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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  CBS/YouGov: Clinton +8 in PA, Clinton +4 in NC
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton +8 in PA, Clinton +4 in NC  (Read 2468 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #25 on: September 04, 2016, 10:19:06 am »

They didn't poll PA before, but they polled NC back in JUN. 21-24.

So
Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump  42% (+0)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #26 on: September 04, 2016, 10:32:10 am »

I'm interested in PPP's Florida poll next week. If she's up 4 in NC, she has to be up 5-7 points in FL.

I thought that was supposed to be this weekend?
I think it's conducted this weekend

They usually conduct their public polls (the ones they do on their own rather than for a client) on the weekend and release the results on the following Tuesday or Wednesday.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #27 on: September 04, 2016, 10:35:11 am »

Trump absolutely has to win North Carolina to even have a shot. The electoral map still looks very tricky for him.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #28 on: September 04, 2016, 10:37:55 am »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 10:42:55 am by Assemblyman Gass3268 »

Trump absolutely has to win North Carolina to even have a shot. The electoral map still looks very tricky for him.

Thankfully the voter suppression laws were smacked down in North Carolina.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #29 on: September 04, 2016, 10:45:06 am »

Pollsters need to stop including Stein in polls where she isn't on the ballot.
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LLR
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« Reply #30 on: September 04, 2016, 10:49:54 am »

+4 in a state Obama won by under 1 in 2008 and lost in 2012

+8 in the likely tipping point state

Keep dreaming, Trump supporters
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #31 on: September 04, 2016, 10:53:00 am »

Beautiful polls.
Hillary is beating Trump like a pimp does to his ho when he catches her trying to hide money from him.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #32 on: September 04, 2016, 10:54:59 am »

It seems like the map is definitely expanding for both parties. In a narrow Trump win, he wins in Ohio, Iowa, and maybe Michigan but barely puts away NC and loses Virginia and Colorado. Not certain about Nevada. If he wins by a good deal, the latter states are easily his 300+th votes. The inverse is true as well. You can see that was already happening when Obama couldn't win Missouri and Ohio was repeatedly half his margin.
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dspNY
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« Reply #33 on: September 04, 2016, 11:44:40 am »

I should give everyone a caveat on the NC poll: Stein is not on the ballot in NC...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #34 on: September 04, 2016, 12:20:52 pm »

god bless the great people of Pennsylvania and North Carolina!
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #35 on: September 04, 2016, 01:44:38 pm »

Nice !
I especially like the PA numbers.

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michelle
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« Reply #36 on: September 04, 2016, 01:46:08 pm »

Emerson polls are looking pretty junky right now.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #37 on: September 04, 2016, 01:46:58 pm »

The tracker has Clinton winning Hispanics by only 55-30. It's junk.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #38 on: September 04, 2016, 01:52:13 pm »

Adding Johnson and Stein ...... 46-42-4-2 Clinton in NC

I should give everyone a caveat on the NC poll: Stein is not on the ballot in NC...

Which means we could realistically add at least +1 to Clinton in this poll, bringing her number to a +5 in NC.
Yeah !
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Ebsy
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« Reply #39 on: September 04, 2016, 02:06:41 pm »

Surveys of multiple states are meaningless.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #40 on: September 04, 2016, 02:07:45 pm »

Finally a good poll for Clinton after a bunch of sh**tty ones over the last week.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #41 on: September 04, 2016, 02:09:14 pm »

Adding Johnson and Stein ...... 46-42-4-2 Clinton in NC

I should give everyone a caveat on the NC poll: Stein is not on the ballot in NC...

Which means we could realistically add at least +1 to Clinton in this poll, bringing her number to a +5 in NC.
Yeah !

Stein is an official write-in for NC though. (write-ins aren't automatically counted there)
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #42 on: September 04, 2016, 02:31:12 pm »

Emerson polls are looking pretty junky right now.

Some of these polls that made it close were showing the record high uneducated male and record low educated turn out. I think most of them were rigged so they would show a horse race.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2016, 02:38:06 pm »

Surveys of multiple states are meaningless.

Any survey is meaningless if it has a distorted sample -- like reaching only people with landlines.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #44 on: September 04, 2016, 02:51:45 pm »

I'd note that their battleground sample is Republican leaning. Take them out and Clinton is up 201-164 in the electoral college. Obama won those states by about 2%. So Clinton +2 here would be roughly consistent with a national lead of Clinton +4. That's a bit low but not really outside the MoE.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #45 on: September 04, 2016, 02:53:46 pm »

North Carolina and Pennsylvania are different enough that Donald Trump cannot lose both and win the election. The last President who had a chance to do that was Gerald Ford (1976!) had a few things changed in Florida, Ohio, or Texas in a very close election with generally close races.  
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #46 on: September 04, 2016, 03:04:18 pm »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 03:11:25 pm by LittleBigOctopus »

Surveys of multiple states are meaningless.

Any survey is meaningless if it has a distorted sample -- like reaching only people with landlines.
Or like reaching only people that use internet, huh.

According to 538 both pollster have B rating.
Yougov is D+1.6.
Emerson is R+1.3

I admit, that Yougov is very likely better than Emerson, but still.

Methodologies:

Emerson only landslide. 40% have cellphones only, so it is indeed a very stupid methodology, but those groups that have higher turnout: older or/and high-income voters, probably are OK. Younger though must be highly underestimated.

Yougov internet only. 15% don't use internet, but who are they? According to Pew are those older mostly white people often with low income, often with low education, often rural. Pretty much Trumpish, no?

So yeah, Yougov is better. But it also has some problem. That's why I average. 538, Upshot, Betting, you chose. But don't cherry pick... Evil
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Vosem
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« Reply #47 on: September 04, 2016, 03:05:38 pm »

North Carolina and Pennsylvania are different enough that Donald Trump cannot lose both and win the election. The last President who had a chance to do that was Gerald Ford (1976!) had a few things changed in Florida, Ohio, or Texas in a very close election with generally close races.  

While I agree with your basic conclusion, I will say that Reagan 1980 also had a very good shot at winning without NC or PA, which were both Democratic-leaning states at the time, since for much of the campaign he had a very narrow lead, insufficient to carry either state but sufficient to win the election as a whole. A universal swing of 7.5% (giving Reagan a nationwide popular vote lead of a little more than 2%, roughly consistent with polls before the single debate held that year) gives this map:



This is a Reagan win, 281-257. Since then, of course, Pennsylvania has consistently been leans-D and North Carolina been leans-R, so any candidate winning both states has been on track for at least a comfortable overall win.
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omegascarlet
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« Reply #48 on: September 04, 2016, 03:32:22 pm »

Beautiful polls.
Hillary is beating Trump like a pimp does to his ho when he catches her trying to hide money from him.

Wait. You're saying trump is an innocent women being beaten by a monster? I thought you liked Clinton.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #49 on: September 04, 2016, 03:35:38 pm »

Beautiful polls.
Hillary is beating Trump like a pimp does to his ho when he catches her trying to hide money from him.

Horrible horrible analogie.
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