Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

A Wells Fargo report says

1) If AMLO wins 45% of hte vote and falls short of a congressional majority, MXN will rise to 19
2) If AMLO loses then MXN will surge to 17.5
3) If AMLO wins and captures both houses then MXN will weaken to 21

[catographer]

Newbie to Mexican politics here: Why did PRI and PAN nominate such terribly unpopular candidates? AMLO is running away with this thing.

[Velasco]

I'm just checking opinion polls for the Chiapas elections and I'm getting a little dissapointed because the MORENA candidate for governor leads unopposed. I'm afraid that Rutilio Escandón is going to be less glamourous than my hero Manuel Velasco Coello.  It's the end of the PVEM reign, I suppose 😢

Kind of a weird tangential question, but does anyone know how to reduce the size of a .svg map?

Select all objects in all layers using the zoom. Go to "objects" and then go to "properties". Scale objects down. Go to "document's properties" or whatever is called in the English version and resize the document. Look for some tutorial.

https://inkscape.org/en/doc/tutorials/basic/tutorial-basic.html

[jaichind]

For the 9 governor races the status seems to be

Chiapas: Incumbent: PVEM.   MORENA will win.

Distrito Federal: Incumbent: PRD.   MORENA will win

Guanajuato: Incumbent: PAN.  PAN will win.

Jalisco: Incumbent: PRI.  MC ahead of PRI and should win.

Morelos: Incumbent: PRD.  MORENA  will win.

Puebla: Incumbent: PAN.  MORENA PAN neck to neck.  Most likely MORENA will win.

Tabasco:  Incumbent: PRD.  MORENA will win.

Veracruz: Incumbent: PAN.  MORENA and PAN neck to neck.  Most likely MORENA will win.

Yucatán: Incumbent: PRI.  PRI with a small edge over PAN and most likely will win.

At this stage only Puebla and Veracruz are in doubt.  PRI might upset MC in Jalisco but seems unlikely just like PAN could upset PRI in Yucatán but seems unlikely. 

From PAN's point of view if they lose Puebla  and Veracruz to MORENA that would be the real disaster since Anaya being defeated is an accepted reality. 

[jaichind]

I'm just checking opinion polls for the Chiapas elections and I'm getting a little dissapointed because the MORENA candidate for governor leads unopposed. I'm afraid that Rutilio Escandón is going to be less glamourous than my hero Manuel Velasco Coello.  It's the end of the PVEM reign, I suppose 😢

Note that Coello is de facto backing AMLO and MORENA in the governor race.  Coello's maternal grandfather was the PRI Chiapas governor back in the 1970s.  But his paternal grandfather Fernando Coello, who is still alive, is a very good long time friend and adviser of AMLO.  That the need for the Coello to make sure his machine continues to get federal subsidies when he moves on and AMLO takes over the Presidency obviously makes him, in de facto terms, back AMLO/MORENA. 

[Hash]

Newbie to Mexican politics here: Why did PRI and PAN nominate such terribly unpopular candidates? AMLO is running away with this thing.

Well, hindsight is 20/20. AMLO's always been the favourite, but when this started his lead wasn't as unassailable.

In any case, neither the PAN or PRI really 'nominated' their candidates in the sense Americans (and others) would understand it.

Like in the good old days, Meade was picked by EPN's dedazo last November, as if it was the 1960s. Other priista presidential hopefuls, notably Osorio Chong, were informed of the dedazo and obediently (at least in public) stepped aside. In EPN's galaxy brain, Meade was supposed to be the Mexican Macron: the independent, (competent?), reformist technocrat with no partisan ties (Meade isn't a card-carrying priista apparatchik, and served in cabinet under both Calderón and EPN) who could distance himself from the recent stench of priismo and then polarize the election between him and AMLO, the dangerous radical populist demagogue. But Meade was unable to distance himself from the PRI, EPN and the toxic unpopular technocratic faction in cabinet (Videgaray and Nuño), and still ended up being dragged down by the PRI and EPN's massive unpopularity. He began the campaign in third place, but all his moves to climb into second failed. As his name recognition increased, his negatives increased too, but his positives didn't really. Osorio Chong was polling better than Meade at the time of the dedazo, but I still think that was mostly down to higher name recognition so I'm unsure if Osorio Chong would have been a better candidate. As a priista apparatchik and traditional political operator, he would certainly have had an easier time working the PRI machines, but at the same time his image and record in SEGOB would probably have dragged him down.

Anaya, following the mantra of o te chingas o te jodes, bulldozed his way to the nomination, commandeering the party and shoving opponents and rivals to the side before imposing himself as the PAN's, and then the Frente's, sole candidate. There was no way he would have let an internal party primary go ahead, and in the end he didn't need to. Before she quit the party, Zavala was polling better than Anaya, but again I'm not sure if she would have been a better candidate, particularly seeing as her independent candidacy was a disaster and her campaign was a joke (her first and only debate performance was embarrassing). She may have gotten more active support from the PAN's governors, but that wouldn't have made much of a difference. Anaya is an intelligent and cunning young politician, who could possibly make a halfway-competent president, but it seems as if voters never really came to fully trust him or perceive him as particularly likeable. Certainly the 'dirty war' tricks (the money laundering scandal), be it true or not, hurt him and stopped his momentum.

[TheSaint250]

I saw a video on the election and am now curious as to why AMLO is calling for austerity and PAN's candidate is calling for higher taxes and UBI.

[Hash]

I saw a video on the election and am now curious as to why AMLO is calling for austerity and PAN's candidate is calling for higher taxes and UBI.

Austerity kind of means something else in a country as corrupt as Mexico, where everyone knows or suspect that governments are wasting money on corrupt schemes, white elephants or splurging on personal image promotion/ads (as is very common at every level -- I know, since I kind of was part of a corrupt personal image promotion scheme)*. In AMLO's case, this goes along with his "end corruption" pledge, which is his answer to everything.

It has indeed been said that Anaya is a centre-right candidate with a centre-left platform. There's not really anything traditionally conservative about Anaya (except perhaps social conservatism, but so is AMLO), although compared to other Latin American right-wingers nowadays (like uribismo), the PAN hasn't been particularly conservative/right-wing/far-right for years now (except, again, on social conservatism). Not quite sure if Anaya wants 'higher taxes' - the relevant section of the Frente's official platform document vaguely says it wants an "efficient, effective, progressive tax system with a large tax base [i.e. more taxpayers, incorporating informal sectors]". Expanding the tax base isn't a 'left-wing thing' here - for example, Iván Duque proposes pretty much the same thing, with a very neoliberal economic platform. In Latin American countries with large informal sectors and poor populations who don't pay income taxes (or any sort of corporate/business tax, or evade VAT), expanding the tax base is a pretty common policy idea.

* Each successive administration - federal, state or local - gets its own logo, which they then plaster everywhere to make sure people know who they can thank. In Solidaridad (Playa del Carmen), then-PRI mayor Mauricio Góngora (who ran for governor in 2016 but lost, and is now in jail for being a crook) plastered not only his administration's logo but also his own Twitter handle on the covered basketball courts he built in my neighbourhood. It's only one example I'm personally familiar with, but there are thousands of other. Or, for another, how the PVEM is spending its public money on backpacks, water bottles, notebooks and other cheap sh**t.

[jaichind]

My prediction (non-null votes,  I think vote for Zavala will be counted as null)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       45
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           26
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     26
El Bronco                              3

Some of the PRI votes comes back from AMLO to Meade to pull off a near tie with Aanaya

I think Lower House vote (non-null) will look something like

MORENA-PT-PES        42
PAN-PRD-MC             30
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       27

Where MORENA-PT-PES bloc will pull off a comfortable majority based on the split of the non-AMLO blocs in the FPTP seats plus the 150-75-75 distribution of seats within MORENA-PT-PES which means that MORENA does not get hit by the 8% rule.

[Velasco]

Average polling

Chances of winning (Kiko Llaneras/El País): AMLO 97%, Anaya 2%, Meade 1%




Chart showing states holding gubernatorial elections and some statistical data:

[Velasco]

I'm just checking opinion polls for the Chiapas elections and I'm getting a little dissapointed because the MORENA candidate for governor leads unopposed. I'm afraid that Rutilio Escandón is going to be less glamourous than my hero Manuel Velasco Coello.  It's the end of the PVEM reign, I suppose 😢

Note that Coello is de facto backing AMLO and MORENA in the governor race.  Coello's maternal grandfather was the PRI Chiapas governor back in the 1970s.  But his paternal grandfather Fernando Coello, who is still alive, is a very good long time friend and adviser of AMLO.  That the need for the Coello to make sure his machine continues to get federal subsidies when he moves on and AMLO takes over the Presidency obviously makes him, in de facto terms, back AMLO/MORENA. 

Betting for the winning horse is always the best choice

[jaichind]

Polls just opened

The schedule is



7am (8am EST) polls open
6pm (7pm EST) polls close and ballot boxes for local races to be opened.  Exit polls for local races can be announced
8pm (9pm EST) national races ballot boxes to be opened. Exit polls for national races can be announced.  PREP opens.
11pm-midnight (midnight to 1am EST) Quick-count by INE comes out on election trends.

[jaichind]

PREP which opens at 8pm (9pm EST) seems to have the following estimated schedule for votes counted and displayed on PREP

Midnight (1am EST) 12% of the votes
3am (4am EST) 55% of the votes
6am (7am EST) 67% of the votes
8am (9am EST) 82% of the votes

[jaichind]

Link to various Federal PREP distributors

https://www.ine.mx/Difusores/index.html

State PREP

Chiapas http://www.iepc-chiapas.org.mx/
Mexico City  http://www.iecm.mx/
Guanajuato  https://ieeg.mx/
Jalisco  http://www.iepcjalisco.org.mx/
Morelos  http://impepac.mx/
Puebla http://www.ieepuebla.org.mx/
Tabasco  http://iepct.mx/
Veracruz http://oplever.org.mx/
Yucatan  http://www.iepac.mx/

[Antonio the Sixth]

So no results for me until tomorrow. Great.

[jaichind]

Seems like AMLO will vote for as a write-in candidate Rosario Ibarra de Piedra.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosario_Ybarra

Who is a long time Far Left activist and a PRD Senator a decade ago.

[BL53931]

Will there be any election night coverage available in the US? I think CSPAN carried live coverage the last two elections, Spanish with subtitles for American viewers.

[jaichind]

What a Prez ballot looks like.  Zavala is still on the ballot but a vote for her I think will count as a NULL.

[Former President tack50]

Seems like AMLO will vote for as a write-in candidate Rosario Ibarra de Piedra.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosario_Ybarra

Who is a long time Far Left activist and a PRD Senator a decade ago.

Wait, can't AMLO vote for himself? Or is that for Congress?

[jaichind]

Seems like AMLO will vote for as a write-in candidate Rosario Ibarra de Piedra.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rosario_Ybarra

Who is a long time Far Left activist and a PRD Senator a decade ago.

Wait, can't AMLO vote for himself? Or is that for Congress?

He can.  But he wants to pay homage to this Leftist activist.  Also a move to lock up the Old Left vote.  Its not like he needs that one vote he will cast for Prez. 

See

https://noticieros.televisa.com/historia/quien-es-rosario-ibarra-piedra-quien-amlo-votara/

[jaichind]

Zavala voted and still will not disclose who she voted for.  There are many nails in the coffin on Anaya's defeat.  This is one of those nails. My guess is she voted for herself or Meade.

[jaichind]

What a voting booth looks like. There is a separate ballot box for each office.  Not clear what the policy/procedure is if the wrong ballot is deposited in the wrong box.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Go Meade! Obrador will be a far-left disaster for Mexico!

[Donerail]

Will there be any election night coverage available in the US? I think CSPAN carried live coverage the last two elections, Spanish with subtitles for American viewers.

Telemundo's election coverage (México: La Batalla Final) starts at 4 central

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Go Meade! Obrador will be a far-left disaster for Mexico!

Good, let's elect the totally-not-corrupt PRI candidate instead. Moving Mexico forward! Todos por México!