Mexican Elections 2017-18

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Yet another turnaround in the Chiapas gubernatorial election: the PVEM, with two satellite parties (Partido Chiapas Unidos and Podemos Mover a Chiapas), has broken off the coalition with the PRI-Panal and registered its own gubernatorial candidate, Tuxtla Gutiérrez mayor (on leave) Fernando Castellanos.

As a bit of background here on why this is relevant: Chiapas was the strongest state for the faux Greens in both 2012 and 2015, thanks to the election of PVEM governor Manuel 'El Güero' Velasco Coello in coalition with the PRI in 2012. Although the PRI has been claiming that, as part of the deal six years ago, it is their turn now, the PVEM - which is the dominant party in the state - was understandably unwilling to play along, particularly since Manuel Velasco (the Potemkin governor) is ambitious. In January, as it became clear that PRI senator Roberto Albores Gleason would be imposed as the gubernatorial candidate by Los Pinos and the PRI's powers that be, 14 out of 16 PVEM state deputies led by state party president Eduardo Ramírez Aguilar resigned. However, in early February, the PRI-PVEM-Panal-CU-PMC coalition was formalized... until about two weeks later, the state PVEM broke off the coalition with the PRI... but within a week they were forced to get back in line by the national PVEM. Therefore, it seemed that the Greens would go in coalition with the PRI et al. in Chiapas under priista gubernatorial candidate, Roberto Albores, who in the polls is a distant second to Morena's candidate Rutilio Escandón (as I wrote in my last post, the morenista candidate is seen as being close to Velasco). Velasco's maternal grandfather is supporting AMLO and, tellingly, Velasco declined an offer from the PVEM to run for Senate.

About two weeks ago, the TEPJF invalidated the 'Todos por Chiapas' PRI-PVEM et al. coalition in Chiapas over some rather minor legal screw-up (the Panal wasn't part of the coalition for the state legislature) and gave them some days to get their ducks in a row. However, the PVEM - now backed by the national party - took advantage of this to break off the coalition with the PRI and launch their own gubernatorial candidate, Fernando Castellanos. Initially, the state electoral institute invalidated Castellanos' registration (because he didn't leave office 120 days before the election), but the state electoral tribunal has approved his registration on appeal. Amusingly, Albores re-registered his candidacy claiming the support of the PVEM and the two local parties.

There are rumours that Albores wants to drop out, but that would be an even greater disaster for the PRI. For a different take on the current crisis, EPN's trusted operator Luis Miranda Nava (former secretary of social development), who is in a feud with Velasco, may have killed the local coalition because he claimed that the PVEM's candidates weren't campaigning.
 
The local leader of the PRD sees Velasco's hand in this latest crisis, arguing that the governor wants Castellanos to campaign for a bit to finish off the PRI and bring people to the PVEM, before Velasco gets him to drop out in Morena's favour (claiming that the state government is operating for Morena's gubernatorial candidate and AMLO). I can't say that I disagree with this interpretation...

As a sure-sign that the PRI is in very dire straits, the typically 'loyal' PVEM has its own candidates in Puebla, Tabasco, Guanajuato, Jalisco and CDMX (and, desperate to win votes, the Greens have dusted off their old proposal for the death penalty).

[jaichind]

How interesting.  I always figured something like this will take place.  The surge of MORENA in Chiapas clearly has Velasco's fingers all over it.  Of course it seems to me in the overall economic context this is reasonable since it is critical that Chiapas align itself politically to those in power at the center given the critical nature of federal subsidies in the political economy of Chiapas.  And this year that most likely will be AMLO.

I guess after the election the Chiapas branch of PVEM will align with MORENA. 

For Chiapas Senate ex-PRD governor Salazar seems to be running as an independent and could very well come in second behind MORENA.  I wonder if he is also a  Velasco plant to split the anti-MORENA vote.  I think  Salazar PRD successor Sabines actually put him in jail for a while so I assume he will be glad to align himself with whatever forces that can help him get payback.

[jaichind]

It seems the PAN-PRD-MC candidate for governor in Puebla is the wife of the PAN governor in 2010-2016 period.  Just like the PAN-PRD-MC candidate for Veracruz is the son of the PAN governor of 2016-2018.

[jaichind]

Various poll of polls does not show Anaya finishing of Meade to force Meade->Aanya tactical voting.  If anything Meade is gaining a bit of ground last week or two

[jaichind]

Reforma poll.  AMLO above 50% and no sign of total Meade collapse.  Zavala support does not seem to have flowed to Anaya.  Unless there is some major AMLO blowup I do not see how he can be beaten

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       52 (+4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           26  (-4)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     19 (+2)
El Bronco                               3 (+1)



Party support for House election are

MORENA    42 (+6)
PT               3 (-2)
PES             1 (--)
PAN           20 (-4)
PRD             5 (--)
MC              4 (--)
PRI            18 (+2)
PVEM           3 (--)
PANAL          2 (--)

Which means it is

MORENA-PT-PES    46 (+4)
PAN-PRD-MC         29 (-4)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   23 (+2)

PANAL and PES in danger of being de-registered  

[jaichind]

Billionaire's Employees Get Urgent Warning as Mexico Vote Nears

https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/2018/05/30/billionaire-s-employees-get-urgent-warning-as-mexico-vote-nears

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Stuff like this works in Japan but most likely will backfire in Mexico.

[jaichind]

Gii360 Impact Group poll has El Bronco at a relatively high number

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       45
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           21
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     16
El Bronco                               7

Lower House vote
MORENA     32
PT               2
PES             1
PAN           19
PRD            4
MC              2
PRI            17
PVEM          3
PANAL        1

MORENA-PT-PES   35
PAN-PRD-MC        25
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   21

Senate vote is similar
MORENA     32
PT               2
PES             1
PAN           18
PRD            3
MC              2
PRI            17
PVEM          3
PANAL        1

MORENA-PT-PES   35
PAN-PRD-MC        23
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   21

[jaichind]

El Financiero poll has AMLO at 50% and no realistic chance of tactical voting since Anaya and Meade are nearly tied.

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       50 (+4)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           24 (-2)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     22(+2)
El Bronco                               4(+1)



Vote for Lower House

MORENA    44(+3)
PAN           21(-3)
PRI            19(--)
PRD            6(+1)

[jaichind]

Most of the political violence seems to be the in the South with PRI getting a larger share of being the victim   

[jaichind]

At 18, Paola González is Mexico’s youngest candidate in July 1 election

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/at-18-paola-gonzalez-is-mexicos-youngest-candidate/

An 18 year old is running for mayor on the MORENA ticket.  Her argument, I think, is "unlike other candidates I have no record of corruption since I have no political record whatsoever." 

[Hash]

It seems the PAN-PRD-MC candidate for governor in Puebla is the wife of the PAN governor in 2010-2016 period.  Just like the PAN-PRD-MC candidate for Veracruz is the son of the PAN governor of 2016-2018.

Yes, Martha Erika Alonso is the wife of former governor Rafael Moreno Valle, who has been the effective panista political boss of Puebla since 2010 (the current governor, Tony Gali, elected in 2016, is also from Moreno Valle's group). She has never held elected office, but was leader of the state party from 2015 and 2017, and as first lady she spent a lot of money to promote her own image and build her stature using the state DIF (family development agency). Moreno Valle himself is a pluri candidate for Senate on the PAN list.

It is widely suspected, although those involved deny it, that the gubernatorial candidacy of Moreno Valle's wife (and Moreno Valle's pluri spot), was the compensation prize given in exchange for Moreno Valle dropping his presidential bid.

Moreno Valle is a particularly cunning political operator. He was a priista (until 2006), close in his time to La Maestra, and has retained most of his old priista political habits -- that is, autocratic, corrupt, incompetence/ineffectiveness concealed by profligate government ad spending, working to the benefit of his own image and a favoured clique and operating on the margins between legality and illegality. He was the first non-priista governor in the state's history, coming after the scandal-ridden administration of the fabled 'gober precioso' Mario Marín, but it was a change in name only: the old habits, and the old authoritarianism, survived.

Before leaving office, he too arranged for the adoption of an "impunity package" (a 'pocket' attorney general), and got his hand-picked successor - Tony Gali, who was mayor of Puebla (city) and infrastructure secretary before that (and a business magnate running offshore businesses in Panama), elected as governor in 2016. The personal imperative for retaining political control is obvious.

Here is a particularly thorough Proceso article from 2017 which rips Moreno Valle's record apart: https://www.proceso.com.mx/472201/moreno-valle-riesgo-pais

In both Puebla and Veracruz, Morena is attacking the 'dynasty politics' of the PAN -- Morena et al.'s candidate in Puebla, old senator Miguel Barbosa (ironically a former ally of Moreno Valle until 2016... and a former opponent of AMLO) has repeatedly claimed that Moreno Valle is seeking reelection through his wife and controversially drew historical references to the Mexican Adventure/the Battle of Puebla by comparing Moreno Valle to Maximilian and that Puebla would not accept another monarch.

[jaichind]

How interesting.  Thanks for info.  It seems to me that the historical voting record of Puebla is pretty close to national average.  So if ALMO is well ahead and likely to win nationally then MORENA should win in Puebla when AMLO has the additional nepotism line of attack on the PAN.

[jaichind]

A new scandal hits Anaya where a video allegedly shows that money laundry was used to disguise campaign fiance for Anaya's campaign.     Aanya blames PRI for this "hatchet job".  Of course the person that gains from all this is AMLO.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/pri-blamed-for-video-accusing-candidate-of-money-laundering/

[Hash]

A new scandal hits Anaya where a video allegedly shows that money laundry was used to disguise campaign fiance for Anaya's campaign.     Aanya blames PRI for this "hatchet job".  Of course the person that gains from all this is AMLO.

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/pri-blamed-for-video-accusing-candidate-of-money-laundering/

Not so much a new scandal as the revival of the old money laundering scandal from February, now with the added substantiation of a damming video and the claim that the money laundered was not only to enrich Anaya but also to finance his campaign.

The original scandal was a complex money laundering/triangulation scheme from the sale of property in Querétaro. With the help of a businessman/real estate developer specialized in tax schemes, Manuel Barreiro, Anaya sold an industrial property he got for 10 million pesos for 54 million pesos in 2016. The money, sourced from and travelling through tax havens and foreign countries, made its way to Anaya through shell companies created by front men for the purpose of transferring funds to Anaya. The new video shows a man identified as Barreiro's brother discussing his family's ties to Anaya, the scandal, the modus operandi and how it is to allegedly finance his campaign.

Anaya, then as now, has responded with renewed anger and indignation against what he has always insisted is a sinister priista plot concocted between Meade, Videgaray, EPN and the federal government in their 'dirty war' against him. He has also reiterated that he would throw EPN in jail if he was to be proven guilty. Meade has fired back, reusing Anaya's "insulting and unacceptable" line (in English) against him, while AMLO is trying very hard not to laugh. Given that both political money laundering schemes and priista dirty tricks are part and parcel of Mexican politics, it is hard to determine who to believe, but the revival of an old scandal will probably block any polling gains by Anaya. In February, the scandal didn't really help Meade, but it did block his momentum and stop his growth in polls. Obviously, this is a stupid thing to be doing if the end goal is to keep the runaway favourite from winning, particularly given that the campaign is basically over.

Jorge Castañeda, who is one of Anaya's leading surrogates now, claims that there is an "impunity pact" between EPN and AMLO. The federal government says this is 'fake news', and the claim is also denied by the AMLO campaign, which retorts that the only story here is that Anaya has gone rogue and broken the old 'PRIAN' pact.

http://www.aztecanoticias.com.mx/se-revela-nexo-entre-ricardo-anaya-y-manuel-barreiro/2460353
https://adnpolitico.com/presidencia/2018/06/07/difunden-nuevos-datos-de-presunta-corrupcion-de-anaya-el-panista-culpa-a-epn

[jaichind]

I guess if PRI is behind this new leaked video is not for PRI to win but more to help PRI down-ballot to position PRI as the the alternative to MORENA as opposed to PAN after the election.

[jaichind]

Mitofsky - change relative to May in terms of effective vote since we are getting close to election day

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       47.8 (+3.3)
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           26.1 (-1.9)
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    22.0 (+2.2)
El Bronco                              4.1 (+0.1)



Anaya going backwards in his attempt to knock out Meade so he can try to catch-up based on strategic anti-AMLO voting.

[jaichind]

Mexico sovereign 5 year CDS have surged 50% since April on views that AMLO victory is now very likely.  Last time the Mexico 5 year CDS was this high is right after the election of Trump.

[jaichind]

Third and last Prez debate tonight.  Last chance for AMLO to stumble.

[jaichind]

Third debate took place.  Was suppose about economic issues but ended up with all 3 major candidates throwing accusations of corruption at each other.   Net winner should be AMLO since the narrative of the election really did not change.  Even pro-PAN massive caller poll seems to have AMLO winning the debate.

[Hash]

Third debate took place.  Was suppose about economic issues but ended up with all 3 major candidates throwing accusations of corruption at each other.   Net winner should be AMLO since the narrative of the election really did not change.

Well, they did talk about economic issues (as well as education, healthcare, poverty etc.), but the media's main takeaways were obviously all the mudslinging and free-for-all exchange of accusations between the three major candidates. Anaya went for the big theatrics, to the point where he challenged AMLO to drop out if the claim he was making against him was proven; AMLO got a bit riled up but took it in strides, and ended up saying that he wouldn't put Anaya in jail. Meade went against AMLO and Anaya, but his attacks were weak and unimpressive, even going to the point of holding up a fake DVD cover for a fake movie about AMLO's 'catastrophic' 2018-24 presidency which mostly generated memes and people asking for it on Netflix. Anaya reiterated his big Trumpian theatrical claim to go after EPN and Meade (i.e. lock them up), which I find to be very irritating, as well as his claims of a 'EPN-AMLO pact' to which AMLO had a good comeback. I won't bother thinking about 'who won' since it doesn't matter.

The discussion of the actual topics of the debate further revealed, once again, that none of these clowns have any coherent idea about what to do or any depth of understanding about the reality of the issues. AMLO's go-to answer to every question is 'end corruption', occasionally with some stuff about 'neoliberalism'. Anaya speaks well and presents himself well, but he is basically proposing unrealistic nonsense which may work in Norway or Liechtenstein -- last night, for example, he basically promised tablets/smartphones for everyone, giving away tablets to all high school and post-sec students, free public internet in every school and public place (!?) and having every kid learn English thanks to technologies and/or Mexicans in the US (all of this, of course, without even raising taxes!).

Because of my interests and my own experience working in a public school in Mexico, I paid attention to their comments on education (and, even more specifically, whatever they said about English classes), and I can certify that none of them have any idea what they're talking about (except, maybe, Anaya, who kind of spoke some sense for once). AMLO's 'views' on education are particularly horrifying, especially since it's pretty clear he has no idea what he's talking about and buys into claims that the education reform is some sort of sordid neoliberal plot imposed by the IMF (when in reality the education reform is a whole bunch of nothing which had good intentions on paper but has amounted to jack squat in practice).

As always, El Bronco was just there for the memes and comedic relief. Still can't get over his own FBI, 'Facebook Bronco Investigation'.

[Hash]

A new Reforma poll on the Morelos gubernatorial race: nothing to see here.

Cuauhtémoc Blanco 'Cuau' (Morena-PT-PES) 50%
Rodrigo Gayosso (PRD-PSD) 15%
Víctor Caballero (PAN-MC) 14%
Jorge Meade Ocaranza (PRI) 8%
Nadia Luz Lara (PVEM) 5%
Fidel Demédicis (Ind.) 4%
Alejandro Vera (Panal) 3%
Mario Rojas (PH) 1%

Morena-PT-PES' gubernatorial candidate and runaway favourite in the state is Cuauhtémoc Blanco 'Cuau', mayor of Cuernavaca since 2015. Blanco is a former professional footballer, who played for the América and the national team (until 2014), before getting into politics as mayor of the state capital of Cuernavaca, elected for the small 'Social Democratic Party' (PSD). 'Cuau' is a populist loudmouth and the arch-nemesis of incumbent governor Graco Ramírez (PRD). Graco, who thinks 'Cuau' is a boor, has accused him of being connected to organized crime and drug trafficking (in March 2017, the secretary-general of the municipality resigned, accused of having been a lawyer to three brothers connected to the Beltrán Leyva cartel). In 2017, the state attorney general - the cousin of Graco's ex-wife - began investigating Blanco's connection to the assassination of a local businessman. 'Cuau' is also accused of having been paid 7 million pesos by the PSD to be the party's candidate in 2015. In December 2016, the state congress opened three procedures to remove Blanco from office: definitive suspension, an impeachment trial (juicio político) and 'revocation of mandate', which were all expeditiously approved by large majorities. 'Cuau' obtained an injunction and the Supreme Court later suspended the impeachment trial, a suspension which the Court earlier this year.

The PRD candidate is Rodrigo Gayosso, the stepson of incumbent (and very unpopular) governor Graco Ramírez. Besides the accusations of nepotism, Gayosso - who is a former priista who greatly benefited from the stepdad's help - is also accused of, among other things, corruption, threatening opponents and a ridiculously expensive marriage. Gayosso is again accusing 'Cuau' of ties to organized crime and narcos, but those claims probably ring hollow given the explosion of drug-related violence in the state under Graco Ramírez. His controversial candidacy broke up the Frente in Morelos, with the PAN and MC supporting Víctor Caballero, a former health secretary under PAN governor Marco Antonio Adame Castillo (2006-2012). He has accused the incumbent governor of illegally using public resources to favour Gayosso, but Caballero himself has been accused of having authorized undue severance payments to six civil servants in his final days as health secretary in 2012 (at a loss of nearly 3 million pesos to public coffers).

Standing little chance, the PRI's candidate Jorge Meade Ocaranza is an old priista apparatchik who was most recently federal delegate of the SEDESOL in Morelos from 2012 to 2017.

[jaichind]

Because of my interests and my own experience working in a public school in Mexico, I paid attention to their comments on education (and, even more specifically, whatever they said about English classes), and I can certify that none of them have any idea what they're talking about (except, maybe, Anaya, who kind of spoke some sense for once). AMLO's 'views' on education are particularly horrifying, especially since it's pretty clear he has no idea what he's talking about and buys into claims that the education reform is some sort of sordid neoliberal plot imposed by the IMF (when in reality the education reform is a whole bunch of nothing which had good intentions on paper but has amounted to jack squat in practice).
 

How interesting.  Any thoughts from you on the education reform EPN put in place? SNTE is up in arms over that and it seems is backing their ancient enemy AMLO just to overturn it.  Do you think AMLO will overturn those reforms if and when he gets into office ?

[jaichind]

Cuauhtémoc Blanco got elected in 2015 as mayor of  Cuernavaca on the PSD ticket.  I guess he has since defected to MORENA and his name plus the AMLO surge it seems have handed him the governorship.  I guess he has monkey branched his way to the top.  Impressive.

[jaichind]

Latest BNP Paribas report in Mexico elections. 

https://globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com/r/2018_MX_Election_tracker_FEB.pdf?t=BGw_FyM5Pht0XnDj1C-wC&stream=true

A JP Morgan report indicates that
a) Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s focus in helping Morena candidates for Senate and lower house may explain renewed strength in his party in recent weeks, JPMorgan says in an emailed research report.
b) If PRI’s Jose Antonio Meade overtakes PAN-PRD’s Ricardo Anaya, he still won’t be able to catch Lopez Obrador, though the battle for second place will be important to maintaining a solid presence in Congress for either bloc
c) Morena likely to win 4-5 governorships, simple majority in lower house [I assume the governorship are Chiapas, Distrito Federal, Morelos, Tabasco with possible wins in Puebla
 and Veracruz so in my view it should be 4-6 governorships)
d) While a lot can still change, pragmatism is likely to dominate under Lopez Obrador, based on comments from people proposed for his cabinet

I work in the finance industry so I am more biased toward reading these reports even if their track record is not very good.

[jaichind]

MXN rose after falling 1.2% yesterday as AMLO's campaign chief worked to calm investors anxious about some of his promises.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-14/mexico-s-obrador-will-work-to-calm-markets-campaign-chief-says

What is interesting is AMLO's campaign chief is Tatiana Clouthier who is a member of a key PAN family.  She is the daughter of the 1988 PAN candidate.  She broke with PAN years ago and is no with AMLO.  Her brother ran and won as a PAN rebel for the lower house in 2015 for Sinaloa and is now running as a PAN rebel for Sinaloa Senate.