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Author Topic: Home-stretch polling  (Read 30937 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: September 06, 2016, 08:50:29 am »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states, missing only the District of Columbia and the separately-voting Congressional Districts of Maine and Nebraska. With such a rich collection of polls, I can begin anew:

Blank map.



OK -- not that new!

This is all by the same pollster even with over 5000 people polled in Texas, and some of the results are counter-intuitive. We can ignore prior controversies from hereon and be stuck with new ones (oh, well!). Counter-intuitive data can be right, and change in the way people show valid perception of the world often begins with counter-intuitive data. In a binary choice:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):

Blank map.



Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.   

Numeric data here:

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-surveymonkey-50-state-poll/2086/


A few comments:

1. We no longer have the situation in which anyone has a lead with less than 45% of the vote in any state. I will include no such polling results hereon unless the margin is outside the margin of error (4%).

2. I could say such things as "Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin typically closes late and hard against Republicans in a Presidential year", but I cannot say whether an inverse is true in other states. What you  see happening in polls will be what you get.

3. As always I will reject any polls from trade associations, campaigns, political parties, lobbyists, unions, ethnic associations, or advocacy groups. Until recently I might have done so on the principle that 'beggars can't be choosers', but I am not begging any more. I already have data for all 50 states.

4. I was tempted to expect that the Dakotas might trend D because they are reasonably-well-educated states... but Donald Trump is doing well there.

5. Texas is a gigantic surprise. Of course a 1% lead there by a Democratic nominee is both counter-intuitive and practically insignificant. So basically, don't make a bet that Hillary Clinton will win Texas unless it be a long shot. 

6. The only real chance that I see for a Trump pick up from any Obama state from 2012 is Iowa. Usually Iowa votes much like Wisconsin, but this time it seems to be voting more like Nebraska or South Dakota.     

7. The small margin (by usual standards) for Nebraska suggests that the Second Congressional District will be in play. Maine's Second Congressional District will not be a quick call, but I can reasonably expect that Hillary Clinton will get all four electoral votes from Maine.

8. Mississippi close? What is going on there?

9. Wyoming looks like the best state for Trump, and Maryland looks like the best state for Clinton.

Binary here so far.

   
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2016, 08:54:15 am »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

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michelle
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2016, 08:58:33 am »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

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Roll Eyes

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 09:00:36 am »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

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Roll Eyes

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

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Are they C- though? I cant find a rating for them on 538.
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Pandaguineapig
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« Reply #4 on: September 06, 2016, 09:02:42 am »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

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Roll Eyes

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

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Yes, Ohio being to the right of Texas and Mississippi over a 24 day polling period looks right
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michelle
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« Reply #5 on: September 06, 2016, 09:08:32 am »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

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Roll Eyes

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.

And the Washington Post did play a role in this poll.

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Yes, Ohio being to the right of Texas and Mississippi over a 24 day polling period looks right

50 state polls are bound to have a few inconsistencies, but it's (a) better than Ipsos, (b) previous polls in Texas and Mississippi have shown it within single digits, and other polls have shown a Trump lead in Ohio.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: September 06, 2016, 09:09:23 am »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 09:11:21 am by LittleBigOctopus »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

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Roll Eyes

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.
They have still nothing to do with WaPo.

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[/quote]
This has nothing to do with WaPo. Ipsos state survey has not same sample as they weekly polls, but is still done by Ipsos. Same here.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: September 06, 2016, 09:11:02 am »

50 state polls are bound to have a few inconsistencies, but it's (a) better than Ipsos, (b) previous polls in Texas and Mississippi have shown it within single digits, and other polls have shown a Trump lead in Ohio.
Based on what?

Whatever... You're choosing the polls Smiley
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: September 06, 2016, 09:13:22 am »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 09:19:15 am by pbrower2a »

We will have more polls. Anything that fits the criterion of a lead with at least 45% for the leader and without an agenda for the pollster can supplant this one.

We have polls for states that had not been polled -- like those in the High Plains and some that hadn't been polled for a very long time -- maybe last year or so. So, yes, we can start with this. Polling samples at least look large.

Example: PPP polled Florida  this weekend.

Does anyone think that PPP, Quinnipiac, Marist, or many of the other active pollsters will shut down?

This is a clean, but practically full slate. Beginning no later than tomorrow I consider these polls obsolete that anything not from a pollster with an agenda will supplant these polls.
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michelle
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« Reply #9 on: September 06, 2016, 09:16:08 am »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 09:17:46 am by Left »

The Washington Post has polled all fifty states.
No, it was C- online pollster Survey Monkey.

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Roll Eyes

Really, just stop. You can't discount polls just because they are from a C- pollster as long the results look right. And in this case, they do.
They have nothing to do with WaPo still.

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This has nothing to do with WaPo. Ipsos state survey has not same sample as they weekly polls, but is still done by Ipsos. Same here.
[/quote]

And Ipsos is an A pollster, so you trust it's results, right?After all A=automatically good and C- = automatically bad.

The truth is that Reuters does have an effect on the Ipsos polling, and the Washington Post did affect this poll when it comes to weighting.
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michelle
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2016, 09:17:21 am »

50 state polls are bound to have a few inconsistencies, but it's (a) better than Ipsos, (b) previous polls in Texas and Mississippi have shown it within single digits, and other polls have shown a Trump lead in Ohio.
Based on what?

Whatever... You're choosing the polls Smiley

For one, it has less of a house effect and has produced more accurate polls this election.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2016, 09:23:17 am »

And Ipsos is an A pollster, so you trust it's results, right?After all A=automatically good and C- = automatically bad.

The truth is that Reuters does have an effect on the Ipsos polling, and the Washington Post did affect this poll when it comes to weighting.
Evidence?

I'm not saying Monkey is a bad pollster. But it has nothing to do with WaPo. And pbrower2a wants to do them more reliable by omitting this fact.

For one, it has less of a house effect and has produced more accurate polls this election.
You think? Both have D house effect

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: September 06, 2016, 10:14:47 am »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 12:01:12 pm by pbrower2a »

Now -- the tricky one, the three-way or four-way map.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):



I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for 40-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire. Clinton is up by 6 in New Hampshire (small state that makes seeing the numbers tricky).

Numeric data here:

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-surveymonkey-50-state-poll/2086/
.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: September 06, 2016, 10:22:42 am »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 05:34:13 pm by pbrower2a »

I went to great effort to set up this map so that we have something to work with. The completeness of the polling does not indicate its reliability, but for many states for which we would otherwise have nothing, we now have something.

Remember: there will be more polls. I am guessing that at this stage, an 8-point lead is practically unsurmountable barring a calamity for a nominee, and cracking 50% is difficult in a three-way race.

There will be new polls to replace some of these. Not every state will have such polls.  
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: September 06, 2016, 10:34:00 am »
« Edited: September 08, 2016, 08:10:42 am by pbrower2a »

First new poll by the Baltimore Sun  -- Maryland.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-trump-clinton-poll-20160906-story.html

756 LV, B- poll (according to 538). Four-way only.

Clinton     55%
Trump      26%
Jonhson     6%
Stein         2%

Nothing changes.

Idaho, Dan Jones:

44% Trump
23% Clinton
13% Johnson
  2% Stein
12% Others
  5% Undecided

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1218-Bob%20Bernick,%20Idaho%20Politics%20Weekly%20Contributor

Who are the "others" here?

Missouri, Remington:

47% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

The poll was taken Sept. 1 and Sept. 2. It polled 1,275 likely voters and was commissioned by MoScout.

http://themissouritimes.com/33365/poll-shows-republicans-koster-well/

Consistent with the extant poll.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.


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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2016, 11:57:51 pm »

Trump - 50%
Clinton - 38%
Johnson - 3%
Stein - 1%

Quote
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leads Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton by 12 percentage points in a new poll released by a conservative South Carolina political management firm.

In the poll released by First Tuesday Strategies, Trump has 50 percent of South Carolina voters' support, while Clinton has 38 percent. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Jill Stein registered low numbers in the poll of 775 likely voters; Johnson received 3 percent and Stein received 1 percent. Undecided voters made up the remaining 8 percent.

This poll, conducted between Aug. 30 and Sept. 1, comes the same day as a Washington Post-Survey Monkey poll of all 50 states showed Trump ahead by 7 percentage points in South Carolina and 4 percent of voters undecided when presented with all four national candidates. The Washington Post-Survey Monkey poll was conducted online, while First Tuesday Strategies' Palmetto Presidential Poll was conducted via landline phone numbers. Both polls are the first to be conducted in South Carolina independent of a political party since Nov. 2015 and the Washington Post-Survey Monkey poll is the first poll independent of any politically-adjacent group.

http://www.wltx.com/mb/news/politics/poll-trump-up-by-12-points-in-sc/314493283

Why I can't use it.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2016, 04:32:54 am »

This is what I had before -- lots of states in gray. I will make some compromises to gind completeness.


Binary race, Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) 



Leader up with

60% or more -- saturation 80%
55-59% --     saturation 70%
50-54% --     saturation 60%
46-49%, margin 4% or greater saturation 40%
46-49%, margin 3% or less saturation 20%

(the usual color applies for the partisan leader, but yellow blue to green and red to orange below:) 

40-45%, margin 4% or greater, saturation 40%
43-45%, margin 3% or less, saturation 20% 











Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2016, 08:04:41 am »
« Edited: September 08, 2016, 09:23:48 am by pbrower2a »

Old polls compiled by PPP on a group that wishes to get the ninth Justice on the US Supreme Court.

Pennsylvania

47% Clinton (D)
42% Trump (R)

http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/PAToplines1.pdf

New Hampshire

46% Clinton (D)
41% Trump (R)

http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/NHToplines1.pdf

Iowa

45% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)

http://weneednine.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/IAToplines1.pdf

What may be even more telling is that the gambit of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to ensure that Barack Obama does not get his appointee to the Supreme Court ratified no matter what does not help two Republican Senators get re-elected... and a third one, long-time incumbent Chuck Grassley, could be hurt should the Democrats succeed in using that against him.

Now a big and current poll of Florida by PPP for its own sake:

Trump 44
Clinton 43
Johnson 5
Stein 1
McMullin 1

Clinton 47
Trump 46

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/presidential-race-up-for-grabs-in-florida.html

Colorado President by Magellan Strategies on 2016-08-31[/url]

Summary: D: 41%, R: 36%, I: 16%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

This is from a Republican-leaning pollster. No binary choice.




Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.


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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2016, 08:07:53 am »

Why is this topic stickied? This is nonsense sperging.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: September 08, 2016, 08:22:52 am »

Why is this topic stickied? This is nonsense sperging.

It starts a polling scheme practically anew based upon one collection of 50 statewide polls.

I like completeness, and I will make some compromises to get it. As with the weather, if you dislike one poll (unless you have cause for calling a foul), then wait for another, especially in swing states. I was able to start with a map filled in, which answers plenty of questions that we already have... such as whether the High Plains states really can vote for Donald Trump or whether they consider his flamboyance off-putting. The collection answered my question, if not in the way that I wanted to find an answer.

The moderators seem to like my thread. I put much effort into it. When I call fouls I am consistent. But this map is a fresh start. This map does not project anything other than how the November election looks from a point in time.

I like completeness. So do the moderators.   

...in case you think that I believe that Hillary Clinton has a real chance of winning Texas, then that is simply what the most recent poll says. 

If you want your own polling thread, one that 'unskews' polls to suggest that Donald Trump will be the 45th President based on some inexorable dynamics that my snapshot doe snot show, then go ahead.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2016, 02:49:11 pm »
« Edited: September 08, 2016, 11:52:37 pm by pbrower2a »

Quinnipiac, FL/OH/NC/PA

Florida
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 47%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

Ohio
Trump - 46%
Clinton - 45%

Trump - 41%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 4%

Pennsylvania
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

North Carolina
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 15%

From August 29 - September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376

No0rth Carolina:

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_8_2016_north_carolina_tables_updated.pdf

Trump: 44%
Clinton: 41%
Johnson: 4%

Donald Trump realistically needs at least three of these states to have a chance of winning the Presidency. The average is less than 1% for Hillary Clinton in North Carolina.

...Trump needs to be up more than this in Ohio to win it in November; the Democrats can expect strong GOTV efforts by unions and minority groups while Republicans have nothing as effective.



Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.



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« Reply #21 on: September 08, 2016, 05:00:50 pm »

Trump is within 2 pts 51/49 election would be a 272-266 race with CO, not OH as the bellweather
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« Reply #22 on: September 08, 2016, 10:58:31 pm »

Trump is within 2 pts 51/49 election would be a 272-266 race with CO, not OH as the bellweather

So is CO part of the freiwal in this scenario?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #23 on: September 09, 2016, 12:49:30 pm »

Louisiana -- Anzalone-Liszt, a very Democratic pollster.

Trump 46
Clinton 40
Johnson 3
Stein 0
Undecided 6
Neither 4


https://lapolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ALG-Topline-Report.pdf

I'm not using this one.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: September 09, 2016, 03:29:52 pm »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 10:16:47 am by pbrower2a »

Indiana, Howey Polling, WTHR-TV (NBC-13, Indianapolis)

YouGov, Florida and Ohio

Image Link

Republican nominees for president have not won nationally without winning Indiana by at least 10% since...

Ohio:

Clinton 46
Trump 39
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Florida:

Clinton 44
Trump 42
Johnson 5
Stein 2

13 state battleground tracker: Clinton 43, Trump 42

Note the huge drop in support for Gary Johnson in both states.


https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/09/11/clinton-holds-ohio-lead-trump-gains-florida/

Marist, four states:



NH:

RV:

Clinton 37%
Trump 36%
Johnson 17%
Stein 3%

LV:

Clinton 39%
Trump 37%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%


AZ:

RV:

Clinton 37%
Trump 37%
Johnson 13%
Stein 4%



LV:

Trump 40%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%

GA:

RV:

Clinton 41%
Trump 40%
Johnson 11%

LV:

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 10%

NV:

RV:

Clinton 41%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

LV:

Trump 42%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

Basically ties. Valid polls, but I really can't use them because leaders have less than 45%.

In related news, Republican incumbents are up significantly in Arizona and Georgia, have a slight edge in the race for the open seat in Nevada, and have taken back the lead for the US Senate in New Hampshire. The Koch strategy seems to be working to keep the GOP in control of the Senate, and perhaps on the way to a veto-proof Senate in 2018.



Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




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