Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

I read earlier that  Tatiana Clouthier voted PAN for one of the races she voted in.   It was for her sister that is running for PAN in a local race.  I guess AMLO would understand.

I didn't know that. I'll check it out.

MORENA candidate Miguel Barbosa claims that exit polls give him victory in Puebla.

Previosuly a PAN apokesperson claimed that polls predict they'll win the three states in doubt.

Puebla and Veracruz have PAN and MORENA neck to neck. PAN and PRI are neck-to-neck in Yucatán.

https://politico.mx/central-electoral/elecciones-2018/presidencial/tatiana-clouthier-le-da-un-voto-al-pan/

[Velasco]

Enrique Alfaro (MC) has proclaimed victory in the state of Jalisco with a 15% margin. Alfaro states his victory was not easy to achieve, given the "overwhelming" growth of MORENA in the national scene. Governor-elect highlighted that MC ran alone in Jalisco, while in other states allied with PAN and PRD.

[jaichind]

Updated El Financiero exit polls now calls Veracruz and Puebla for MORENA.  But it still has Yucatan neck to neck at 39-39 between PRI and PAN.

[jaichind]

Exit polls ( El Financiero)

AMLO     49
Anaya     27
Meade    18
El Bronco 6

[jaichind]

El Bronco at 6 is pretty impressive and symbolic of the anti-incumbent surge.  

[Skye]

Claudia Sheinbaum (born in 1962) will be in all likelihood the first woman to govern the City of Mexico. She describes herself as a "left-wing politician" who is very close to AMLO and likes to follow the parliamentary speeches of Podemos leaders in the Spanish Congress. She advocetes for cultural diversity, defence of native peoples, environmentalism and women's rights

Her rival Alejandra Barrales (PAN-PRD-MC) claims that the race is still open, despite exit polls say otherwise

So she's awful, then.

[Ebsy]

Cry more.

[BundouYMB]

AMLO is undoubtedly one of the great political geniuses of this century for his seamless fusion of honest left-wing politicians with corrupt party-hopping apparatchiks who just want to have their hands in the government cookie jar. It's a tribute to his skills as a leader. I have very high expectations for his presidency.

[Velasco]

Exit polls (president)

Televisa: AMLO 43%-49%, Anaya 23%-27%, Meade 22%-26%, El Bronco 3%-5%

El Financiero puts AMLO ahead with nearly 1/2 of the votes. Anaya trails by 22%, while Meade shrinks to 18%

[Velasco]

Meade concedes defeat and congratulates AMLO

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is there a live results count somewhere?

[jaichind]

GEA-ISA has it at

AMLO   48.5
Anaya  27.6
Meade  20.5

[jaichind]

Is there a live results count somewhere?

See

https://df18.ine.mx/

various links to PRPE sites ... not sure which ones are up yet

[Double Carpet]

https://www.elnorte.com/

https://eleccionesinegr.gruporeforma.com/default.html?idplaza=2

https://elecciones.elnorte.com/#/presidencia/nacional/1/1/1/1

for live results - 2nd link is a results map - Anaya leading in Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas, AMLO in 8 others where counting has started

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thanks!

[Double Carpet]

haha no probs - I always find that for maximum enjoyment of election nights you need to have live results (ideally a live map!) and live streaming of the relevant national tv.

Anyway AMLO doesn't look to be heading for a clean sweep at this very early stage, there look likely to be a handful of states that stay blue for Anaya.

[jaichind]

haha no probs - I always find that for maximum enjoyment of election nights you need to have live results (ideally a live map!) and live streaming of the relevant national tv.

Anyway AMLO doesn't look to be heading for a clean sweep at this very early stage, there look likely to be a handful of states that stay blue for Anaya.

Yeah.  A bunch of Northern States it will be  Anaya ahead with AMLO and Meade fight for second place.  In the South it will be massive AMLO landslides.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

PAN declares victory in Yucatan.  Again, does not mean much other than PAN could win.

PRI also declared that they have "irreversibly won Yucatan by 5%", and that they have low chances for winning any other governor races

[Antonio the Sixth]

How likely is it that MORENA will get an absolute majority?

[Double Carpet]

I love the way that some of the Mexican polling stations seem to be either in tents or at least partly outdoors! - apart from Indonesia/Philippines don't think I've seen that anywhere else.

I'm guessing that (regardless of how his sexenio as president turns out to be!) this is a pretty historic event for the country - first ever left-wing President elected - almost on a par with Fox being first non-PRI winner in 2000?

[Double Carpet]

Yes that's my next question - haven't been looking at the results really apart from President - will AMLO have a majority in both chambers?

Thanks!

[BundouYMB]

Yes that's my next question - haven't been looking at the results really apart from President - will AMLO have a majority in both chambers?

Thanks!

This is a big question mark. With the scale of his victory I think he will. However, there is currently less than 0.1% of the vote in so it's impossible to know yet.

[Double Carpet]

Yes that's true.

And Mexico seems to count pretty slowly - I think it will take more than 12 hours to count the presidential vote for example.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Anaya also conceded

[jaichind]

Yes that's my next question - haven't been looking at the results really apart from President - will AMLO have a majority in both chambers?

Thanks!

I think that really depends on how MORENA-PT-PES does in Northern states.  MORENA will not get hit by the 8% rule since it gave away half the FPTP seats to PT and PES.  If the ALMO vote is very South heavy then it is possible that MORENA-PT-PES misses a majority.  Most likely with 48%-49% of the vote for AMLO MORENA-PT-PES should win a majority in both chambers.