CBS/YouGov: Clinton +8 in PA, Clinton +4 in NC

[dspNY]

Clinton 45, Trump 37 in PA
Clinton 46, Trump 42 in NC

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

Adding Johnson and Stein in for both states, it is 45-37-6-2 Clinton in PA and 46-42-4-2 Clinton in NC

[Gass3268]

Gorgeous, but muh Trump surge!

[dspNY]

Gorgeous

Senate #s

PA: Tied (39-39)
NC: Ross +1 (41-40)

[Gass3268]

Gorgeous

Senate #s

PA: Tied (39-39)
NC: Ross +1 (41-40)

30% of African Americans are undecided in the PA Senate race. RIP Toomey!

[dspNY]

30% of African Americans are undecided in the PA Senate race. RIP Toomey!

lol

That being said, how is Clinton up 2 in the "Battleground tracker" but leading by 4 in NC?

The battleground tracker covering 11 states is far less reliable than specific state polls with over 1000 respondents

[Seriously?]

30% of African Americans are undecided in the PA Senate race. RIP Toomey!

lol

That being said, how is Clinton up 2 in the "Battleground tracker" but leading by 4 in NC?

The battleground tracker covering 11 states is far less reliable than specific state polls with over 1000 respondents

Not on aggregate it shouldn't be. There would theoretically have to be a few states outside of Georgia and Arizona that Trump is winning, if he's losing one of the biggest states (PA) by 8.

[Fusionmunster]

Makes sense if Clinton is up 2 nationally...wait, no it doesn't.

[/]

[Person Man]

With still like 15% undecided, do you think a lot of people just won't vote?

[dspNY]

The demographics in this poll match 2012

PA: 79% white, 13% African-American
NC: 70% white, 22% African-American

[heatcharger]

They polled 3675 likely voters in AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. My guess is that Trump is ahead in AZ, GA, IA, FL and probably tied in OH and NV.

Nope, nope, and nope. How would that make any sense? YouGov had Florida at Clinton +5 three weeks ago and Clinton +6 in Ohio two weeks ago.  Also, Clinton being +4 in NC and +8 in PA makes it even less plausible. The race has not tightened by that much for your guesses to be true.

Even you said:

The multiple swing state samples are a stupid idea.

Let's not put much stock into this. Obviously the state polls are what's important.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Damn it!

[PresidentSamTilden]

Best news for the Clinton Camp all week. Much better than I expected

[Dr. Arch]

Thank goodness. She's running away with it in NC. Local politics there are likely making NC an easier pickup for Democrats this cycle.

[Seriously?]

They polled 3675 likely voters in AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. My guess is that Trump is ahead in AZ, GA, IA, FL and probably tied in OH and NV.

Nope, nope, and nope. How would that make any sense? YouGov had Florida at Clinton +5 three weeks ago and Clinton +6 in Ohio two weeks ago.  Also, Clinton being +4 in NC and +8 in PA makes it even less plausible. The race has not tightened by that much for your guesses to be true.

Even you said:

The multiple swing state samples are a stupid idea.

Let's not put much stock into this. Obviously the state polls are what's important.

1) The race has tightened over the past 2 and 3 weeks.
2) I absolutely will put stock in an aggregate that tells me one thing, where the state polls tell me something else, especially when the state polls in the largest states trend Clinton by overstated margins from the aggregate. Either the aggregate or the state polls are right.

[dspNY]

They polled 3675 likely voters in AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. My guess is that Trump is ahead in AZ, GA, IA, FL and probably tied in OH and NV.

Nope, nope, and nope. How would that make any sense? YouGov had Florida at Clinton +5 three weeks ago and Clinton +6 in Ohio two weeks ago.  Also, Clinton being +4 in NC and +8 in PA makes it even less plausible. The race has not tightened by that much for your guesses to be true.

Even you said:

The multiple swing state samples are a stupid idea.

Let's not put much stock into this. Obviously the state polls are what's important.

1) The race has tightened over the past 2 and 3 weeks.
2) I absolutely will put stock in an aggregate that tells me one thing, where the state polls tell me something else, especially when the state polls in the largest states trend Clinton by overstated margins from the aggregate. Either the aggregate or the state polls are right.

Much more likely that the state polls are right since they polled over 1000 people in each state while the aggregate only polled around 300 from each state

[PresidentSamTilden]

I'm interested in PPP's Florida poll next week. If she's up 4 in NC, she has to be up 5-7 points in FL.

I thought that was supposed to be this weekend?

[PresidentSamTilden]

I think the battleground tracker is probably junk. Not even just saying that as a clinton hack. Check this out:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So the tracker has stayed the same since the DNC? If the race has tightened (and I think it has, somewhat), shouldn't that have changed?

[anthonyjg]

I'm interested in PPP's Florida poll next week. If she's up 4 in NC, she has to be up 5-7 points in FL.

I thought that was supposed to be this weekend?

I think it's conducted this weekend

[DrScholl]

This race will not be close.

[JerryArkansas]

I think the battleground tracker is probably junk. Not even just saying that as a clinton hack. Check this out:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So the tracker has stayed the same since the DNC? If the race has tightened (and I think it has, somewhat), shouldn't that have changed?

The fact that the margin stayed the same even after adding two states that are most of the time republican also is telling.

[Xing]

Freedom poll! Trump does seem to have a NC problem, and it might actually be more Democratic than OH/IA this year. Also, PA still looks out of reach for Trump.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

They didn't poll PA before, but they polled NC back in JUN. 21-24.

So
Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump  42% (+0)

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm interested in PPP's Florida poll next week. If she's up 4 in NC, she has to be up 5-7 points in FL.

I thought that was supposed to be this weekend?

I think it's conducted this weekend

They usually conduct their public polls (the ones they do on their own rather than for a client) on the weekend and release the results on the following Tuesday or Wednesday.

[Eraserhead]

Trump absolutely has to win North Carolina to even have a shot. The electoral map still looks very tricky for him.