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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)
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Author Topic: NBC/SurveyMonkey National Poll: Clinton +6 (two-way) +4 (four-way)  (Read 1411 times)
amdcpus
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« on: September 06, 2016, 05:18:16 am »

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-holds-steady-against-trump-campaign-enters-final-weeks-poll-n642931

Clinton 48%
Trump 42%


Clinton 41%
Trump 37%
Johnson 12%
Stein 4%
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IndyRep
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 05:31:08 am »

That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 05:35:39 am »

That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.

Yup, the electorate isn't going to be R+4. Even in 2004 the electorate was even, in the other elections since 1992 more Democrats voted
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 05:43:12 am »

That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.

Yup, the electorate isn't going to be R+4. Even in 2004 the electorate was even, in the other elections since 1992 more Democrats voted
When was the last GE that had a Republican electorate?
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Bernie 2020
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 05:46:30 am »

Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 05:48:31 am »

The race has stabilized. Clinton slipped a little because the Democrats' enthusiasm subsided due to summer doldrums, and because Trump largely avoided big controversies like the ones with judge Curiel and the Khans.
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Bernie 2020
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2016, 05:48:50 am »

and that's as close as it has ever been 1976 and on, I couldn't find anything pre-1976.....
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 05:59:18 am »

Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.

The mistake the GOP has made is thinking 2004 was some kind of default.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 07:03:49 am »

That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.
Please, stop it. It is normal.

When the race was about Clinton +9, we got polls Clinton +12-14 and polls showing her up 5-7.

Now, when the race is about +3, we'll get polls showing tie/Trump +1-3, but also polls showing Clinton +5-7.

It is normal.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2016, 07:10:18 am »

Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.

The mistake the GOP has made is thinking 2004 was some kind of default.
I'd believe that.

and that's as close as it has ever been 1976 and on, I couldn't find anything pre-1976.....

I am guessing you would have to go back to the Roaring 20s to find a composition like that.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2016, 07:17:58 am »

Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

Never saw this coming...

Wait, my theory was that Dems liked only polls showing Clinton winning. Consistent!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2016, 07:19:06 am »

Party ID was tied in 2004 (37-37) according to exit polls from 2004.

The mistake the Dems has made is thinking 2008-2012 was some kind of default.
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michelle
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2016, 07:30:25 am »

Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

Wait, my theory was that Dems liked only polls showing Clinton winning. Consistent!

You think? Of course people like polls that show their candidate winning. Are we supposed to look at a Trump +2 poll and feel happy?

And like you're any better, especially when you defend good polls for Trump which are obviously junk. Everybody does it.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2016, 07:48:32 am »

Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

NBC has nothing to do with this particular poll.

Wait, my theory was that Dems liked only polls showing Clinton winning. Consistent!

You think? Of course people like polls that show their candidate winning. Are we supposed to look at a Trump +2 poll and feel happy?

And like you're any better, especially when you defend good polls for Trump which are obviously junk. Everybody does it.
I defend their trend, that was pretty much consistent. That's why I'm not surprised by new A polls now. And I am consistent. QU was bad when showed "Trump friendly" results, but once it showed "Clinton friendly", it became goog accoridng to some Dems. The same about PPP. Or ABC favorables (regards to Polnut).

I have always said, that LA Times have a bias of 3-6%.
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michelle
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2016, 08:04:25 am »

Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

NBC has nothing to do with this particular poll.

What? This poll is NBC/SurveyMonkey.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2016, 08:09:15 am »

Dems is defending C- online weekly poll with Clinton +1.0 house effect.

SurveyMonkey is C-, NBC is A-, and a Clinton +1 house effect means that the real results are Clinton +5 and 3 which isn't too bad.

NBC has nothing to do with this particular poll.

What? This poll is NBC/SurveyMonkey.
Who did this poll? Survey Monkey. NBC published.
NBC A- rating has nothing to do with it.

NBC News/Wall Street Journal has A-.

By the way, this poll is among RV, what can explain a little bit of difference.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2016, 11:20:38 am »

Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.
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afleitch
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2016, 11:23:37 am »

Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2016, 11:29:16 am »

Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?
It depends on what your POV is on the LV screen. Obviously, that's evolving right now. But you'd think Survey Monkey would start employing their own model at some point.
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afleitch
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2016, 11:35:06 am »

Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?
It depends on what your POV is on the LV screen. Obviously, that's evolving right now. But you'd think Survey Monkey would start employing their own model at some point.

So why roll it out? There's no point in rushing out a model until you are confident in it. Gallup stopped polling because they f-cked up their own LV model despite polling tens of thousands of voters.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2016, 11:50:49 am »

Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey. Survey Monkey...

Still RV after Labor Day. That needs to be taken into account.

So what's the correct way to model LV?
It depends on what your POV is on the LV screen. Obviously, that's evolving right now. But you'd think Survey Monkey would start employing their own model at some point.

So why roll it out? There's no point in rushing out a model until you are confident in it. Gallup stopped polling because they f-cked up their own LV model despite polling tens of thousands of voters.

It's post-Labor Day. It's time for these assumptions to be made.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2016, 12:49:14 pm »

this looks more realistic to me.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2016, 01:32:34 pm »

That looks pretty accurate. Certainly more believable than the CNN numbers.
Please, stop it. It is normal.

When the race was about Clinton +9, we got polls Clinton +12-14 and polls showing her up 5-7.

Now, when the race is about +3, we'll get polls showing tie/Trump +1-3, but also polls showing Clinton +5-7.

It is normal.

Nate Silver:

Quote
Clinton’s ahead, by a margin of about 3 percentage points in an average of national polls, or 4 points in our popular vote composite, which is based on both national polls and state polls. While the race has tightened, be wary of claims that the election is too close to call — that isn’t where the preponderance of the evidence lies, at least for the moment. If one candidate is ahead by 3 or 4 percentage points, there will be occasional polls showing a tied race or her opponent narrowly ahead, along with others showing the candidate with a mid- to high single-digit lead. We’ve seen multiple examples of both of those recently.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-clintons-lead-keeps-shrinking/
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