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Author Topic: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!  (Read 5659 times)
dspNY
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« on: September 06, 2016, 06:11:11 am »

Sample sizes for each state at least 550

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-surveymonkey-50-state-poll/2086/
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Bernie 2020
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 06:15:14 am »

Some uh, notable results here.
Mississippi = Trump + 2
North Carolina = Tie
Georgia = Tie
Arizona = Clinton + 1
Iowa = Trump + 4
Ohio = Trump + 3
Michigan = Clinton + 2
Wisconsin = Clinton + 2
Texas = Clinton + 1
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 06:15:24 am »

Clinton leading in Texas, lol.
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Bernie 2020
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 06:16:30 am »

You heard it here first everyone, Ohio and Iowa are to the right of Mississippi and Texas!
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 06:17:40 am »

Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 06:19:52 am »

Except for a few outliers, these numbers look incredibly credible ...

And yes, add them to the database.
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Bernie 2020
dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2016, 06:20:22 am »

Should this be added to the database?
You're going to add a poll that has Clinton + 1 in TX while having Trump +3 in OH and +4 in IA? Alright
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michelle
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 06:21:13 am »

Reading through the results.

2-way: Clinton +2 in FL and CO, TIED in GA. RIP Swing state Connecticut. Trump up 15 in IN, 4 in IA. ME within single digits. Clinton up 2 in MI, 9 in MN, Trump only up TWO in MS. RIP swing state Missouri. Clinton up 9 in NH, 5 in NV, tied in NC. Trump is up 3 in Ohio, somebody assassinated all the happy Dakota farmers. Clinton up in TX Huh Trump up 7 in SC (maybe next time), Clinton up 8 in VA, 4 in PA, RIP swing states Oregon, Utah. #Trumpunder60 in WV.

4-way: tie in CO, Clinton +2 in FL, Trump +1 in GA. Trump +4 in IA, Clinton +3 (!) in ME, Clinton +1 in MI, Clinton +6 in NH, JOHNSON AT 25% IN NM, UT within single digits, STEIN AT 10% IN VT.

smallest sample size: VT with 550, largest: TX with 5,147

It's good to see a 50-state poll that is actually good. Can't wait to see fivethirtyeight add these.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 06:28:38 am by Left »Logged
dspNY
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 06:28:43 am »

Should this be added to the database?
You're going to add a poll that has Clinton + 1 in TX while having Trump +3 in OH and +4 in IA? Alright

If you do 50 polls 3 or 4 of them will be outliers and in this case it looks like TX, MS, MI and WI are the outliers
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Trapsy
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2016, 06:29:32 am »

Quote
With nine weeks until Election Day, Donald Trump is within striking distance in the Upper Midwest, but Hillary Clinton’s strength in many battlegrounds and some traditional Republican strongholds gives her a big electoral college advantage, according to a 50-state Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll.

The survey of all 50 states is the largest sample ever undertaken by The Post, which joined with SurveyMonkey and its online polling resources to produce the results. The state-by-state numbers are based on responses from more than 74,000 registered voters during the period of Aug. 9 to Sept. 1. The individual state samples vary in size from about 550 to more than 5,000, allowing greater opportunities than typical surveys to look at different groups within the population and compare them from state to state.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-new-50-state-poll-shows-exactly-why-clinton-holds-the-advantage-over-trump/2016/09/05/13458832-7152-11e6-9705-23e51a2f424d_story.html


https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/2016-election/50-state-poll/


Despite how atrocious HRC is performing, Trump is really doing damage. Obviously, I am taking this with a grain of salt but god how bad is trump gonna ruin the down ticket candidates across the country.
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diskymike44
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2016, 06:29:39 am »

Except for a few outliers, these numbers look incredibly credible ...

And yes, add them to the database.

What would the outliers be?
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2016, 06:33:25 am »

Although I kind of want Texas to be tied so we can actually be important for once Smiley
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2016, 06:39:18 am »

Somebody poll Maine and Mississipi ASAP
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diskymike44
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2016, 06:39:43 am »

Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

I did say this was possible earlier this year.....lol who knows.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2016, 06:39:50 am »

Gary Johnson is at 25% in New Mexico, close to overtaking Trump for 2nd place.
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Lok
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2016, 06:40:17 am »

How is Mississippi, Texas and Georgia a toss-up when states like Ohio and Iowa are on the Republican side?
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michelle
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« Reply #16 on: September 06, 2016, 06:40:30 am »

2-way map (shading based on size of the lead):



Clinton 357
Trump 150
Tied 37

4-way (shading based on size of the lead):



Clinton 298
Trump 193
Tied 47

Strength maps (based on the 4-way; shading is relative, 50% shading for Clinton and Trump means 36-40%, for Johnson it's 7-9%, for Stein it's 5%)

Clinton:



Trump:



Johnson:



Johnson is at or above 10% in 42 states, and at or above 15% in 14 states.

Stein:



Stein only reaches double digits in one state (Vermont), where she's still in fourth place.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 07:53:43 am by Left »Logged
Phony Moderate
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« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2016, 06:41:46 am »

Hope this is right, if only because the map would be fun.
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Trapsy
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« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2016, 06:46:36 am »

How is Mississippi, Texas and Georgia a toss-up when states like Ohio and Iowa are on the Republican side?

\_(ツ)_/¯
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #19 on: September 06, 2016, 07:13:41 am »

Some of these seem right while others seem wrong
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: September 06, 2016, 07:31:24 am »

Clinton leading in Texas, lol.

I did say this was possible earlier this year.....lol who knows.

But Clinton also losing in Iowa. We have seen a trend for polls showing Hilary Clinton slipping behind in Iowa. 

If well-educated white suburbanites are beginning to vote in Arizona, Georgia, and Texas as they are doing in such states as California and Illinois (extreme D states),  Minnesota and Pennsylvania (not-so-extreme D states) or Florida and Ohio (legitimate swing states), then Donald Trump can lose those three states. Maricopa County (including practically all of Greater Phoenix, including its suburbs) and Tarrant in Texas (including most of the western half of the Dallas-Fort Worth "Metroplex" go D if the suburban white vote goes about half D. Texas has some suburban counties (Collin, Denton, Rockwall, Johnson, Fort Bend, and Galveston that could swing enough votes to make the state swing strongly D. Enough? Who knows?

...Something on Texas: the right-wing swing in Texas in the late 1970s and early 1980s resulted from newcomers then largely from the North and West being more Republican than Texans on the whole. But such people have kept their Northern political cultures while the Republicans grabbed the "Yellow Dog" Democrats who voted for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990s. (Texas was close when Bill Clinton was running for President... but remember well that southwestern Arkansas, where Bill Clinton is from, is much like eastern Texas). The Northern political culture has become much more Democratic.

It could be that political trends in Texas lag those in such states as Florida and Virginia. Of course, this could also be a one-time event.

Hillary Clinton obviously wins Ohio before she wins Texas. 

Is it possible for a Republican nominee for President to be callow and crass enough to offend enough Texas voters to cause some a million or so to vote against that nominee? Sure. It is possible. Hillary Clinton cannot win Texas, but Donald Trump can certainly lose it.
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Kempros
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« Reply #21 on: September 06, 2016, 07:41:25 am »

I'm questioning the credibility of polls this season. Reuters/Ipsos just polled Texas 5 days ago with Trump leading by 17.
I doubt the state swung 18 points in 5 days.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: September 06, 2016, 07:44:41 am »

Basically I can start over with this set of polls in my general map. There may be some strange results.... but counter-intuitive results can be right.
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muon2
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« Reply #23 on: September 06, 2016, 07:47:47 am »

In a 50-state poll two or three state results should be outside the margin of error based on statistics alone.
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Kempros
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« Reply #24 on: September 06, 2016, 07:49:34 am »

As far as the Dallas/Fort Worth is concerned, from what I notice is that Trump support runs high. Maybe more so then previous Rep nominees.

To win Texas, you would probably have to do well in the DFW and shut out the Houston area, and just don't see Clinton doing that this time.
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