CBS/YouGov: Clinton +8 in PA, Clinton +4 in NC

[dspNY]

Clinton 45, Trump 37 in PA
Clinton 46, Trump 42 in NC

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

Adding Johnson and Stein in for both states, it is 45-37-6-2 Clinton in PA and 46-42-4-2 Clinton in NC

[dspNY]

Gorgeous

Senate #s

PA: Tied (39-39)
NC: Ross +1 (41-40)

[dspNY]

30% of African Americans are undecided in the PA Senate race. RIP Toomey!

lol

That being said, how is Clinton up 2 in the "Battleground tracker" but leading by 4 in NC?

The battleground tracker covering 11 states is far less reliable than specific state polls with over 1000 respondents

[dspNY]

The demographics in this poll match 2012

PA: 79% white, 13% African-American
NC: 70% white, 22% African-American

[dspNY]

They polled 3675 likely voters in AZ, CO, FL, GA, IA, MI, NC, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI. My guess is that Trump is ahead in AZ, GA, IA, FL and probably tied in OH and NV.

Nope, nope, and nope. How would that make any sense? YouGov had Florida at Clinton +5 three weeks ago and Clinton +6 in Ohio two weeks ago.  Also, Clinton being +4 in NC and +8 in PA makes it even less plausible. The race has not tightened by that much for your guesses to be true.

Even you said:

The multiple swing state samples are a stupid idea.

Let's not put much stock into this. Obviously the state polls are what's important.

1) The race has tightened over the past 2 and 3 weeks.
2) I absolutely will put stock in an aggregate that tells me one thing, where the state polls tell me something else, especially when the state polls in the largest states trend Clinton by overstated margins from the aggregate. Either the aggregate or the state polls are right.

Much more likely that the state polls are right since they polled over 1000 people in each state while the aggregate only polled around 300 from each state

[dspNY]

I should give everyone a caveat on the NC poll: Stein is not on the ballot in NC...