Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll (user search)
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  Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll (search mode)
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Author Topic: Trump +2 in CNN/ORC National Poll  (Read 5744 times)
cinyc
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Posts: 12,719


« on: September 06, 2016, 05:19:35 PM »

LOL Grin

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN


That isn't unskewing, that is actually forecasting based on how the actual electorate will look. Gallup got into trouble last cycle because they had a bad forecast of the electorate.

Because we know for a fact that the 2016 electorate will look exactly like the 2012 electorate, right?

This is exactly what the unskewers have done in the past - weigh the poll to the results they want instead of the results the poll gets.
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cinyc
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,719


« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 06:56:45 PM »

LOL Grin

Dems on Atlas, you are not alone! MSNBC are with you, my dear unskewers!

#UnskewCNN


That isn't unskewing, that is actually forecasting based on how the actual electorate will look. Gallup got into trouble last cycle because they had a bad forecast of the electorate.

Because we know for a fact that the 2016 electorate will look exactly like the 2012 electorate, right?

This is exactly what the unskewers have done in the past - weigh the poll to the results they want instead of the results the poll gets.


Did you not learn anything from 2012? You were predicting a Romney win, because the electorate surely couldn't look like 2008 and would be whiter. I don't have to remind anyone how that election turned out, but the fact of the matter is the electorate never regresses in presidential elections.

I'm not going to go back to my 2012 posts, but I'm pretty sure I wasn't predicting anything, let alone a Romney win.  I rarely make predictions here.  Did I hope Romney would win?  Of course.  But I don't unskew polls.

My attitude towards polls is been pretty much the same that it has always been - it is a snapshot of the electorate at a given time, using the methodology the pollster used.  Nothing more.  Nothing less.  I don't get worked up about one particular poll because it is only one data point of many.  But, unlike 538, I've never put too much stock in a particular pollster's track record because past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  And I tend to care more about trends from one poll by the same pollster to another than the toplines - because even if a pollster's methodology sucks, it's likely to suck in a uniform way.
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