there is no good comparison. AMLO is a unique candidate in a unique country. Pretty much all of these x = y comparisons between candidates in different countries (and indeed often from different sides of the globe) are awful pop journalism. The writer would rather make an easily digestible comparison to someone the reader is familiar with then write anything with any depth or complexity that would convey a good understanding of the situation.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Morena’s presidential hopeful Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appoints former lawmaker Tatiana Clouthier, daughter of PAN’s 1988 presidential candidate Manuel Clouthier, as campaign manager, according to release on his official website.

[jaichind]

Latest Consulta Mitofsky poll


 
AMLO    23.6 (+0.6)
Anaya   20.4(+0.4)
Meade   18.2 (-1.2)
Ind        10.0 (+0.

Looking at the gender breakdown it seems that Zavala is around 5% which is good news for Anaya.

[jaichind]

It seems 9 states will have governor elections: Chiapas, Mexico City, Morelos, Tabasco, Guanajuato, Yucatan, Jalisco, Puebla, Veracruz.  All except for the last 2 were last elected in 2012.  Puebla and Veracruz last had their election in 2016 but were "mini-elections" since the plan was for those seats to be up for election in 2018 so they can be unified with the Prez election schedule.

Pollster Massive Caller did some polls and shows PRI behind in all of them.  It had MORENA ahead in 6  PAN-PRD ahead in 2 and MC ahead in the last one

                      Current governor        Ahead in polls
Chiapas                  PVEM                     MORENA
Mexico City              PRD                      MORENA
Morelos                   PRD                      MORENA
Tabasco                   PRD                      MORENA
Guanajuato              PAN                          PAN
Yucatan                   PRI                           PAN
Jalisco                     PRI                            MC
Puebla                     PAN                      MORENA
Veracruz                  PAN                      MORENA


The polls seems to indicate dramatic shifts in vote share since 2012/2016 mostly away from PRI toward MORENA.  

Yucatan

2012
PRI-PVEM             50.81%
PAN                          41.07%
PRD-PT-MC                 5.38%



2018 poll
PAN-PRD-MC               34.2%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL         26.1%
Ind                              9.1%
MORENA-PES-PT           8.9%


Veracruz

2016
PAN-PRD                   34.39%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       30.27%
MORENA                      26.40%  



2018 poll
MORENA-PES-PT         30.1%
PAN-PRD-MC              28.6%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        14.9%
Ind.                             5.1%


Tabasco

2012
PRD-PT-MC               50.41%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       42.94%
PAN                           4.66%



2018 poll
MORENA-PES-PT         35.2%
PAN-PRD-MC              21.6%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        16.9%
Ind.                             4.7%


Puebla

2016
PAN-PT-PANAL             45.3%
PRI-PVEM-PES           33.5%
MORENA                     9.5%
PRD                            3.8%



2018 poll
MORENA-PES-PT         22.1%
PAN-PRD-MC              21.4%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        18.5%
Ind.                             7.7%


Morelos

2012
PRD-PT-MC               43.29%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       34.60%
PAN                            15.14%



2018 polls
MORENA-PES-PT       26.6%
PRD                         15.5%
PAN                         13.9%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL      11.5%
Ind                            5.1%


Jalisco

2012
PRI-PVEM                38.41%
MC                         34.04%
PAN                        20.38%
PRD                         3.38%
PANAL                      1.36%



2018 polls
MC                           29.3%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       16.1%
PAN                          10.1%
MORENA-PES-PT         9.6%
Ind                            6.8%


Guanajuato

2012
PAN-PANAL               48.02%
PRI-PVEM                 40.98%
PRD                          5.15%



2018 poll
PAN-PRD-MC              29.7%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        20.2%
MORENA-PES-PT          8.8%
Ind                             7.5%


Mexico City

2012
PRD-PT-MC              63.58%
PRI-PVEM                19.73%
PAN                        13.61%



2018 poll
MORENA-PES-PT        32.9%
PAN-PRD-MC              17.0%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        13.4%
Ind                             7.4%


Chiapas

2012
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        67.14%
PRD-PT-MC                17.41%
PAN                            9.28%



2018 poll
MORENA-PES-PT        33.8%
PAN-PRD-MC              15.7%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL        13.1%
Ind                             8.3%

[jaichind]

El Universal poll




AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       32
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           26
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     16
Zavala (PAN rebel)                4
El Bronco                              2

Last couple of months has been endless scandals on the corruption of ex-PRI governors.  Anaya has been able to leverage that to get himself to be in a solid second place and well placed to be the anti-AMLO.  One has to give Anaya a lot credit to get this far.  He managed to push aside PAN front runner Zavala to get the PAN nomination as well as seal up a PAN-PRD-MC alliance.  Then he beat back Meade which was a threat to win part of the PAN vote base to third place and at the same time marginalize Zavala in the polls.  Well played so far.

[Bojicat]

I contend that AMLO will not make it to the end. A deep state DOES exist in Mexico, made up of the same military/police/intelligence agency complex that undid Morsi in Egypt. The Mexican deep state loathes AMLO and will unleash every cryptic, underhanded deed it can on him.

The AMLO wave will recede (by hook or by crook).

The real race will be between those two dissolute, venal parties every Mexican loves to hate and dreads having to choose between, the PAN & the PRI. The swell of distaste for Pena Nieto (and his party) is quite heavy (if you live in Mexico, you've probably heard an earful).  I predict this distaste, this urge for something "new' (i.e., a switch from one breakable musical chair to another), will be enough to send ANAYA to Los Pinos this year.

[ag]

Yeah, Anaya is playing it well, and Meade has done everything wrong. Pretty much the only people who think he still has a chance work for the government at this point. Anaya is slowly but surely emerging as the anti-AMLO in this race. The problem for him is that at this point, among those who respond to this question, he is losing one-on-one to AMLO 38% to 46% - though this is much closer than either of them is demolishing Meade one-on-one. 

The important thing now is what the PRI machine will do. Of course, the Atlacomulco group is going to stick with Meade - Peña Nieto has enough control there. But as for the rest, chunks are going to simply try to concentrate on other offices, while other chunks will try to make the deals with AMLO and Anaya. Here, alas AMLO should have an advantage - he is an old PRI apparatchik, who knows how those people tick. But the technocratic wing of the party is about to go to Anaya, methinks. In fact, if a month ago some people were evasive, these days they increasingly are prone to say both that Meade has no chance and that they personally would rather not vote for him.

Now, it is still Likely AMLO - he is still ahead even though consolidation of those who hate him has started. And he does have a lot more charisma than Anaya. But Anaya has gone a lot further than I would have thought possible and he is about to dispose of Meade.

[ag]

I contend that AMLO will not make it to the end. A deep state DOES exist in Mexico, made up of the same military/police/intelligence agency complex that undid Morsi in Egypt. The Mexican deep state loathes AMLO and will unleash every cryptic, underhanded deed it can on him.

The AMLO wave will recede (by hook or by crook).

The real race will be between those two dissolute, venal parties every Mexican loves to hate and dreads having to choose between, the PAN & the PRI. The swell of distaste for Pena Nieto (and his party) is quite heavy (if you live in Mexico, you've probably heard an earful).  I predict this distaste, this urge for something "new' (i.e., a switch from one breakable musical chair to another), will be enough to send ANAYA to Los Pinos this year.

Let us not forget, that AMLO is the master of Mexican machine politics. He is an old-time PRIista apparatchik, and most of those people who have simbolized the ancien regime now work for him (including such dinosaurs as Manuel Bartlett, the guy who pretty much personally stole the election from Cardenas back in 1988). He is actively expanding the political machine by making tie-ups with some of the least savory characters, both in politics and in business. So, let us not be oversimplistic of who is in cahoots with the "deep state", whatever that means.

Of course, a lot of people find him scary, and it has already twice cost him election in the past, when much of the electorate consolidated against him. But he will, certainly, be among the two front-runners, and, at this point, his chances of victory should be taken to be something like 2:1. Alas, Mexico is in for a bout of the old national socialist restauration - except, this time, on a personalist basis, unrestricted by the old party institutions. How long it will take us to recover I do not know, but I would conjecture that the next 2-3 decades will be lost.

[jaichind]

I am surprised at how badly Meade is doing and that we seem to be headed toward a re-run of 2006.  Meade is nowhere as unpopular as Madrazo was.  I have to imagine some sort Meade recovery as the headlines move away from all those PRI ex-governor scandals.

Also without knowing much I think if Anaya thinks he can dispose of Meade in the polls and then face off with AMLO and win just like Calderón did in 2006 he might be in for a surprise.  The issue here is that Anaya has shown himself to be a ruthless political operator.  The PRI machine in the North had no problems backing Calderón in 2006 to stop AMLO because they figured Calderón was not a threat to their existence whereas AMLO was.  They might view Aanya differently given his track record so far and it is far from assured that they will back Anaya to stop AMLO.  It might end up being the other way around especially when it seems AMLO learned his lesson from 2006 and this time around show he is willing to work with the establishment.  In other words Anaya seems to think he will get to run against Lula 1994 when he might be getting Lula 2002 as his main opponent.

[jaichind]

For some reason Predictit did not get the memo that PRI will nominate Meade and not Chong.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3894/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Mexico-in-2018

I also find it funny that Predictit has Zavala odds a bit better than Anaya when she is polling in the single digits.  To be fair this is surprising to me as well.  When she started her independent run I figured she could put a vote share at least in the low teens.

[Bojicat]

For some reason Predictit did not get the memo that PRI will nominate Meade and not Chong.

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3894/Who-will-be-elected-president-of-Mexico-in-2018

I also find it funny that Predictit has Zavala odds a bit better than Anaya when she is polling in the single digits.  To be fair this is surprising to me as well.  When she started her independent run I figured she could put a vote share at least in the low teens.

   

Funny that you should bring that up, Jaichind, because I am the one who's been writing comments on Predict-It with regard to the very facts you mention above (do you also comment on Predict-It?). The clerks at Predict-It have not kept up with developments for about three months now. Someone is asleep at the wheel there. Atlas commentators seem more 'with-it'. We should be proud of that fact.

I'll tell all readers now, AMLO will NOT be President of Mexico. You can all ridicule me, and tear me down later if I am wrong all you please, but the 'resistance' machinery here is strong. In fact, if Meade and the PRI sense a 3rd-place position is looming for them, and AMLO appears to be touching the brass ring, they'll boost up ANAYA faster than an electro-charge.

They would rather bury AMLO in Chapultepec Forest than see him enthroned there.

[Bojicat]

By the way, Jaichind. I borrowed your very good El Universal poll and used your smart comment about ZAVALA in Predict-It. I owe you a finders fee.