Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:32:37 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6
Author Topic: Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll  (Read 5589 times)
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 06, 2016, 07:03:22 AM »


Probably more to do with Labor day weekend then anything else.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 06, 2016, 07:14:15 AM »

As I always say: never believe single polls, look at the whole picture. CNN poll is though likely to be little bit (2-4 at least) off, but We also have Fox Clinton +2, and IBT/TIPP showing tie. All A pollsters.

But ABC online polls was much much worse. Sample size!!!
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Are those number even believable? Common, there are more racists outthere than those numbers.

The latest IBD/TIPP
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://morningconsult.com/2016/09/04/trumps-immigration-stance-isnt-hurting/

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 06, 2016, 07:15:16 AM »


They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.

Meh...that's usually the line, but that's also because it is usually conservatives who fail to understand that Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in terms of party ID in every presidential election since at least the 1950s* (and likely much longer than that).

*2004 was a tie
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2016, 07:20:12 AM »


They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.

Meh...that's usually the line, but that's also because it is usually conservatives who fail to understand that Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in terms of party ID in every presidential election since at least the 1950s* (and likely much longer than that).

*2004 was a tie
So should we unskew this poll? Smiley
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2016, 07:23:14 AM »


They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.

Meh...that's usually the line, but that's also because it is usually conservatives who fail to understand that Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in terms of party ID in every presidential election since at least the 1950s* (and likely much longer than that).

*2004 was a tie
So should we unskew this poll? Smiley

No, we should throw it in the fycking garbage where it belongs. No credible poll is going to find a national electorate that is R+4, self-identified or otherwise.
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 06, 2016, 07:25:43 AM »

^^^ For that matter, a 40% independent electorate among likely voters is pretty ridiculous, too.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2016, 07:25:55 AM »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Intresting indeed! Smiley
Even though inside MOE.
Logged
Panda Express
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,578


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2016, 07:29:21 AM »

Hillary needs to drop out and Big Joe Biden needs to be parachuted in pronto.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2016, 07:33:18 AM »

No, we should throw it in the fycking garbage where it belongs. No credible poll is going to find a national electorate that is R+4, self-identified or otherwise.
28-30 Aug, Fox news Clinton +2
Among RV
D 41%, R41%, I 16%, DK 3%
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,090
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: September 06, 2016, 07:40:57 AM »

No, we should throw it in the fycking garbage where it belongs. No credible poll is going to find a national electorate that is R+4, self-identified or otherwise.
28-30 Aug, Fox news Clinton +2
Among RV
D 41%, R41%, I 16%, DK 3%


I'm not sure what your point is there...? That seems like a pretty silly poll as well if those numbers are party ID numbers: registered voters are even more "independent" than likely voters. Presumably the chronic references to "40% of the country being independent" are referring to registered voters as a whole; likely voters have tended to be closer to 30%. To have them at 16% significantly over-represents Democrats and Republicans even when measuring registered voters. However, at least this poll's top-line numbers are in line with aggregate polling overall.

Having an election where party ID is tied is obviously possible (see 2004), albeit not very likely in this particular election. Having an election where the electorate is R+4 after two elections where registration has been D+6/7 in such a polarized political climate is not.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2016, 08:00:29 AM »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 08:03:40 AM by LittleBigOctopus »

Those numbers include leaners, I guess.

In this election we might see huge wave of mostly white "silent majority". If this is a case, it should sharply increase self-identifies R.

Trump's dream scenario - "non-college-educated" Whites (57% 2012) has about the same turnout that "educated" (77% 2012).

In Sweden, if I remember right, it is 88% vs 94% Smiley
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2016, 08:13:12 AM »

white college grad:
Clinton 49%
Trump 35%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

white non-college grad:
Trump 66%
Clinton 23%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

Northeast
Clinton 51%
Trump 40%
Johnson 3%
Stein 3%

Midwest
Trump 52%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

West
Clinton 46%
Trump 40%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

fav/unfav % among RVs:
Pence 43/26% for +17%
Kaine 35/24% for +11%
Johnson 23/21% for +2%
Stein 15/22% for -7%
Trump 42/56% for -14%
Clinton 41/57% for -16%
Logged
Fusionmunster
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,483


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: September 06, 2016, 08:21:04 AM »

I do hope they release a poll after this one soon. They seemed alot more active in 2012.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2016, 08:22:53 AM »

Midwest
Trump 52%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Interesting....

That isn't the word I'd use.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2016, 08:26:04 AM »

Midwest
Trump 52%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Interesting....

That isn't the word I'd use.
Panic?
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2016, 08:35:34 AM »

Good lord, those education gap numbers are incredible (perhaps literally).  Using the ANES 2012 survey as a baseline, and pretending the electorates were static, this would be a 28-point Clinton swing among college-educated whites and an 18-point Trump swing among non-college-educated whites.

Again pretending that the electorate is static, that would mean Clinton is losing a net of 36% of non-college white Obama voters, and Trump 37% of college-educated Romney voters.
Logged
Chief Justice Keef
etr906
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2016, 08:36:28 AM »

It's sad that this election might be decided based on how much stupid stuff Trump says within a week. Just shows how weak of a candidate Hillary is
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2016, 08:40:09 AM »

It's sad that this election might be decided based on how much stupid stuff Trump says within a week.
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2016, 08:42:31 AM »


Hardly, dear.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: September 06, 2016, 08:48:00 AM »


They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.

Meh...that's usually the line, but that's also because it is usually conservatives who fail to understand that Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in terms of party ID in every presidential election since at least the 1950s* (and likely much longer than that).

*2004 was a tie
So should we unskew this poll? Smiley
Of course, Trump is ahead. Smiley
Logged
uti2
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,495


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2016, 08:48:27 AM »

HRC is the worst candidate in modern history? Who in her circle is giving her such bad advice? and the worst part I can't tell if she is concerned at all if people perceive as honest or trustworthy.

She is still favored because of Trump. I have little doubt that this race would be close to over had they nominated an electable candidate, though.

That's BS, Kasich would've been the only one ahead of her easily. The others it would've been Hillary ahead by reverse Bush v. Gore margins due to changes in the electoral map. You shouldn't assume that all Trump voters would necessarily go to another Republican 1, and 2, Trump entering the race, change the whole dynamic. I.E, Bernie staying in past Feb/March due to contesting convention talk on the R side, whereas he normally would've dropped out before that. Hillary also courting neocons like Kagan and reaching out to Republicans at the expense of irritating the progressive base, also happened only due to Trump, in a normal race, it would've been an issue-focused, 'obamacare supporter' vs. 'koch puppet' race, and remember Gore won the PV.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2016, 08:51:15 AM »


They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.

Meh...that's usually the line, but that's also because it is usually conservatives who fail to understand that Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in terms of party ID in every presidential election since at least the 1950s* (and likely much longer than that).

*2004 was a tie
So should we unskew this poll? Smiley
Of course, Trump is ahead. Smiley
Unskew this not the 24 day WaPo poll
Logged
Classic Conservative
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,628


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: September 06, 2016, 08:55:31 AM »

All I can say is great news if true and that Johnson and Stein are screwed.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: September 06, 2016, 08:57:46 AM »

Lol

But fair is fair. It was C- online pollster Survey Monkey, not WaPo.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: September 06, 2016, 09:00:17 AM »

Lol

But fair is fair. It was C- online pollster Survey Monkey, not WaPo.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The C- rating is from a whopping 11 polls, so you know it's accurate.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 14 queries.