Mexican Elections 2017-18

[Velasco]

Wow, the Mexico State election is gonna be extremely interesting.

_{On a side note, it's funny to notice that someone whose father is called Del Mazo and his mother Maza is running for governorship in the former EPN fiefdom.}

[Velasco]

I'm just checking opinion polls for the Chiapas elections and I'm getting a little dissapointed because the MORENA candidate for governor leads unopposed. I'm afraid that Rutilio Escandón is going to be less glamourous than my hero Manuel Velasco Coello.  It's the end of the PVEM reign, I suppose 😢

Kind of a weird tangential question, but does anyone know how to reduce the size of a .svg map?

Select all objects in all layers using the zoom. Go to "objects" and then go to "properties". Scale objects down. Go to "document's properties" or whatever is called in the English version and resize the document. Look for some tutorial.

https://inkscape.org/en/doc/tutorials/basic/tutorial-basic.html

[Velasco]

Average polling

Chances of winning (Kiko Llaneras/El País): AMLO 97%, Anaya 2%, Meade 1%




Chart showing states holding gubernatorial elections and some statistical data:

[Velasco]

I'm just checking opinion polls for the Chiapas elections and I'm getting a little dissapointed because the MORENA candidate for governor leads unopposed. I'm afraid that Rutilio Escandón is going to be less glamourous than my hero Manuel Velasco Coello.  It's the end of the PVEM reign, I suppose 😢

Note that Coello is de facto backing AMLO and MORENA in the governor race.  Coello's maternal grandfather was the PRI Chiapas governor back in the 1970s.  But his paternal grandfather Fernando Coello, who is still alive, is a very good long time friend and adviser of AMLO.  That the need for the Coello to make sure his machine continues to get federal subsidies when he moves on and AMLO takes over the Presidency obviously makes him, in de facto terms, back AMLO/MORENA. 

Betting for the winning horse is always the best choice

[Velasco]

Go Meade! Obrador will be a far-left disaster for Mexico!

I didn't know Obrador was an anarchist.

Actually he is the Antichrist



It happens that most people thinks that the state of Mexican affairs cannot continue and change is indispensable. With all his contradictions and the doubts he casts, AMLO represents change and a much desired catharsis. I'd say there are inconsistencies in his recipes against corruption and violence, two issues that reach catastrophic proportions in Mexico. However, the PRI and the PAN administrations have failed miserably and people will give him a chance. All hail AMLO, the next president of Mexico

[Velasco]

Projected winners in Mexico City and the gubernatorial races El Financiero

Ciudad de México: Claudia Sheinbaum (MORENA)

Guanajuato: David Sinhué (PAN)

Jalisco: Enrique Alfaro (MC)

Chiapas: Rutilio Escandón (MORENA)

Morelos: Cuahtémoc Blanco (MORENA)

Tabasco: Adán Augusto López (MORENA)

Puebla: PAN and MORENA are tied

Veracruz: MORENA and Veracrúz al Frente tie

Yucatán: PAN-MC and PRI-PVEM tie

PRI loses all races in case Yucatán falls to the PAN led alliance

Exit polls for presidential election in 1 1/2 hour

[Velasco]

I think they have Puebla as neck-to-neck and not for MORENA (at least the El Financiero one that is)

Yes. Fixed.

[Velasco]

AMLO advisers Alfonso Romo and Tatiana Clouthier are very confident. "The rice is burning" says Clouthier.

Probably the gubernatorial races in Veracruz, Puebla and Yucatán will be more exciting

[Velasco]

AMLO advisers Alfonso Romo and Tatiana Clouthier are very confident. "The rice is burning" says Clouthier.

Probably the gubernatorial races in Veracruz, Puebla and Yucatán will be more exciting

I read earlier that  Tatiana Clouthier voted PAN for one of the races she voted in.   It was for her sister that is running for PAN in a local race.  I guess AMLO would understand.

I didn't know that. I'll check it out.

MORENA candidate Miguel Barbosa claims that exit polls give him victory in Puebla.

Previosuly a PAN apokesperson claimed that polls predict they'll win the three states in doubt.

Puebla and Veracruz have PAN and MORENA neck to neck. PAN and PRI are neck-to-neck in Yucatán.

[Velasco]

Claudia Sheinbaum (born in 1962) will be in all likelihood the first woman to govern the City of Mexico. She describes herself as a "left-wing politician" who is very close to AMLO and likes to follow the parliamentary speeches of Podemos leaders in the Spanish Congress. She advocetes for cultural diversity, defence of native peoples, environmentalism and women's rights

Her rival Alejandra Barrales (PAN-PRD-MC) claims that the race is still open, despite exit polls say otherwise

[Velasco]

Enrique Alfaro (MC) has proclaimed victory in the state of Jalisco with a 15% margin. Alfaro states his victory was not easy to achieve, given the "overwhelming" growth of MORENA in the national scene. Governor-elect highlighted that MC ran alone in Jalisco, while in other states allied with PAN and PRD.

[Velasco]

Exit polls (president)

Televisa: AMLO 43%-49%, Anaya 23%-27%, Meade 22%-26%, El Bronco 3%-5%

El Financiero puts AMLO ahead with nearly 1/2 of the votes. Anaya trails by 22%, while Meade shrinks to 18%

[Velasco]

Meade concedes defeat and congratulates AMLO

[Velasco]

Anaya concedes defeat and wishes AMLO a succesful presidency for the good of Mexico

Ugh, f**k, I really won't be able to see any solid results before I sleep, will I?

Good night y'all.

I'm afraid you won't. I'm going to sleep too.

[Velasco]

The MORENA landslide in congressional elections overwhelmed the traditional parties (PRI and PAN) and also prevented independent candidates won seats. Pedro Kumamoto and Manuel Clouthier aimed to be the first independents to be elected senators, representing Jalisco and Sinaloa states respectively. Both were unsuccessful.

Kumamoto is part of Wikipolitica, a platform that pushes citizens without a party to run in elections. They are young people coming out to make grassroots politics, advocate direct democracy and reject the party system. The height of this movement was in 2015, when Kumamoto won a seat in Jalisco State Congress with minimal funding. In order to run in this year's senatorial election, he had to collect at least 115k signatures. Finally Kumamoto failed to win a seat, although he got 598k votes throughout the state. PREP results for Senate in Jalisco were:

PAN-PRD-MC 32.99%  MORENA-PT-PES 24.01%  Kumamoto 21.83% PRI 12.17%  PVEM 3.45%  PANAL 1.86% Unregistered candidates 0.16% Null 3.53%

https://noticieros.televisa.com/elecciones-2018/elecciones-federales/resultados-federales/

Wikipolitica ran three unsuccessful candidates for the House in Jalisco state.

Independent Manuel Clouthier was less successful in Sinaloa. "I lacked the ability to persuade voters in the context of Morena tsunami", twitted the candidate. Sinaloa senate results:

MORENA-PT-PES 46.98%  PRI-PVEM-PANAL 24.08%  PAN-PRD-MC 18.95%  Clouthier 7.05% Unregistered 0.14% Null 2.8%

While these independent candidates for Congress promote grassroots politics and pedagogy, independent candidates for President El Bronco and Zavala are traditional politicians running outside party lines.