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Author Topic: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!  (Read 5654 times)
Mr. Morden
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« Reply #50 on: September 06, 2016, 01:15:10 pm »

LOL Johnson's at 25 in NM and 23 in UT Tongue

Hes within striking distance of 2nd place in both states.  Tongue

New Mexico
Clinton 37%
Trump 29%
Johnson 25%
Stein 5%

Utah
Trump 34%
Clinton 27%
Johnson 23%
Stein 5%
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #51 on: September 06, 2016, 01:55:05 pm »

McMuffin will surely pull at least a few percent off Johnson in Utah. Otherwise looks reasonable. Though I think he will slide across the board closer to the election without being in the debates.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #52 on: September 06, 2016, 03:17:03 pm »

Wow, not sure how credible these are but they're definitely fun to look at.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #53 on: September 06, 2016, 03:33:28 pm »

SurveyMonkey is a C- pollster for a reason... but those Johnson numbers!
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 03:37:12 pm by John Ewards »Logged
olowakandi
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« Reply #54 on: September 06, 2016, 04:05:55 pm »

Trump is in so much trouble, FL, VA and AZ.
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Noted Irishman
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« Reply #55 on: September 06, 2016, 04:34:40 pm »

Since each state has a sample size sufficient enough to be its own poll, I think it's very important to not discount the overall showing because of a few outliers. Conduct 50 polls of the country - or of any state - and you're bound to have at least a few ridiculous outliers. In this case, MS and TX, with a few more that are less absurd.
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LLR
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« Reply #56 on: September 06, 2016, 05:00:39 pm »

Since each state has a sample size sufficient enough to be its own poll, I think it's very important to not discount the overall showing because of a few outliers. Conduct 50 polls of the country - or of any state - and you're bound to have at least a few ridiculous outliers. In this case, MS and TX, with a few more that are less absurd.

Not to undermine your point, but RI is a much bigger outlier than either MS or TX
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OneJ
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« Reply #57 on: September 06, 2016, 05:14:45 pm »

Any cross tabs? I'm obviously getting too excited for obvious reasons! Cheesy
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #58 on: September 06, 2016, 05:15:21 pm »

Any cross tabs? I'm obviously getting too excited for obvious reasons! Cheesy
No
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michelle
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« Reply #59 on: September 06, 2016, 05:16:16 pm »

Any cross tabs? I'm obviously getting too excited for obvious reasons! Cheesy

Questions 1-2 and 5-8 are being held "for future release". So, you're gonna have to wait.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #60 on: September 06, 2016, 05:17:21 pm »

Anyone know whether they polled the Senate races? That would be amazing...
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #61 on: September 06, 2016, 05:25:01 pm »

Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

I did say this was possible earlier this year.....lol who knows.

But Clinton also losing in Iowa. We have seen a trend for polls showing Hilary Clinton slipping behind in Iowa. 

If well-educated white suburbanites are beginning to vote in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as they are doing in such states as California and Illinois (extreme D states),  Minnesota and Pennsylvania (not-so-extreme D states) or Florida and Ohio (legitimate swing states), then Donald Trump can lose those three states. Maricopa County (including practically all of Greater Phoenix, including its suburbs) and Tarrant in Texas (including most of the western half of the Dallas-Fort Worth "Metroplex" go D if the suburban white vote goes about half D. Texas has some suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Johnson, Fort Bend, and Galveston that could swing enough votes to make the state swing strongly D. Enough? Who knows?

...Something on Texas: the right-wing swing in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s resulted from newcomers then largely from the North and West being more Republican than Texans on the whole. But such people have kept their Northern political cultures while the Republicans grabbed the "Yellow Dog" Democrats who voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990s. (Texas was close when Bill Clinton was running for President... but remember well that southwestern Arkansas, where Bill Clinton is from, is much like eastern Texas). The Northern political culture has become much more Democratic.

It could be that political trends in Texas lag those in such states as Florida and Virginia. Of course, this could also be a one-time event.

Hillary Clinton obviously wins Ohio before she wins Texas. 

Is it possible for a Republican nominee for President to be callow and crass enough to offend enough Texas voters to cause some a million or so to vote against that nominee? Sure. It is possible. Hillary Clinton cannot win Texas, but Donald Trump can certainly lose it.

As I stated elsewhere Tejas is a high floor/low ceiling state for Democrats, and I suspect that 3rd Party voters here are coming disproportionately from Republican leaning voters.

All being said, the key county is actually none of those listed above...

Harris County (Pop 4 Million with only 1.1 Million voters in '12 is actually ground-zero for any Democratic surge in Texas. 15% of the state population and voters live here, and *IF* Clinton can win here with something like 55-45 (Bipolar Election) it will single-handed subtract oer 100k votes from McCain's '08 950k vote margin.

Additionally, this looks like the year that Fort Bend County (SW Metro Houston) will likely flip, considering Trump's support levels with Asian-American voters.

Montgomery County (Not mentioned above) is absolutely key to any Democratic close race in Texas.... although the population is relatively small it is an overwhelmingly Republican suburban/exurban county that is highly educated and home to many affluent voters living in the Woodlands and frequently working in high-paying jobs at the new Exxon Campus.... this county gave McCain an 80k vote lead, and essentially erases any marginal Dem victory in Harris county and then some....

There are many additional areas in suburban counties in Metro DFW that you referenced, but I actually could envision greater swings in Denton and Collins county than Tarrant County.

Metro Austin--- It would be difficult to see Dems wining Texas without making Williamson County a tossup. This is a suburban highly educated county based around Dell's Round Rock Corp facility, which is a population where one might expect major swings with educated White voters. Obviously there is room to expand in Travis County, to add to Dem margins in one of the larger non DFW/Houston Metro areas in the state.

Metro- San Antonio (S.A)---- Most of the population is located within Bexar county, including a huge number of Latino "Old Tejano" voters, as well as White educated professionals moving to S.A. from elsewhere in the country as part of a booming local economy, and being located "deep in the hear of Texas" is one of the fastest growing cities in the state. I could actually see Bexar county going Dem by 15+ points against the current Republican nominee.

Additionally, for Texas to be competitive, there would need to be a significant defection of Republican support among Anglos in EastTex, that tend to vote more like Whites in Louisiana and Alabama, and tend to identify more as Southerners.

West Texas, has a large and rapidly growing Latino population, and was one of the few regions in the country where there was a net swing towards Obama in '12, and although many of these counties are sparsely populated, a collapse of Tejano Republican support will significantly cut into Trump vote margins in this part of the state.

South Texas--- Considering the large Tejano population we could likely expect significant swings as well, and I suspect Nueces County (Corpus Christi) will flip this year, and we will significant increase in Democratic margins up and down the Rio Grande valley.

Tons of *IFs* and still not seeing Texas move Democratic in '16, but the key variables are collapse of Tejano Republican support combined with dramatic drop-off of Republican support in White Collar suburbs of Houston, DFW, SA, and Austin, as well as a decent chunk of Republicans voting Libertarian in EastTex, WestTex, and in general in more rural parts of the state.



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dspNY
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« Reply #62 on: September 06, 2016, 06:32:13 pm »

I did some long math, put it on an excel worksheet, and if these polls are accurate or close to accurate, it would show a national result of Clinton 47.8%, Trump 42.6%, and 9.6% undecided. If you readjust Texas to Trump +15 (I used 52/37) and MS to Trump +15 (the same 52/37) then we get a national result of Clinton 47.1%, Trump 43.1%
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KingSweden
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« Reply #63 on: September 06, 2016, 06:36:13 pm »

I did some long math, put it on an excel worksheet, and if these polls are accurate or close to accurate, it would show a national result of Clinton 47.8%, Trump 42.6%, and 9.6% undecided. If you readjust Texas to Trump +15 (I used 52/37) and MS to Trump +15 (the same 52/37) then we get a national result of Clinton 47.1%, Trump 43.1%

Which... Corroborates the average. Huh.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #64 on: September 06, 2016, 10:53:29 pm »

Assuming this is true and an accurate portrayal of the race, then it's good news for Johnson.
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BeTo In DiSaRrAy
Fubart Solman
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« Reply #65 on: September 07, 2016, 12:32:43 am »

Assuming this is true and an accurate portrayal of the race, then it's good news for Johnson.

Very good news. 25% in New Mexico? Damn.
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Lok
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« Reply #66 on: September 07, 2016, 04:17:58 am »

Nate Silver has adjusted all 50 polls by 2 points in Trump's favor.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #67 on: September 07, 2016, 10:06:49 am »

In a 50-state poll two or three state results should be outside the margin of error based on statistics alone.
Not 12 standard deviations.
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LLR
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« Reply #68 on: November 09, 2016, 08:55:01 pm »

This poll was the closest we ever saw Wisconsin. It was a junk 50-state poll, and it was still Clinton +2. What the hell.
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