Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

HRC is the worst candidate in modern history? Who in her circle is giving her such bad advice? and the worst part I can't tell if she is concerned at all if people perceive as honest or trustworthy.

Your pearl-clutching is not warranted.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Midwest
Trump 52%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Interesting....

That isn't the word I'd use.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Midwest
Trump 52%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 10%
Stein 1%

South
Trump 45%
Clinton 43%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

Interesting....

That isn't the word I'd use.

Panic?

Hardly, dear.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

This poll also shows Trump favorables that I actually don't believe - (45/54). This is shocking because every other poll shows his numbers around -25.

It's definitely got a R friendly sample. Seems like a pretty clear outlier, but we shall see.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

LOL

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN

That isn't unskewing, that is actually forecasting based on how the actual electorate will look. Gallup got into trouble last cycle because they had a bad forecast of the electorate.

Because we know for a fact that the 2016 electorate will look exactly like the 2012 electorate, right?

This is exactly what the unskewers have done in the past - weigh the poll to the results they want instead of the results the poll gets.

Ugh, no. Unskewing is a very specific process based on the GOP obsession that 2004 was a default and 2008/12 were flukes. I'll wager a decent whack of money that the 2016 electorate is closer to 2012 than 2000/2004.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Even if the top line is an outlier, there's no excuse for the R nominee having a 15 point advantage on who you trust more on the economy for chrissakes. Particularly, given that the past two R presidents have been utter disasters for the economy, while the past two D's have pulled the economy out from recession into (in one case, the best times this country saw in a generation; in the other case, the best that could have been expected given the massive structural obstructions he faced).

The GOP candidate has a default advantage on economic matters, regardless of reality, because people are morons. Add in the pretty R-friendly sample of this poll, it's not surprising he's over-performing.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My only point is, the last D president who was bad for the economy was Jimmy Carter, and he actually had a stellar job creation record. If the party had a shred of competence, they would own this issue.

I don't think you can blame the Dems for this, it's that the GOP is so much better and far more shameless in their marketing. It's just that the left will likely NEVER be regarded as the better economic stewards, when the default view of what that means, lines up with GOP rhetoric.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."

Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.

Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.

Actually, it's genuine psephology versus a baseless GOP fever-dream/hope. Could the electorate change? Sure it could, is there any justifiable reason why we should expect a collapse in minority and college educated white turnout? No.