Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 21, 2019, 03:08:22 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print
Author Topic: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!  (Read 5639 times)
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,898
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 06, 2016, 08:02:48 am »

I'm questioning the credibility of polls this season. Reuters/Ipsos just polled Texas 5 days ago with Trump leading by 17.
I doubt the state swung 18 points in 5 days.

Yeah, that's ridiculous, but if one poll had to be wrong, it would be Reuters, which has produced some weird outliers this year. Before Reuters, there was only one poll that showed Trump leading by more than 10, and the most recent pre-Reuters poll (by PPP) showed Trump up by 6 last month (at the same time Reuters showed him up 14). The PPP poll had a larger sample size and was a better indicator of the race then. It makes more sense to assume a 6-7 point swing over the course of a month than an 18 point swing over a week. However, it's probably best to average the polls to get Trump +9, which makes the most sense.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,919
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 06, 2016, 08:04:53 am »

Do you think people are lying to pollsters more than in the past? I do think that Texas or Utah won't really be that close and that Colorado will only be that close if Trump wins. For that matter, I don't expect Arizona or Georgia to be any close that they have been unless Clinton wins and by enough to get at least close in the Senate. Of course, regional politics might be in decline.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 08:52:22 am by Spicy Purrito »Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 06, 2016, 08:05:44 am »

Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is Survey Monkey Smiley
Logged
Mallow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 765
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 06, 2016, 08:06:35 am »

In a 50-state poll two or three state results should be outside the margin of error based on statistics alone.

Yep. People automatically say "junk" to these 50-state polls because of odd inconsistencies, but odd inconsistencies are to be expected simply from statistical noise. That doesn't mean all the data is worthless. It means we should be considering all polls, regardless of whether they're released as a single state poll or a group of them, with the proper amount of skepticism. They're useful, but there's bound to be errors.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,273
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 06, 2016, 08:07:23 am »

This poll was taken from Aug 9 to Sep 1 throw it in the trash
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,898
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 06, 2016, 08:10:09 am »

Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is Survey Monkey Smiley

It's Washington Post/Survey Monkey. It's on the Washington Post's website. The Washington Post has an A+ grade.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,273
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: September 06, 2016, 08:12:34 am »

The poll was taken over a 24 day period it is trash
Logged
LLR
LongLiveRock
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,126


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: September 06, 2016, 08:25:51 am »

LOL Johnson's at 25 in NM and 23 in UT Tongue
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,898
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: September 06, 2016, 08:28:07 am »

The poll was taken over a 24 day period it is trash

No, but Trump's not doing so well in this poll if it was taken over a 4 day period you'd still find an excuse to say it's trash.
Logged
Sorenroy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,094
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.52, S: -3.83

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: September 06, 2016, 08:30:01 am »

Why would you poll all 50 states but not DC? It has a higher population than either Vermont or Wyoming, and I don't see anything that would make it extraordinarily difficult to poll.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: September 06, 2016, 08:30:31 am »

Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is from Survey Monkey Smiley
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,851


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: September 06, 2016, 10:10:22 am »

Let's give Trump Florida and Michigan (where he's down by 1 or 2- or insert PA for MI if you prefer).  Then, you get this fun map:

I'm making the executive decision that if he's only down 3 in Maine, he's up in ME-02.  Not sure about being up 10 in Nebraska relative to NE-02, especially that's the part of the state where Johnson and Stein will do well.



IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TEXAS!!!
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,928
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: September 06, 2016, 10:11:49 am »

Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

Yeah, LOL. As much as I like this to be true, it's not happening.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: September 06, 2016, 10:16:56 am »

Shouldn't these be put into the database as Survey Monkey, not WaPo polls?
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: September 06, 2016, 10:23:13 am »

These 50-state polls are always junk. Much as I'd like to believe that Texas is a virtual tie, it's not. And Iowa will not be to the right of it.
Logged
Figueira
84285
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,788


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: September 06, 2016, 10:35:05 am »

Should this be added to the database?
You're going to add a poll that has Clinton + 1 in TX while having Trump +3 in OH and +4 in IA? Alright

You can't ignore a poll purely because you don't like the results. I highly doubt Clinton is leading in Texas, but it's still a good poll AFAICT.
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,851


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: September 06, 2016, 11:00:15 am »

The second page of comments isn't displaying for me, even though I know there are more (I posted about an hour ago, and that and all subsequent ones won't show up).

FIXED
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 11:14:30 am by ExtremeRepublican »Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: September 06, 2016, 11:15:14 am »

You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!
Keep in mind that with this poll, about 2 1/2 polls will fail as a matter of science. Some screwy results should be expected.
Logged
Mallow
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 765
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: September 06, 2016, 11:59:45 am »

Why would you poll all 50 states but not DC? It has a higher population than either Vermont or Wyoming, and I don't see anything that would make it extraordinarily difficult to poll.

It says right in the article that the sample size was too small for DC. Just because its population is higher doesn't mean more people were surveyed.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,939
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: September 06, 2016, 12:13:45 pm »

Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

Yeah, LOL. As much as I like this to be true, it's not happening.

I don't believe it myself. First of all, the three-way poll suggests a tie, and a 1% lead for a Democratic nominee where no Democratic nominee has had a lead since at least 1996? The word "significant" keeps us from accepting insignificant leads as proof of someone having a good chance. The last PPP poll had Trump up by 5% or so. There has been no Presidential campaigning in Texas. I don;t expect many ad buys in the fiendishly-expensive TV markets of Texas. 

But if Texas is much closer than normal, then that may say things about some other states that aren't so R-leaning as Texas -- like Arizona and Georgia.   
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: September 06, 2016, 12:21:23 pm »

Also keep in mind that Survey Monkey is still RV vs. LV. for Reuters That may also explain some of the differences.

Also for some of the Reuters polls, the MOEs are crazy, generally for states with less than 3,000,000 or so in population or < 6 EV.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 12:28:20 pm by Seriously? »Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: September 06, 2016, 12:26:36 pm »

Texas!
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,712
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: September 06, 2016, 12:27:27 pm »

You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!

RE-ALIGNMENT FOLKS!
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: September 06, 2016, 12:33:48 pm »

Shouldn't these be put into the database as Survey Monkey, not WaPo polls?
Yes, it should. Whoever added it as WaPo is lyin', crocked pundit! Cheesy
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 48,146
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: September 06, 2016, 12:42:58 pm »

Except for a few outliers, these numbers look incredibly credible ...

And yes, add them to the database.

What would the outliers be?

TX and MS.

Those 2 will be easy Trump wins.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines