One thing I've noticed coming back here from 4 years ago is that there seems to be some undue overconfidence in polling.
Just because we've had 3 presidential cycles in a row where both the projected winner and the margin were fairly close, we think that old polling dragon is slayed forever.
But then we have outcomes like UK'15 and Brexit'16.
And we tell ourselves, "well those Brits don't have the same robust methodology we have over here." But is that true?
This already is looking like the most volatile year since 1980. And volatile years tend to trip up the pollsters. What makes us so sure we can't have a 1980-sized polling miss?
2014 was also a major polling failure, which makes this especially hilarious. Republicans overperformed the polls in many Midwestern states.
