They polled 3675 likely voters in AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. My guess is that Trump is ahead in AZ, GA, IA, FL and probably tied in OH and NV.
Nope, nope, and nope. How would that make any sense? YouGov had Florida at Clinton +5 three weeks ago and Clinton +6 in Ohio two weeks ago. Also, Clinton being +4 in NC and +8 in PA makes it even less plausible. The race has not tightened by
that much for your guesses to be true.
Even you said:
The multiple swing state samples are a stupid idea.
Let's not put much stock into this. Obviously the state polls are what's important.
