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Author Topic: WaPo/SurveyMonkey: All 50 states!  (Read 5649 times)
michelle
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« on: September 06, 2016, 06:21:13 am »

Reading through the results.

2-way: Clinton +2 in FL and CO, TIED in GA. RIP Swing state Connecticut. Trump up 15 in IN, 4 in IA. ME within single digits. Clinton up 2 in MI, 9 in MN, Trump only up TWO in MS. RIP swing state Missouri. Clinton up 9 in NH, 5 in NV, tied in NC. Trump is up 3 in Ohio, somebody assassinated all the happy Dakota farmers. Clinton up in TX Huh Trump up 7 in SC (maybe next time), Clinton up 8 in VA, 4 in PA, RIP swing states Oregon, Utah. #Trumpunder60 in WV.

4-way: tie in CO, Clinton +2 in FL, Trump +1 in GA. Trump +4 in IA, Clinton +3 (!) in ME, Clinton +1 in MI, Clinton +6 in NH, JOHNSON AT 25% IN NM, UT within single digits, STEIN AT 10% IN VT.

smallest sample size: VT with 550, largest: TX with 5,147

It's good to see a 50-state poll that is actually good. Can't wait to see fivethirtyeight add these.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 06:28:38 am by Left »Logged
michelle
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 06:40:30 am »

2-way map (shading based on size of the lead):



Clinton 357
Trump 150
Tied 37

4-way (shading based on size of the lead):



Clinton 298
Trump 193
Tied 47

Strength maps (based on the 4-way; shading is relative, 50% shading for Clinton and Trump means 36-40%, for Johnson it's 7-9%, for Stein it's 5%)

Clinton:



Trump:



Johnson:



Johnson is at or above 10% in 42 states, and at or above 15% in 14 states.

Stein:



Stein only reaches double digits in one state (Vermont), where she's still in fourth place.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2016, 07:53:43 am by Left »Logged
michelle
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 08:02:48 am »

I'm questioning the credibility of polls this season. Reuters/Ipsos just polled Texas 5 days ago with Trump leading by 17.
I doubt the state swung 18 points in 5 days.

Yeah, that's ridiculous, but if one poll had to be wrong, it would be Reuters, which has produced some weird outliers this year. Before Reuters, there was only one poll that showed Trump leading by more than 10, and the most recent pre-Reuters poll (by PPP) showed Trump up by 6 last month (at the same time Reuters showed him up 14). The PPP poll had a larger sample size and was a better indicator of the race then. It makes more sense to assume a 6-7 point swing over the course of a month than an 18 point swing over a week. However, it's probably best to average the polls to get Trump +9, which makes the most sense.
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michelle
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 08:10:09 am »

Should this be added to the database?

Yes. The Washington Post is a reputable pollster
It is Survey Monkey Smiley

It's Washington Post/Survey Monkey. It's on the Washington Post's website. The Washington Post has an A+ grade.
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michelle
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 08:28:07 am »

The poll was taken over a 24 day period it is trash

No, but Trump's not doing so well in this poll if it was taken over a 4 day period you'd still find an excuse to say it's trash.
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michelle
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 05:16:16 pm »

Any cross tabs? I'm obviously getting too excited for obvious reasons! Cheesy

Questions 1-2 and 5-8 are being held "for future release". So, you're gonna have to wait.
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