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pbrower2a
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« Reply #25 on: August 17, 2016, 11:15:25 am »

Missouri, PPP for a pro-union group. I can't use it.

Trump 45
Clinton 42

http://www.protectmofamilies.com/images/15290/Aug2016MissouriPresidentResultsPPP_PMF.pdf
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: August 17, 2016, 10:25:51 pm »
« Edited: August 18, 2016, 07:58:38 pm by pbrower2a »

Indiana, Monmouth:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

Trump - 47%
Clinton - 36%
Johnson - 10%

Conducted August 13-16. 403 LV.

Stein isn't on the ballot here so that's why she's not listed I assume.

...could be a bit high for Trump. Republicans winning the Presidency are usually up 15% or more in Indiana.

Three by Quinnipiac:

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

These polls of likely voters were conducted from August 9-16.

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

Suffolk University -- Nevada

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/poll-presidential-senate-races-in-nevada-are-dead-heats

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 42%

I must treat it as a tie because Clinton is up 2% but with less than 45% of the vote. I do this with Nevada so that if I see a poll with Clinton up 44-42 in North Dakota I will not have to claim that such is a lead for her. Hillary Clinton will almost certainly win Nevada, but she is not close to winning it yet in my book.

Georgia, WAGA-TV,  FoX 5 , Atlanta:

The toplines:

Clinton   43%(+2)
Trump   43%(-1)
Johnson   11% (+1)
Undecided   3%

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OS-GA-General-8.18.16.pdf

I have to treat this as a tie because it is a tie.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.










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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: August 19, 2016, 11:06:49 pm »

My weekend projection:



(my cautious guess on New Mexico, based on its demographics)

Strong Clinton (60% saturation)  267
Weak Clinton  (40% saturation)    49
Barely Clinton  (20% saturation)    39
Effective tie   (white)                     16
Barely Trump (20% saturation)     19
Weak Trump  (40% saturation)     44   
Strong Trump (70% saturation)     42

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

270 wins. That's before I bring up North Carolina, Ohio, or Florida.

I just did. I also brought up some other states. I have some pre-Convention polls (actually during) in Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Oklahoma because those results are likely to stick.

The states in gray have no recent poll, and in view of the recent behavior of polls in Utah and the two unusually-close ones for the Presidency in Kansas and Texas (those are my 44 "weak Trump states" I have doubts about lots of states. If Kansas is up only 5 for Trump, then guess how silly it would be to assume that North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska are "safe for Trump".  But the states in gray don't really matter except for a Senate seat.  States in which Hillary Clinton is up by double the usual margin of error put her very close to 270... and I am very cautious in putting New Mexico in the "Safe Clinton" category. New Mexico just does not get polled often.

Up 8 or more -- Clinton is at 267.
Up 4 or more -- Clinton is at 316.
Up at all -- Clinton is at 355.

Beyond that? Georgia would deliver her a win on the scale of Bill Clinton in the 1990s and just slightly bigger than Obama in 2008. 

Trump losing Kansas or Texas indicates a thorough collapse of his campaign.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2016, 03:13:36 pm »
« Edited: August 24, 2016, 08:40:05 am by pbrower2a »

Img


Iowa a tie (it has been a statistical tie most of the year); Ohio is out of the margin of error this time, and to the wrong way for Donald Trump.

A Juneau newspaper published a poll of Alaska hither-to-unpublished from June showing Trump up only by 9 --  so I cannot use it. Alaska could be considerably closer than that.

Missouri. Monmouth University. Not by a special-interest group, I can use it.  

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_082316/

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 43%
Johnson - 8%

Still a tie by my reckoning because nobody is above 45%. and the margin is narrow. If Johnson can get 8% of the vote, then someone wins Missouri with 46% of the vote.  

Utah, PPP:

Trump: 39%
Clinton: 24%
Johnson: 12%
McMullin: 9%
Castle: 2%
Stein: 1%

Trump: 53%
Clinton: 33%

Really awful for a Republican nominee in Utah. Trump does utterly destroy Clinton in a binary race. Note that Clinton, Johnson, and McMullin combine for a bigger vote share than Trump. The pale shade for Donald Trump in a four-way race says all that one needs know about his pathetic, erratic campaign. Utah vot3ers are conservative -- but they are not stupid, and they are not crazy.


PPP, New Mexico (work in progress):

1,100 registered voters, Aug 19-21:

Clinton 40% (+9)
Trump 31%
Johnson 16%
Stein 4%

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/89809/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-nm-johnson-strong/

No binary matchup is offered, so I am not showing one. Take out Johnson and Stein, and Hillary Clinton gets half the total votes anyway. Gary Johnson will find New Mexico one of his strongest states as a true Favorite Son.  

South Carolina, Feldman Group (D):

Trump - 39%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - Unknown
Stein - Unknown

Trump - 45%
Clinton - 43%

*This poll was commissioned by the SC Democratic Party, and included 600 likely voters between August 18-21.

Partisan pollster, but a good one.

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/new-poll-shows-clinton-trump-tied-in-red-sc-749547075645?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

It appears as a tie -- 45% with a 2% margin in the binary race, and an absolute tie in a three-way race. The Trump campaign is in deep trouble if it can't already crack 45% in South Carolina.




Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.











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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: August 25, 2016, 03:21:12 am »
« Edited: August 25, 2016, 11:41:09 am by pbrower2a »

From CNN's house pollster:

Arizona:
Trump 43
Clinton 38
Johnson 12
Stein 4

North Carolina:
Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 11

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/24/politics/arizona-north-carolina-polls-trump-clinton/index.html


North Carolina, Monmouth:

Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NC_082416/1% or 2% lead -- your choice.

Florida, for the Florida Chamber of Commerce.

Donald Trump/Mike Pence 44%
Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 41%
Gary Johnson/Bill Weld 9%
Someone Else 2%
Undecided 4%

Donald Trump 44%
Hillary Clinton 43%
Someone Else 7%
Undecided 5%

http://www.flchamber.com/politicians-parties-and-plaintiff-trial-lawyers-are-unknown-or-unliked-in-new-florida-chamber-of-commerce-statewide-poll/

If I exclude polls by unions I exclude those for industry groups and chambers of commerce. For a state polled as often as Florida I don't need any trash polls.

I must accept this one for Michigan.  It suggests that the natiowide race is tightening. It does not include a binary matchup between Trump and Clinton in Michigan. But the margin has gone from double-digit to high-single digits.

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/768839154163646465

Clinton: 44%
Trump: 37%
Johnson: 5%
Stein: 3%





Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.












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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: August 27, 2016, 12:07:33 pm »
« Edited: August 28, 2016, 08:24:04 am by pbrower2a »

My weekend projection (early morning, 8/27/2016)



New Mexico has been polled for the first time in a long time, and the state is effectively out of range for Donald Trump. I consider at least 272 electoral votes out of range a meaningful contest at this stage in a Presidential race.

8% is not close.

My criterion for "strong" is 8%, twice the margin of error.
My criterion for "weak" is 4%, basically the margin of error.

8% is effectively out of range for peeling off a state from the Other Side with normal campaigning  even at its most intense.  Donald Trump now  needs miracles to have a chance now.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: August 30, 2016, 05:33:04 pm »

Monmouth University, Pennsylvania:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_083016/

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 40%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

There  are some polls by anentity called Emerson College, but they are screwey enough to be suspect.





Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.













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pbrower2a
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« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2016, 08:08:04 pm »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 01:57:53 pm by pbrower2a »

We may be seeing a Trump charge now. What I first thought were anomalous polls may not be so anomalous.
Monmouth University, Pennsylvania:

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_083016/

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 40%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

There  are some polls by an entity called Emerson College, but they are screwy enough to be suspect.

WISCONSIN:

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/31/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-edge-over-trump-narrowing-to-pre-convention-levels-among-wisconsin-voters/

RV:
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%


Clinton - 37%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 7%

LV:
Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%


Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Your choice on which you go with. Marquette recently had Clinton up by double digits

Some polls from Emerson College:

New York

Img


North Carolina

Img


Michigan

Img


Pennsylvania:

Img


Ohio:
Img



Arizona, Breitbart/Gravis:

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 40%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 1%

Poll was of 1,244 likely Arizona voters conducted on August 27th.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/31/exclusive-breitbartgravis-arizona-presidential-poll-trump-44-clinton-40-with-johnson-8-stein-1/

Also from Arizona:

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-73630F4BD52B12D8

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 1%

Conducted August 25-27. 728 LV. Rated C+ on 538.

Useless because it is a tie.



West Virginia:

I doubt that anyone can dispute this even if it is by an obscure pollster .

Trump 49%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Undecided 6%

386 LV; August 8-29; MOE +/- 4.7%

Source: http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-trump-still-the-choice-of-mountain-state-voters/



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  




Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.

It may have.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #33 on: September 01, 2016, 01:52:38 pm »

A large number of polls from a group dedicated to raising the minimum wage. Even if they are compiled by PPP, a very good pollster, I can't use them.

Arizona (Trump +3): Trump 46, Clinton 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AZResults1.pdf

Missouri (Trump +6): Trump 47, Clinton 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MOResults1.pdf

New Hampshire (Clinton +6): Clinton 46, Trump 40

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NHResults1.pdf

North Carolina (Clinton +1): Clinton 45, Trump 44

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCResults1.pdf

Ohio (Clinton +4): Clinton 46, Trump 42

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OhioResults1.pdf

Pennsylvania (Clinton +5): Clinton 48, Trump 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PAResults1.pdf

Wisconsin (Clinton +7): Clinton 48, Trump 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WIResults1.pdf

Should these be valid, then Donald Trump has no chance.

You are welcome to try to convince me to use these.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: September 01, 2016, 07:44:32 pm »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 07:31:33 am by pbrower2a »

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed



Hardly consistent with a Trump charge.

Virginia, Emerson College polling:

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.


Extremely consistent with a Trump surge. But note an error -- "Green", and not "Stein" is mentioned. That might tempt me to call a foul.  Not using this.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  




Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #35 on: September 03, 2016, 04:47:27 am »

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed



Hardly consistent with a Trump charge.

Virginia, Emerson College polling:

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
11% Johnson (L)
3% Green (G)

Link.


Extremely consistent with a Trump surge. But note an error -- "Green", and not "Stein" is mentioned. That might tempt me to call a foul.  Not using this.

Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  




Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D15/8,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Isn't it Trump with +18 lead in West Virginia?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #36 on: September 03, 2016, 07:00:09 am »

Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

Democrats really messed up when they dominated politics in West Virginia. They failed to invest in the basics like schools and highways. Republicans get their chance in a state that had one resource (coal) for which to depend upon for the few above-average incomes that there were and upon coal miners for votes. Now Republicans get their chance.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #37 on: September 03, 2016, 11:18:42 am »

I am giving no weekend projection. We got a huge supply of polls by some entity relatively new to making projections of this election, and these all calibrate badly with what we have seen elsewhere. These, mostly by Emerson College, include polls for New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Iowa... and they are English-only polls for land telephone lines only.

Millions have abandoned land phone lines, people stuck with them to a great extent elderly people who have trouble with the cell phone. English-only? Spanish speakers are more  likely to recognize polls by an English-language pollster as junk calls and not answer them. 

These are far out of line with the reality shown by WMUR-TV in New Hampshire, which shows Hillary Clinton still up by low double digits, and a poll in Kansas that shows Donald Trump up by 7%... and out of line with most national tracking polls.   In any event, PPP is polling Florida this weekend and it ordinarily does a very good job.

PPP did several polls on behalf of an entity that seeks to raise the minimum wage. This is a special-interest group, and I cannot use its polls even if I believe the methodology valid. 
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jimrtex
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« Reply #38 on: September 03, 2016, 09:24:14 pm »

Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

So if Clinton were replaced with Joe Manchin, West Virginia would look like Kentucky rather than Pennsylvania?

What does the 7 in "18/7" indicate?  18 is the difference between 49 and 31, but what about 7.
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« Reply #39 on: September 03, 2016, 10:18:15 pm »

Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

So if Clinton were replaced with Joe Manchin, West Virginia would look like Kentucky rather than Pennsylvania?

What does the 7 in "18/7" indicate?  18 is the difference between 49 and 31, but what about 7.

I'm going to hazard a guess that the 7 represents undecideds.

Also, I think that WV is the wrong color Shocked shouldn't it be blue-40? or am I reading this wrong?
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« Reply #40 on: September 04, 2016, 02:16:11 am »

I think we need a new "post Labor Day polling" thread, which includes only polls done after Labor Day.

There are still many post-convention polls in there right now, which are outdated.
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« Reply #41 on: September 04, 2016, 07:29:35 am »

Yeah, pbrow, don't think WV should be red on that map...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #42 on: September 04, 2016, 07:32:25 am »

Yes -- it is an eighteen-point lead. 49-31. But that is still less than 50%, and the rules of the map so show such. Hillary Clinton is absolutely not going to win West Virginia.   

Donald Trump will probably end up winning West Virginia about 60-40 in a binary election even in a landslide by Hillary Clinton resembling one of Eisenhower in the 1950s... West Virginia is now about as solid R in Presidential elections as any state can be, and it isn't simply a rejection of Barack Obama anymore.

So if Clinton were replaced with Joe Manchin, West Virginia would look like Kentucky rather than Pennsylvania?

What does the 7 in "18/7" indicate?  18 is the difference between 49 and 31, but what about 7.

Who knows? Ask the person who wrote the script?

Support for Gary Johnson.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #43 on: September 04, 2016, 07:52:57 am »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 08:13:58 am by pbrower2a »

Quote
There  are some polls by an entity called Emerson College, but they are screwy enough to be suspect.


I have called a foul for bad methodology, particularly for relying entirely upon landlines (skews elderly and thus pro-Trump).

I've never had a problem with Marquette University Law School or Monmouth University polling, so polling for Wisconsin stands as their average:


https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/31/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-edge-over-trump-narrowing-to-pre-convention-levels-among-wisconsin-voters/

RV:
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%


Clinton - 37%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 7%

LV:
Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%


Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Your choice on which you go with. Marquette recently had Clinton up by double digits

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

Link.

WMUR-TV. ABC-9, southern New Hampshire:

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)


(nothing changes here)

Clinton beats Trump 54-28 among NH females, she trails by 10 among men (35-45). NH will be the state with the most female Romney/Clinton voters.

Metro News, West Virginia:

Trump 49%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Undecided 6%

386 LV; August 8-29; MOE +/- 4.7%

Source: http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-trump-still-the-choice-of-mountain-state-voters/

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed

A new one for Alaska:

39% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
10% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

No binary poll, so I can't show that.

Clinton favorability: 27/65 (-38)
Trump favorability: 38/51 (-13)

http://midnightsunak.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Memo-AK-Senator-Murkowski-Aug2016.pdf




Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D11/12,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

The nature of this election cycle must change dramatically for Donald Trump to have any chance of victory.













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pbrower2a
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« Reply #44 on: September 04, 2016, 08:05:23 am »

Yeah, pbrow, don't think WV should be red on that map...

Corrected.
I think we need a new "post Labor Day polling" thread, which includes only polls done after Labor Day.

There are still many post-convention polls in there right now, which are outdated.

Maybe next week. I intend to keep the polls for Alaska and West Virginia because those two states get polled rarely.

Oh, by the way -- Senator Lisa Murkowski is very safe.
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« Reply #45 on: September 04, 2016, 08:59:59 am »
« Edited: September 04, 2016, 02:41:09 pm by pbrower2a »

Quote
There  are some polls by an entity called Emerson College, but they are screwy enough to be suspect.


I have called a foul for bad methodology, particularly for relying entirely upon landlines (skews elderly and thus pro-Trump).

I've never had a problem with Marquette University Law School or Monmouth University polling, so polling for Wisconsin stands as their average:


https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/31/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-clinton-edge-over-trump-narrowing-to-pre-convention-levels-among-wisconsin-voters/

RV:
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 37%


Clinton - 37%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 7%

LV:
Clinton - 45%
Trump - 42%


Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Your choice on which you go with. Marquette recently had Clinton up by double digits

Kansas, Remington Research.

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

Link.

WMUR-TV. ABC-9, southern New Hampshire:

43% Clinton (D)
32% Trump (R)
12% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)


(nothing changes here)

Clinton beats Trump 54-28 among NH females, she trails by 10 among men (35-45). NH will be the state with the most female Romney/Clinton voters.

Metro News, West Virginia:

Trump 49%
Clinton 31%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%
Undecided 6%

386 LV; August 8-29; MOE +/- 4.7%

Source: http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/01/metronews-west-virginia-poll-trump-still-the-choice-of-mountain-state-voters/

http://m.cjonline.com/news/state/2016-09-01/sam-brownback-viewed-unfavorably-70-percent-confidential-gop-poll-blamed

A new one for Alaska:

39% Trump (R)
29% Clinton (D)
10% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

No binary poll, so I can't show that.

Clinton favorability: 27/65 (-38)
Trump favorability: 38/51 (-13)

http://midnightsunak.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Memo-AK-Senator-Murkowski-Aug2016.pdf




Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D11/12,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)















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« Reply #46 on: September 04, 2016, 02:46:00 pm »

YouGov/CBS -- Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Clinton 45, Trump 37 in PA
Clinton 46, Trump 42 in NC

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/04/cbs-battleground-states-pennsylvania-north-carolin/

Adding Johnson and Stein in for both states, it is 45-37-6-2 Clinton in PA and 46-42-4-2 Clinton in NC

...I expect more from this source. YouGov was excellent in 2012, a fairly good analogue for this Presidential election.



Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R)  



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:)  

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20%  





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear








Small states and districts in area or with shapes that allow confusion:

FL D4/4;4
ME D 10/10; 4
NH D11/12,4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
















[/quote]
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« Reply #47 on: September 04, 2016, 03:07:25 pm »

Some polls by PPP for a pro-labor group:

Arizona (Trump +3): Trump 46, Clinton 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/AZResults1.pdf

Missouri (Trump +6): Trump 47, Clinton 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/MOResults1.pdf

New Hampshire (Clinton +6): Clinton 46, Trump 40

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NHResults1.pdf

North Carolina (Clinton +1): Clinton 45, Trump 44

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/NCResults1.pdf

Ohio (Clinton +4): Clinton 46, Trump 42

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OhioResults1.pdf

Pennsylvania (Clinton +5): Clinton 48, Trump 43

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/PAResults1.pdf

Wisconsin (Clinton +7): Clinton 48, Trump 41

http://nelpaction.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/WIResults1.pdf
[/quote]

YouGov is actually more charitable to Trump in its polls.

Yet a survey across 13 battleground states suggests the race may still be up for grabs. Among likely voters Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by only two points, 42% to 40%. 7% go for Gary Johnson and again 2% for Jill Stein. The states included in the poll are Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Following the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by 43% to 41% among a smaller list of 11 states (not including Arizona and Georgia).

I'd rather see Michigan dropped as a 'battleground' state so that a possible 15% lead doesn't distort the whole thing. But what state would I add as a battleground? Certainly not Minnesota or Oregon (for which I would like to see a poll). Missouri... yes! Maybe South Carolina.

Of those states, Michigan and Pennsylvania never went to George W. Bush.

This list includes Arizona and Georgia this time... and if I am a Republican I have to be looking defeat in the face.   
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #48 on: September 06, 2016, 07:48:09 am »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states -- everything but the District of Columbia and the separate Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska.

This is a good place to start for the closing two months of the Presidential campaign.

So here's what I do with all the controversies from before Labor Day:

Blank map.



Good old File 13!

I hereby close and lock this thread.
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