Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Reuters reports that Parametria poll has AMLO also ahead

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-election/mexican-leftist-holds-double-digit-lead-in-presidential-race-poll-idUSKBN1FR0QG

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       34
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           23
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     18
Zavala (PAN rebel)                7
El Bronco                              2
Piter(PRD rebel)                    2

[jaichind]

Thanks, Jaichind, for your always helpful and wonderful supply of charts and micro-data.  

Do you think it also possible that marginal PRI and PRD voters are in reality paying pollsters lip service to the phenomenon-de-jour which is AMLO, joining in his adulation carnival, then will, in the end, fall-in with the established party (and party leader) they've been stubbornly voting for all of their lives?

I do not know too much at the ground level. I would imagine if Meade is a credible candidate on the stump and we get closer to the election AND Meade is not too far behind in the polls, that the PRI machine can get PRI voters to go back to Meade.  Anaya on the other hand risks losing the PRD vote due to ideological differences and that really comes down to are the PRD grassroots willing to head their PRD central leadership to vote Anaya.

BTW for comparison purposes If you took the 2015 Lower House election results and then replicate the alliances for 2018 you get

Lower House
MORENA-PT-PES      15.31
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     41.88
PAN-PRD-MC             42.20

I counted PH as part of the PAN-PRD-MC which has been defunct since 2015 as part of PAN-PRD-MC as it was really a PAN splinter and there were rumors that PH was the creation of ex-PAN president Calderón, husband of Zavala.  These numbers are normalized for the NULL and it shows the pro-MORENA swing relative to 2015 since now it is a 3 way tie for Lower House vote.  AMLO polls even better than MORENA.

[jaichind]

SDP poll (which seems have a historical pro-MORENA lean) has AMLO way ahead but Meade in second place


AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       39.4 (+0.3)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     25.7 (-0.4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           19.5 (+1.8  )
Zavala (PAN rebel)                7.2 (-0.7)
El Bronco                              2.6 (-0.3)
Piter(PRD rebel)                    1.4

But I guess follows the other poll trends of Anaya gaining.

[jaichind]

An El País poll of polls has AMLO ahead with Anaya and Meade in a close race for second



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       36.8
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           27.4
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     24.7
Zavala (PAN rebel)                6.8
El Bronco                              2.8

A poll of polls for party support has better news for Meade and Anaya since it shows that the PAN-PRD-MC bloc and PRI-PVEM-PANAL are still bigger than the MORENA-PT-PES although the gap has been closing fast last year.


This should give some hope to Meade and to some extent Anaya that once the election campaigning starts and the race gets more partisan and their core supporters will swing back.  Not sure this will help Anaya as much as I think a good part of the PRD vote will move to AMLO and stay there.

[jaichind]

Yeah, actually, it is a bit surprising. Of course, within Mexico City the only hopeless district (15th, Benito Juarez) went to PES, but then the difficult Miguel Hidalgo district goes to Morena. I Guanajuato Morena did take the ony district where they stand any chance whatsoever (Valle de Santiago), but also a lot of hopeless ones. Morena also takes several Nezahualcoyotl districts - even though this is one of the last real pockets of PRD strength (ok, perhaps they are just trying to destroy PRD and think they can). PT, though, is stuck with the PRIista Atlacomulco and likely PANista Naucalpan. But nothing is that clear.

Of course, it remains to see who are the actual candidates. PES does not have many people to staff the lists. It could well be that they will simply take obradorista guys who would have otherwise run as Morena, and the only think PESista or PTista about the candidates would be the money that the vote for them will send.

I thought about this some more.  One theory I have about why AMLO is so generous is the need to avoid the 8% rule.  If it becomes a close 3 way race between the 3 blocs a small vote share advantage could translate into a large advantage in the FPTP seats.  If so there is a chance that the total MORENA-PT-PES seat count could be constrained by the 8% rule.  But if a large number of FPTP winners have the party label of PT or PES, AMLO get get around this.

Just to game it out.  Say things go well for AMLO and MORENA-PT-PES wins 38% of the non-null PR vote (MORENA 30% PT 4% PES 4%) and 160 out of 300 FPTP seats.  

If AMLO allocated seats according to relative strength of the 3 parties then the 160 winners will most likely be (140 MORENA 10 PT 10 PES.)  But then MORENA will hit the 8% rule since

30%+8% = 38% * 500 seats = 190 seats.  But MORENA would have won 140 seats + (30%*200) = 200 seats of which 10 would be taken away.

Now if we go with the current distribution of seats the 160 winners would be (80 MORENA 40 PT 40 PES) and MORENA is way below the 8% rule cap.  Now doing the 8% rule on PES or PT would yield.

4%+8% = 12% * 500 = 60 seats.  PT or PES would have won 40 + (4%*200) = 48 seats which is also below the 8% rule.

Which means  MORENA-PT-PES  would win a total of 236 out of 500 seats and the getting some PRD or MC defectors after the election could fetch AMLO a majority in the Lower House.

[jaichind]

It seems the PAN-PRD-MC candidate for governor of  Veracruz is Miguel Ángel Yunes Márquez


Who is the son of current PAN governor Miguel Ángel Yunes Linares

[ag]

Well, it does seem unfair to apply a no-reelection clause to a governor, whose term has been cut to 2 years!

[jaichind]

El Economista poll with front runners gaining against the weaker candidates



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       27.1 (+3.5)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           22.3 (+1.0)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     18.0 (-0.2)
Ind                                       8.0 (-2.0)  (Zavala, El Bronco,Piter)


More people now believe that AMLO will win


AMLO stronger with higher educated voters, Meade stronger with low educated voters.  Sort of goes against the narrative of AMLO as populist.




Shift of the 2012 Prez vote.  It seems most of the 2012 PRD vote has go over to AMLO while the 2012 PRI vote see some losses to both AMLO and Anaya.

[jaichind]

El Reforma poll



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       33  (+2)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           25 (+6)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     14  (-3)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 4 (-4)
El Bronco                              2 (--)

Anti-AMLO vote consolidating around Anaya.  Meade has to reverse this or else he is toast.
 

[jaichind]

Markets Ignore Radical Leftist Mounting Big Lead in Mexico Polls

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-16/markets-ignore-radical-leftist-mounting-big-lead-in-mexico-polls?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google

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[jaichind]

The Mexico "pre-campaign" period, a period theoretically to be used for party primaries to choose their candidates, has ended.  Of course this entire period everyone knew who the various party candidates were going to be.  The idea of this "pre-campaign" charade is for all the candidates (known as pre-candidates) to get around campaign spending limits by spending on PR for their "primary" when in reality it is just for the general election campaign.

Now this period is over and AMLO, Anaya, and Meade having become official candidates of MORENA-PT-PES, PAN-PRD-MC, and PRI-PVEM-PANAL we can move on to the real election campaign which does not start, officially, until March 30th.

[jaichind]

Latest Reuters reports on Parametria poll has AMLO extending lead as Anaya and Meade loses ground to Zavala and El Bronco.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-election-exclusive/exclusive-mexico-left-wing-candidates-lead-widens-as-rivals-bicker-poll-idUSKCN1GJ0IK?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=twitter
 
AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       35 (+1)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           21 (-2)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     16 (-2)
Zavala (PAN rebel)               10 (+3)
El Bronco                              5 (+3)

[jaichind]

Ipsos poll has AMLO way ahead

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       36.3
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     22.7
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           15.1
Zavala (PAN rebel)                2.1
El Bronco                              1.1
Piter(PRD rebel)                    0.4

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll for  Veracruz governor has MORENA in neck-to-neck race with PRI

MORENA-PES-PT     26.8
PRI-PVEM               26.1
PAN-PRD-MC          20.7

[jaichind]

An El País poll of polls has the two front runners gaining ground since Feb



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       37.8 (+1.0)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           29.2 (+1.8  )
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     23.8 (-0.9)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                5.7  (-1.1)
El Bronco                              2.6  (-0.2)

[jaichind]

Facebook survey has Meade second

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       39.5  (+1.1)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     24.3  (-1.4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           19.5  (---)
Zavala (PAN rebel)                8.0  (+0.8  )
El Bronco                              3.4 (+0.8  )
Piter(PRD rebel)                    0.8 (-0.6)



Which is based on adding up party support

[jaichind]

Guanajuato governor race has PAN-PRD-MC way ahead.  It seems PRI-PVEM-PANAL failed to form an alliance here.

PAN-PRD-MC       52
PRI                     22
MORENA-PT-PES  21
PVEM                   4
PANAL                  1



Vote for House and Senate also has PAN way ahead in this PAN stronegold

[jaichind]

Another Veracruz governor poll seem to match Massive Caller poll that has PAN-PRD-MC in third place

MORENA-PES-PT     37.6
PRI-PVEM               36.1
PAN-PRD-MC          17.2
PANAL                     1.4

[jaichind]

Massive Caller poll on Chihuahua Senate race has PAN-PRD-MC way ahead with MORENA-PT-PES and PRI-PVEM-PANAL fighting for second

PAN-PRD-MC         28.17
MORENA-PT-PES    17.61
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   17.52

[jaichind]

It seems Anaya is spending most of his time trying to knock Meade out of the race so he can take on AMLO 1-on-1 and repeat the 2006 experience.  He has said that when he takes power he will make sure that all the corruption from this PRI administration will be investigated and punished.  I guess the main risk there is that he could end up consolidating the old PRI machine vote behind Meade out of protection instead of going to him to stop AMLO.  Worse if the old PRI machine vote perceive Anaya as a bigger danger than AMLO  then they can also swing behind AMLO. 

Another reason why the 2006 strategy might not work 100% is the existence of  PAN PRI and PRD dissidents in the form of Zavala, El Bronco and Piter.  This gives options for voters of all stripes that does not want to vote AMLO but detest PRI corruption another option other than Anaya.  If enough of them exercise that option Anaya still comes up short.

It seems to me that even if Anaya completely destroys Meade but does it in an aggressive way there will still be a floor of 20% for PRI as the core PRI vote circles wagons in protection.  AMLO seem to have a floor of 35%.  So assuming  Zavala, El Bronco and Piter all take at worst 7%, Aanya has a very narrow band to defeat AMLO 37% to 35%.  Not being so aggressive on PRI will let Meade self-implode and then the floor on the PRI vote might be lower freeing up more votes for Anaya.

[jaichind]

Encuesta Ciudadana poll

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       34
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     21
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           13
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 5
El Bronco                              1
Piter(PRD rebel)                    1


From there and other polls it projects

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       39
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     29
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           22
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 6
El Bronco                              3

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/google-searches-may-signal-trouble-for-mexico-election-favorite

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[Dr. MB]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/google-searches-may-signal-trouble-for-mexico-election-favorite

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Until there's actual polling I don't really think this has much of an impact.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-12/google-searches-may-signal-trouble-for-mexico-election-favorite

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lol

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

question: why is MORENA and PT working with PES when the PES are seemingly right-wing?