Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --

Former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of Morena has 33% of voter preference, up from 29% in Nov., according to poll on website of El Financiero.

Former First Lady Margarita Zavala of the PAN follows w/27% of preference, down from prior 29%

Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong of PRI in 3rd w/preference of 20%, down from prior 26%

Mexico City Mayor Miguel Angel Mancera of PRD has 10% vs prior 9%

----------------------------

I wonder with all the stuff Trump will be up to it would only polarize the Mexico electorate and push support toward AMLO.

[jaichind]

Latest Mexico State poll



Three way tie

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   29
MORENA              28
PAN                    25
PRD                    11
PT                       4



Problem for PRI is a large bloc of voters will never vote PRI so in the end there will be anti-PRI tactical voting.

Which means if the race becomes 1-on-1 PRI loses badly to PAN and MORENA separately

[jaichind]

Coahuila poll



Neck-to-neck

PRI-PVEM-PANAL      40
PAN-PES                 36
MORENA                 13
Independent             5
PRD                        4

[jaichind]

Another Coahuila poll with PRI further ahead as MORENA surges



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      41
PAN-PES                 30
MORENA                 16
Independent             5
PRD                        4

Same poll but asking just party support

[jaichind]

In Mexico state it seems PRD-PT formed an alliance which boosted their position



Story is the same.  PRI back ahead but mostly because MORENA and PRD-PT taking anti-PRI votes

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   28
PAN                             26
MORENA                      22
PRD-PT                        17
Independent                  7

What the PRI should hope for is that there are now potentially 3 viable anti-PRI candidates and that this might be a repeat of Oaxaca in 2016 where PRI with a very low vote share won a 4 way election.

The independent candidate seems to be a PRI rebel

This poll shows the strength of the Left.  MORENA+PRD+PT = 39

[jaichind]

Financiero poll for 2018 President

PAN(Zavala)                   32  (+5)
MORENA(AMLO)             29  (-4)
PRI (Chong)                   27  (+7)
PRD(Mancera)                  8  (-2)
Ind(El Bronco)                 4   (-6)

[jaichind]

MORENA surging in Mexico state



PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   32
PAN                             26
MORENA                      26
PRD                             12
Independent                  3  (PRI rebel)
PT                                 1

Seems like PRD-PT alliance is off which lead to more Left support going to MORENA while PRI rebel loses support to the official PRI candidate.  If PAN-PRD can form an alliance they can be favored to win in a three way battle just like in Veracruz last year.

[jaichind]

SDPnoticias poll of Mexico state has MORENA in first place



MORENA                      31.2
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   24.7
PAN                             18.4
PRD                               9.4

[jaichind]

At the national level for 2018 it seems to be a 3 way tie between PRI PAN and MORENA at the generic candidate level




PRI            25
PAN           25
MORENA    25
PRD           10

Although if asked by candidate AMLO leads 26-21-19 over PAN and PRI

[jaichind]

El Universal poll for Mexico state



PAN decline with PRI and PRD gaining

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    21.0% (+1.2%)
MORENA                     17.4%  (-0.4%)
PAN                            14.1% (-5.5%)
PRD                            12.7% (+1.3%)

[jaichind]

Nayarit poll.  PRI decline continues and turning into a PAN-PRD vs MORENA battle



MORENA   25.7%
PAN-PRD  25.3%
PRI          16.8%
Ind.          5.4%  (PRI rebel)
MC            4.7%

[jaichind]

Parametria has maps of the distribution of governorship in 1989 2006 2012 and 2017

[jaichind]

Reforma poll for Mexico state



MORENA       29
PRI              28
PAN             22
PRD             14
PT                 3



1-on-1 battle shows PRI has a low ceiling

MORENA 45 PRI  33
MORENA 45 PAN 30
PAN 40 PRI 30

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky April poll for Mexico State, MORENA ahead



MORENA                     24.4
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    23.6
PAN                           14.9
PRD                           13.6
PT                               1.0

[jaichind]

Coahuila poll - tie



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      36
PAN                       36
MORENA                 16
Independent             5   (PRI rebel)
PRD                        4
PT                          2

[jaichind]

El Financiero May poll for Mexico State has PAN in free-fall to the benefit of the non-PRI candidates.



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   32 (nc)
MORENA              29  (+3)
PAN                    18  (-8)
PRD                    15 (+3)
PT                        3 (+2)

[jaichind]

Diario Portal poll of Mexico state has a 3 way tie for second



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   27
MORENA              23
PRD                    21 
PAN                    20   

[jaichind]

All these elections are FPTP, aren't they ?

Yes.  FPTP

[jaichind]

More Mexico state polls for early May

El Universal


PRI-PVEM-PANAL   19.1
MORENA                17.5
PRD                       10.7
PAN                       10.4

Seems to fit other polls with PRI vs MORENA battle for first and PRD vs PAN in a battle for third.


Some media poll from Al Momento has MORENA heading for a historic victory


MORENA                35.1
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   28.5
PAN                       15.8
PRD                       12.4
PT                           3.1
Independent            2.9  (PRI rebel)

[jaichind]

Carlos Campos, of the company MassiveCaller, has been doing tacking polls.  It has

Mexico State very close between PRI and MORENA, Coahuila with PRI with a fighting chance if they can get votes back from the PRI rebel and Nayarit totally gone for PRI


Mexico State
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   28.4
MORENA                24.5
PAN                       20.5
PRD                         8.5





Coahuila
PAN-PES                33.1
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   28.4
MORENA                  8.1
PRI rebel                 6.6


Nayarit
PAN-PRD-PT          39.9
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   22.4
MORENA                 8.5
PRI rebel                 7.4

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN and PRD will form an alliance in 2018 Presidential race.  It does not seem to cover Mexico State in 2017 where both PAN and PRD are being pushed to the second tier by PRI and MORENA. 

Somehow I do not think this will play out well for PRD as the likely result is the Left vote will drift more from PRD to MORENA.  PAN seems to suggest by this alliance that it cannot take down AMLO by itself.  On the other hand PAN-PRD alliance did work out well in many 2016 state governor races.

[jaichind]

Parámetro has PRD surging in Mexico state



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   27.7
PRD                       23.7
MORENA                23.2
PAN                       17.4

[jaichind]

Coahuila poll by El Financiero has PRI ahead



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   38
PAN-PES                32
MORENA                19
PRI rebel                  7

[jaichind]

El Financiero Late May poll in Mexico State has PAN in free fall and PRD surging



PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34 (+2)
MORENA              29  (-)
PRD                    19 (+4)
PAN                    13  (-5)

It seems the PAN-PRD alliance has backfired on PAN in Mexico State to the benefit of PRD.  It seems that this is also working to the advantage of PRI.  MORENA has been pressuring PRD to drop out in Mexico State on the premise that PRD is way behind and that a tactical vote for MORENA is a vote to oust PRI and install a Left alternative.  With PRD surging this argument goes away and helps keep PRI ahead.

[jaichind]

If Mexico’s Ruling Party Can’t Win Here, It’s Probably Doomed

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-05-26/if-mexico-s-ruling-party-can-t-win-here-it-s-probably-doomed

Article points out that if MORENA wins Mexico State then AMLO will be the most likely winner of 2018 Prez election.  On the other hand it quotes a political analyst who predicts that PRI will win by 3%-4% due to the split of the anti-PRI vote between MORENA PRD and PAN.