Chuck Todd noted, “Whites without a college degree appear to make up nearly half of their sample. In 2012, by the way, whites without a college degree was slightly more than a third of all voters."
Is this 2012-style unskewing? Is it a valid critique of the LV model? It's up to you.
Personally, I find it inconceivable that whites with no college degree is going to reverse its long-term decline as a share of the electorate and jump up from one-third to one-half of the electorate.
It's more like from 36% (in 2012) to 39% (in CNN LV poll).
I'm sorry if this was documented further up the thread—can you point out to me where Chuck Todd's math was debunked? Thanks.
Note that the trend for % of non-college-educated whites is that it continually decreases as a share of the population as both education levels and diversity rises. Trump would need to get a relative surge in this population's votes just to hold steady at 2012 levels, much less reverse.
