Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Sort of surprised they decided to poll over the holiday weekend. I feel like that could alter some of the results they get, with so many people not at home.

Probably why the id is so off. Going back to 2012, CNN/ORC polled during labor day weekend and found the race tied then polled a week later and it was +6 Obama. CNN knows what it was doing polling during a holiday.

Very interesting...

LOL

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Speech + Mexico trip

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Speech + Mexico trip

Explain this?

As I always say: never believe single polls, look at the whole picture. CNN poll is though likely to be little bit (2-4 at least) off, but We also have Fox Clinton +2, and IBT/TIPP showing tie. All A pollsters.

But ABC online polls was much much worse. Sample size!!!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Are those number even believable? Common, there are more racists outthere than those numbers.

The latest IBD/TIPP

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://morningconsult.com/2016/09/04/trumps-immigration-stance-isnt-hurting/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

WTF?

They messed their sample up, only 28% are Democrats compared to 32% Republican and 40% Independent

No, that's the party ID numbers, which you really shouldn't try to unskew.

Meh...that's usually the line, but that's also because it is usually conservatives who fail to understand that Democrats have outnumbered Republicans in terms of party ID in every presidential election since at least the 1950s* (and likely much longer than that).

*2004 was a tie

So should we unskew this poll?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Intresting indeed!
Even though inside MOE.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

No, we should throw it in the fycking garbage where it belongs. No credible poll is going to find a national electorate that is R+4, self-identified or otherwise.

28-30 Aug, Fox news Clinton +2
Among RV
D 41%, R41%, I 16%, DK 3%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Those numbers include leaners, I guess.

In this election we might see huge wave of mostly white "silent majority". If this is a case, it should sharply increase self-identifies R.

Trump's dream scenario - "non-college-educated" Whites (57% 2012) has about the same turnout that "educated" (77% 2012).

In Sweden, if I remember right, it is 88% vs 94%

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Midwest
Trump 52%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Interesting....

That isn't the word I'd use.

Panic?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's sad that this election might be decided based on how much stupid stuff Trump says within a week.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Unskew this not the 24 day WaPo poll

Lol

But fair is fair. It was C- online pollster Survey Monkey, not WaPo.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

What a surprise. Who'd have thought taking August off to wine and dine your big donors could have a negative effect on poll numbers.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

CNN wants to keep the horse race going, which explains this poll.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The incredibly biased media does it again!

F**k the media! They are disgusting!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

It's 44-41-9-3 to Clinton on RV rather than LV. Modelling who's actually going to vote (see Reuters) is causing much of the divergence in national polls.

Nate Silver about this issue.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Let's hope

[Erich Maria Remarque]

What a surprise. Who'd have thought taking August off to wine and dine your big donors could have a negative effect on poll numbers.

Or maybe it has something to do with the neverending trickle of FBI-related stuff combined with Trump not putting his foot in his mouth as bigly as he usually does, which usually takes the attention away from Clinton. She has still been advertising, and her not being on the trail as much isn't going to represent such a drop.

No offence, but it is sad, if it is enough to revert the race from Clinton +10 to tie...
Actually, I'd panic if it was enough and I was you...

She've outperformed him 15 to 1 in ads so far...
Just saying

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Not sure what America you are polling to end up with a R+4 sample.

They polled over a holiday weekend.

Is it R-friendly period?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Have you missed other A national polls?
AUG. 9-16   Pew Research Center                 Clinton+4 (-5)
AUG. 18-24 QU                                         Clinton+7 (+5)
AUG. 25-28 Monmouth University               Clinton+7 (-6)
AUG. 28-30   Fox News                          Clinton+2 (-7)
AUG. 26-SEP. 1   IBD/TIPP                          Tie            (-4)
SEP. 1-4   CNN/Opinion Research Corp.      Trump+2   (-10)

Average:                                                   Clinton+3  (-4.33)

Clearly change of race in QU is an outlier. Even CNN might be an outlier.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

i mean, Trump is winning whites without a college education by 44 points. If he keeps up that margin and pumps up turnout a win is not inconceivable.

I was saying it in month

It is a real possibility.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

i mean, Trump is winning whites without a college education by 44 points. If he keeps up that margin and pumps up turnout a win is not inconceivable.

That's going to be hard considering he has such a weak ground game, and less education is correlated pretty strongly with weaker turnout.

Brexit says not so fast.

And LV polls should actually count that it. There are a different methods, but simple question "Are you going to vote?" is usually included and is pretty much correlated to actual vote. Of course, one should also take to account voting history and voter pattern etc.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This poll also shows Trump favorables that I actually don't believe - (45/54). This is shocking because every other poll shows his numbers around -25.

Those numbers are among LV. You can't compare it to RV or, even worse, to All Adults (Gallup).

Trump's favorability ratings among RV:
CNN               42/56  (-14)
FOX               42/56 (-14)
IBD/TIPP        40/59 (-19)   
Monmouth      26/57 (-31)

As you see, Monmouth is clearly an outlier (just 26 had favourable view on Trump), but neither Dems nor Reps were complaining about it or trying to unskew it. Am I Right?

But this time we've got a Trump friendly poll. WE NEED TO UNSKEW THIS!
What a coincidence, huh

[Erich Maria Remarque]

LOL

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Four pages talking about this poll, which I guess means than it worked exactly the way CNN wanted.

Are you implying something?

Latest nationall poll from Reuters/Ipsos hade 4 pages as well

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Ugh, no. Unskewing is a very specific process based on the GOP obsession that 2004 was a default and 2008/12 were flukes. I'll wager a decent whack of money that the 2016 electorate is closer to 2012 than 2000/2004.

So what you're doing right now is not unskewing, Mr. Unskever himslelf?

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Can you not unskew polls? It's bad enough when Trump supporters do it, but when Clinton supporters do it on national television it's even worse. We get that this poll is an outlier and probably junk, but you don't need to fix it to what it "should" be.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Even if the electorate looks exactly like 2012, a four point lead two months out is not at all secure and Clinton should be very worried.

Because there are so many times when a candidate ahead by 4 points by Labour Day lost the election, amirite?

There is a difference, when you lead +4 and there is 5% undeciders/other
and
when you lead by +4 and there is 15-20 undeciders/other. amirite?