IA-Emerson: Trump +5
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  IA-Emerson: Trump +5
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Author Topic: IA-Emerson: Trump +5  (Read 2376 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: September 02, 2016, 11:36:22 AM »
« edited: September 02, 2016, 12:00:52 PM by TN volunteer »

44% Trump (R)
39% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
1% Stein (G)

Link.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2016, 11:36:45 AM »

lmao

Thanks Emerson for confirming what we all knew.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2016, 11:37:59 AM »

We know Emerson is junky, wont stop Seriously and the Swede from celebrating.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2016, 11:40:11 AM »

If Emerson College polls indicate how America will vote in November, maybe I do not want to take my blood pressure pills.

They are out of line with national tracking polls. It;s not that some states do better for the Republican in a few states and worse in others; it is that the polls are consistently off. There could be problems of sampling.

I expect more polls of Iowa within the next couple of weeks.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2016, 11:43:08 AM »

If Emerson College polls indicate how America will vote in November, maybe I do not want to take my blood pressure pills.

They are out of line with national tracking polls. It;s not that some states do better for the Republican in a few states and worse in others; it is that the polls are consistently off. There could be problems of sampling.

I expect more polls of Iowa within the next couple of weeks.
Huh

Even when Hillar was +8-10, Iowa was relatively close.
Now we've got Fox News and IBD/Tipp showing a close rase. It is consistent, indeed. With some adjustment for their R 1-3% house effect.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: September 02, 2016, 11:48:21 AM »

If Emerson College polls indicate how America will vote in November, maybe I do not want to take my blood pressure pills.

They are out of line with national tracking polls. It;s not that some states do better for the Republican in a few states and worse in others; it is that the polls are consistently off. There could be problems of sampling.

I expect more polls of Iowa within the next couple of weeks.
Huh

Even when Hillar was +8-10, Iowa was relatively close.
Now we've got Fox News and IBD/Tipp showing a close rase. It is consistent, indeed. With some adjustment for their R 1-3% house effect.

Emerson is probably showing less of a bias in a state like Iowa where the demographics are older and whiter, but I don't think we should be surprised by Trump up 2 in Iowa... it's well within the range of expected results.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #6 on: September 02, 2016, 11:49:47 AM »

Yeah, I think we can safely assume by now that Emerson is this year's Mason-Dixon/Zogby.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #7 on: September 02, 2016, 11:56:58 AM »

I will say this... in the grand scheme of things, I'm okay seeing North Carolina and Virginia to the left of Iowa. I will take that trade.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: September 02, 2016, 12:10:15 PM »

I will say this... in the grand scheme of things, I'm okay seeing North Carolina and Virginia to the left of Iowa. I will take that trade.
According to 538 Iowa and NC are very close to each other Smiley
Iowa D+0.4
NC    D+0.9
VA    D+6.2
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Matty
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« Reply #9 on: September 02, 2016, 12:30:53 PM »

Wait....Iowa for a while now has been known to be the state most likely to flip to trump, and when a poll shows him winnnig, it's junk?

The way this forum reacts to ANY poll that is good for trump is ridiculous.

Can someone please tell me why this poll shouldn't be at least a sign that trump could win iowa?
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Skye
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« Reply #10 on: September 02, 2016, 12:36:33 PM »

Not saying you should trust this specifical poll, but you shouldn't be surprised if Trump leads in Iowa.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #11 on: September 02, 2016, 12:36:40 PM »

Emerson definitely seems to have a pro Trump bias in results but it still seems like Trump has some kind of lead in the state of Iowa at this point with the race tightening.
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Xing
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« Reply #12 on: September 02, 2016, 12:37:12 PM »

People have generally said that Iowa looks like one of Hillary's weakest Obama states, and that it is in play. Emerson has consistently found more Trump friendly results than other pollsters, so I wouldn't read too much into this, other than concluding that Iowa is competitive.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: September 02, 2016, 02:02:05 PM »

I doubt it, its PA senate poll and this poll are questionable
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2016, 02:27:03 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2016, 02:29:04 PM by john cage bubblegum »

Emerson's methodology is garbage, but it is kinda funny how if you add ~4 points to Clinton's margin in every Emerson poll, it's very reasonable.
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LLR
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« Reply #15 on: September 02, 2016, 03:37:26 PM »

Iowa continues to be weird.
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #16 on: September 02, 2016, 03:44:17 PM »

Whelp, looks like Atlas posters calling this poll junk so far has not stopped RCP, 538, and everyone else in existence from using them in their averages. I can't believe the nerve of these polling aggregates for ignoring the will of the Atlas posters!
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LLR
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« Reply #17 on: September 02, 2016, 03:51:52 PM »

Whelp, looks like Atlas posters calling this poll junk so far has not stopped RCP, 538, and everyone else in existence from using them in their averages. I can't believe the nerve of these polling aggregates for ignoring the will of the Atlas posters!

Junk polls should still be included in averages. Luckily though, 538 uses weights in their averages and adjusts for pollster biases, so this poll can be dealt with.
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Wells
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« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2016, 03:52:28 PM »

I'll miss Iowa going red. Can't wait for NC, GA, and AZ, though.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2016, 03:52:52 PM »

why are white people so crazy?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2016, 03:58:09 PM »

Even if we operate on the assumption that this poll is accurate, even the polls own findings appear to indicate that Hillary is having a harder time consolidating the Democratic base than Trump with the Republican base.

Point being, it looks like Clinton has more room to grow in Iowa than Trump at this time...
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Matty
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« Reply #21 on: September 02, 2016, 04:02:14 PM »

Even if we operate on the assumption that this poll is accurate, even the polls own findings appear to indicate that Hillary is having a harder time consolidating the Democratic base than Trump with the Republican base.

Point being, it looks like Clinton has more room to grow in Iowa than Trump at this time...

Iowa is one of the few states where the gop "establishment" has been supportive of donald since the primary.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: September 02, 2016, 04:05:46 PM »

Because Blacks are criminals, Mexicans are rapist and Muslims are terrorists, racist!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #23 on: September 02, 2016, 04:06:33 PM »

Even if we operate on the assumption that this poll is accurate, even the polls own findings appear to indicate that Hillary is having a harder time consolidating the Democratic base than Trump with the Republican base.

Point being, it looks like Clinton has more room to grow in Iowa than Trump at this time...
How did you come to this conclusion? Huh
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Wells
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« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2016, 04:06:56 PM »

Because Blacks are criminals, Mexicans are rapist and Muslims are terrorists, racist!

...
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