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Author Topic: Home-stretch polling  (Read 26556 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #25 on: September 09, 2016, 09:47:55 pm »

A critical demographic shows how it projects in battleground states:


AZ: Clinton 71, Trump 17
CO: Clinton 69, Trump 17
FL: Clinton 63, Trump 27
NC: Clinton 73, Trump 14
NV: Clinton 71, Trump 14
OH: Clinton 61, Trump 22
VA: Clinton 70, Trump 20

400 Latino voters were polled in each state

http://www.latinodecisions.com/blog/2016/09/09/the-trump-effect-in-the-swing-states-new-state-polling-from-americans-voice-and-latino-decisions/

In Florida, Cuban-Americans go for Trump -- but Puerto Ricans go heavily for Clinton.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #26 on: September 12, 2016, 12:17:20 pm »

California, Los Angeles Times:

Clinton 49
Trump 29
Johnson 11
Stein 6

Clinton 58
Trump 33

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-presidential-poll-20160912-snap-story.html


IVR FOX 2 Detroit – Mitchell Poll of Michigan
Conducted September 6-7, 2016 Survey
(N=940 Likely Voters)

45% Clinton
39% Trump
  7% Johnson
  1% Stein

47% Clinton
42% Trump

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-9-16.pdf

Oregon, Portland Tribune (four-way

Toplines:
Clinton 43
Trump 28
Johnson 11
Stein 4

http://pamplinmedia.com/pt/9-news/322388-202046-poll-shows-brown-leading-in-governors-race?utm_source=New+Media&utm_medium=twitter


http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/10765-
Dan Jones & Associates, SEP. 1-9

Compared to    JUL. 18-AUG. 4:

Trump   39% (+2)
Clinton  24% (-1)
Johnson 13% (-3)
McMullin  9% (----)
Castle     2% (----)
Stein       0% (-1)
Other      6% (-7)

Utah could have the weirdest electoral results in November. Neither Clinton not Trump is a good cultural match for Utah.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-by-6-8-in-virginia.html

PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%
McMullin - 1%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 42%

878 likely voters surveyed between September 9th and 11th.






Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




« Last Edit: September 13, 2016, 01:45:10 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: September 14, 2016, 01:15:48 am »

Kansas, SUSA:

48% Trump (R)
36% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

No binary data.


Maine, SUSA:


Clinton - 42%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 5%

The poll of 779 likely voters statewide was conducted via automated phone calls and web surveys from Sept. 4 through 10. It had a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/politics/2016/09/13/new-poll-shows-competitive-race-maine/YNsB57jVpHmEJcJsFZRXMP/story.html?event=event25







Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




« Last Edit: September 14, 2016, 01:21:03 am by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #28 on: September 15, 2016, 07:58:34 pm »

Geez, Lungazi really taking it's toll (yes, I said it).
And out of curiosity, this may be a stupid question, but does anyone know who Johnson and Stein are taking votes from?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: September 16, 2016, 09:28:25 pm »

Play up Kaine.

The VP has as his greatest Constitutional responsibility being ready in the event of the Unthinkable. His second responsibility is as President of the Senate. Third? He could be a sort of Minister without Portfolio, much as Dick Cheney was (well, let's hope not as devious as Dick Cheney).

Also take some swipes at Mike Pence for his reactionary agenda... anti-feminist and anti-worker, at the least.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #30 on: September 20, 2016, 08:26:05 am »

Back to this polling thread. Leads that I saw for Donald Trump made me physically ill. Yes, I have a bias -- against someone who advocates political violence, who promotes breaking up families in the name of mass deportation, who vilifies whole ethnic and religious  groups. I have enough personal problems as it is, and hearing someone attack the core decencies of the American experiment in democracy could push me over the edge.

But if I am to show a comeback by Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump going into the tank, I must show Trump charging, if only for a week. And by charging I do not mean putting 'surf 'n' turf on a charge card.

Iowa, Monmouth:

45% Trump (R)
37% Clinton (D)
8% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_091516/

Nevada, Monmouth:


44% Trump (R) (+3)
42% Clinton (D) (-3)
8% Johnson (L) (+3)


http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_091416/


Michigan, EPIC/MRI
 
Img



A bunch of polls from Emerson College -- the first batch stank when they first came out, so I am not using this batch.

Minnesota, Mason-Dixon  

44% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)
  6% Johnson (L)
  2% Stein (G)

Ohio  -- three polls (Monmouth, CNN, and Selzer for Bloomberg -- Trump up 4.67 on average.







Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.




« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 11:32:10 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #31 on: September 20, 2016, 09:05:06 am »

Geez, Lungazi really taking it's toll (yes, I said it).
And out of curiosity, this may be a stupid question, but does anyone know who Johnson and Stein are taking votes from?

Considering what Donald Trump has said about arresting people who disagree with him (just think of it -- I disagree with Donald Trump on about every position and his basic character, I am staunchly anti-drug except on marijuana; if I were to go to jail I might have to share a cell with a doper, and that would be extremely unpleasant for both the doper and me)...

Anyone who can support Donald Trump after implications that he would gut the First Amendment to get his political way is in the literal 'basket of deplorables'.

You believe in the Bill of Rights and the 13th, 14th, and 15th Amendments to the Constitution as a minimal standard of governmental ethics or you are not a patriotic American. It is that simple. My loyalty is to the Constitution and not to the economic elites of his country.

« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 09:19:29 am by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #32 on: September 20, 2016, 09:31:17 am »

We may be seeing some reduction of the extreme polarization between the states that appeared when Barack Obama was President. This may be Donald Trump, who (in view of some of his rash statements) should offend anyone with a three-digit IQ.

Img


Yes, there are white people with above-average intelligence in some states in which Barack Obama absolutely got crushed in 2008 and 2012. But Hillary Clinton may be getting weakened support from blue-collar workers in the North. Trend or reversion?
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« Reply #33 on: September 20, 2016, 02:08:26 pm »

Florida, Monmouth:

Among 400 Likely Voters, conducted Sept. 16th-19th:

Clinton 46 (-2)
Trump 41 (+2)
Johnson 6 (nc)
Stein 1 (nc)

Official report: http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_092016/

Out of the margin of error, and Donald Trump cannot win without Florida. This pollster showed Trump up 8 in Iowa last week, so such suggests a real comeback.

Elon, North Carolina. PPP will give us a poll in a couple of days, and I trust PPP more than anyone else on North Carolina. The PPP poll will supplant this one. Trump cannot be anywhere close to losing North Carolina to have a real chance of winning.  

https://www.elon.edu/e/elon-poll/poll-archive/092016.html

Trump 44
Clinton 43
Johnson 6

North Dakota, DFM Research:

43% Donald Trump (R)
32% Hillary Clinton (D)
8% Gary Johnson (L)
1% Jill Stein (G)

https://de.scribd.com/document/324685567/ND-Pres-DFM-Research-Sept-2016
https://www.sayanythingblog.com/entry/poll-trump-leads-clinton-north-dakota-neither-50-percent/

Oklahoma, Sooner Poll.

51% Trump
36% Clinton
  6% Johnson

The poll of 515 Oklahoma likely voters was conducted between September 13-15. It carries a margin of error of 4.32 percent. The poll's results were stratified to represent the state's likely voter population.

http://newsok.com/clinton-gains-some-ground-on-trump-in-oklahoma-poll-shows/article/5518562

Oklahoma hasn't voted for a Democratic nominee for President since 1964, and that streak will hold this year. Anyone who believes  otherwise is a fool. This is still rather weak for a Republican in Oklahoma.

Pennsylvania, Muhlenberg College.

http://www.mcall.com/news/local/elections/mc-pa-trump-clinton-poll-20160917-story.html

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 40%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 5%

Poll was conducted from Sept. 12-16.

Well out of the margin of error. Pennsylvania has to be close for Donald Trump to have a reasonable chance of winning. An 8% lead is solid.


Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 50% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

Note: Gary Johnson is in second place, above Donald Trump, in New Mexico. Jill Stein is at 10 (just under Johnson) in New Hampshire.





« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 11:53:34 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #34 on: September 20, 2016, 10:22:02 pm »

Why are you still showing Ohio as a strong Democratic lead? There's been six polls of the state since the start of the month, and only one found a Clinton lead with the rest showing Ohio leaning Trump. For reference:

9/1 - Washington Post, R+3
9/7 - Quinnipiac, R+4
9/9 - YouGov, D+7
9/12 - Selzer, R+5
9/12 - CNN, R+5
9/14 - Suffolk, R+3

At the very least, it should be noted as tossup if not lean Trump.
« Last Edit: September 20, 2016, 10:26:15 pm by EpicHistory »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #35 on: September 20, 2016, 11:29:33 pm »

Why are you still showing Ohio as a strong Democratic lead? There's been six polls of the state since the start of the month, and only one found a Clinton lead with the rest showing Ohio leaning Trump. For reference:

9/1 - Washington Post, R+3
9/7 - Quinnipiac, R+4
9/9 - YouGov, D+7
9/12 - Selzer, R+5
9/12 - CNN, R+5
9/14 - Suffolk, R+3

At the very least, it should be noted as tossup if not lean Trump.

I missed them in the "recovery" process.

Ohio, three polls:

CNN
Trump 46
Clinton 41
Johnson 8
Stein 2

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/09/14/ohiopoll.pdf

Suffolk:
https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/776449329217220608

Trump - 42
Clinton - 39
Johnson - 4
Stein - 1

Bloomberg:

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll

Trump 48 Clinton 43

Trump 43 Clinton 38 Johnston 10 Stein 3

...The three polls  average to Trump up 4.67.

I will backtrack.  Thank you.

By the way -- with recent national tracking polls with Hillary Clinton with leads around 5^, the next poll of Ohio is likely to show a Clinton lead. 
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« Reply #36 on: September 22, 2016, 09:23:22 am »

Colorado:

540 LV, 9/14-9/18:

Clinton: 44
Trump: 35

Bennett: 45
Glenn: 32

gjsentinel.com/news/articles/university-jumps-into-politics


Who are these guys?

Monmouth, New Hampshire:

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from September 17 to 20, 2016 with 400 New Hampshire residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of + 4.9 percent.  The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute in West Long Branch, NJ.

Clinton 47
Trump 38
Johnson 10
Stein 1


http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NH_092116/

New Hampshire must be close in a Republican win in recent years. It isn't this time.

Three by Fox News, usually a good pollster.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/09/21/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-clinton-in-battlegrounds-nevada-n-carolina-ohio.html

Nevada:

Trump - 43%
Clinton 40%
Johnson - 8%

Ohio:

Trump - 42%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%

North Carolina:

Trump - 45%
Clinton - 40%
Johnson - 6%

North Carolina goes to an average. of about 3%. I cannot use the ones for Nevada and Ohio  for binaries.

Virginia, Roanoke University:

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_politics_sept2016

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 8%

Clinton - 51%
Trump - 40%

...Corroborates other polls. No Republican has won the Presidency without Virginia since 1924.

Wisconsin, Marquette University

Clinton:44
Trump:42
2 Way LV

Clinton: 43%
Trump: 38%
2 Way RV

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 38%
Johnson: 11%
Stein: 2%
4 Way LV

Clinton:39%
Trump:35
Johnson:12%
Stein:3%
4 Way RV

Not usable, lead with less than 45% in a binary election. Wisconsin is looking close now...

Wyoming:


New Poll: Wyoming President by DFM Research on 2016-09-11

Summary: D: 19%, R: 54%, I: 12%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

WY would anyone expect differently?

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 50% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  

« Last Edit: September 22, 2016, 09:40:05 am by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #37 on: September 22, 2016, 11:57:56 pm »

California,PPIC


50% Clinton (D)
33% Trump (R)
6% Stein (G)
5% Johnson (L)

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/election/presidential-election/article102803037.html

Stein is ahead of Johnson in California! Otherwise, nothing unexpected.

Maryland, Goucher

58% Clinton (D)
25% Trump (R)
6% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

http://www.wbaltv.com/politics/goucher-poll-tracks-races-for-president-senate/41779158

No surprise here.

Colorado:
Clinton: 44%
Trump: 42%
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 2%

Georgia:
Trump: 47%
Clinton: 40%
Johnson: 9%

Iowa:
Trump: 44%
Clinton: 37%
Johnson: 10%
Stein: 2%

Virginia:
Clinton: 45%
Trump: 39%
Johnson: 8%
Stein: 1%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2381

No binaries. Colorado becomes an average between Q and the college poll.

Louisiana:

500 LV, Sept. 15-17:

49% Trump
33% Clinton
  8% Johnson
11% Undecided

(Jill Stein wasn't asked)

http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/2016_louisiana_senate_race_wan.html

Blowout here.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.  




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R) vs. Gary Johnson (L):




I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 50% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote.  Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).  


I will be away for the weekend, so I may not be posting.
« Last Edit: September 23, 2016, 09:27:17 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #38 on: September 28, 2016, 10:43:45 am »

It may be troublesome, but I may have a fresh cause for a restart.  Monday's debate performance by Hillary Clinton was understated, civil, and topical without going for the kill. Donald Trump's debate performance was simply execrable.

I'm going binary only. If Gary Johnson were to have a chance at a late-season charge, he has yet to show it.  

This is time for a nearly-complete restart. Nearly complete, because old polls for some states may be all that we will ever have. Some states (and the District of Columbia) just don't get polled often. Begin by clearing all results for states except those for which little credible polling exists  and whose electoral character is a lock. If there is any controversy about polling I now show nothing until I see a new poll.

Multitudes who had tuned out Donald Trump for a while have gotten the chance to see him. They had to if they were to see Hillary Clinton in the debate.

States (and DC)  whose prior results look uncontroversial include

AL AK AR CA CT DE DC HI ID IL IN KS KY LA MD MA MT NE (except for the second congressional district) NJ ND NY OK OR RI TN VT WA WV WY

All other states go blank (gray) now.

Even Texas and Utah hold some controversies. Anything close before the debate will not be shown here. Afterward? Of course.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 182
Donald Trump (R)  94
« Last Edit: September 29, 2016, 12:33:36 am by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #39 on: September 29, 2016, 01:49:04 am »

First one. Mitchell Poll of Michigan. Every four years, Michigan looks within contention until late in the season... only to become not-so-close due to a Democratic get-out-the-vote drive.

You cannot knock a poll that fails to show something yet to happen. A polling thread is not the definitive prediction.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_9-28-16.pdf

Clinton 49 (47)
Trump 44 (42)

Clinton 46 (45)
Trump 41 (39)
Johnson 8 (7)
Stein 1 (1)
Undecided 4 [Sunglasses

Debate winner
Clinton 51
Trump 25

White
Clinton 44
Trump 48

Black
Clinton 75
Trump 20 Huh

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 198
Donald Trump (R)  94

« Last Edit: September 29, 2016, 09:03:43 am by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #40 on: September 29, 2016, 09:18:10 am »

PPP, for VoteVets.com .  Five swing states. Binary choices only. Advocacy group, but veterans' interests are hardly to the left on the political spectrum.


Colorado

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 51, Trump 44

Florida

Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1

Clinton 48, Trump 45

North Carolina

Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 7

Clinton 49, Trump 45

Pennsylvania

Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 49, Trump 44

Virginia

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1

Clinton 49, Trump 43


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-in-key-battlegrounds-seen-as-big-debate-winner.html

Fresh in the minds of people who have seen or have heard reports of the debate, the debate shows signs of having hurt Donald Trump's chance to win in November. Margins may not be huge, but these will be hard to cut into. I can't say that these will hold, but I can now say that a Trump victory is now a long shot that depends upon fundamental change of the electoral reality in America.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 285
Donald Trump (R)  198


« Last Edit: September 29, 2016, 03:31:12 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #41 on: September 29, 2016, 09:35:35 am »

Winthrop College, South Carolina.

42% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

This poll was in the field from September 18 – 26, 2016.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article104839496.html
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Bad poll for Trump, but due to the timing I can't really use it here. These are post-convention polls, and the pre-convention polls that I show here have no prior controversy and weren't close.

 
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« Reply #42 on: September 30, 2016, 06:58:21 am »

California

Survey USA/KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV (4-way) Clinton +26

Clinton 59% (+2)
Trump 33% (+1)
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%
Undecided 3%

817 LV; September 27-28, 2016; MOE +/-2.5%

Link: https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/survey_usa_president_senate_092916.pdf

Florida. Mason-Dixon

Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001

New Hampshire:

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ECU-NH-Memo-Sep29.pdf

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 4%

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 40%

This survey was conducted on behalf of End Citizens United, and was weirdly conducted from 9/25-27, right before and after the debate.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with a R+0.2 house effect.

Another New Hampshire poll, this by MassInc:

42% Clinton (D)
35% Trump (R)
13% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

47% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)

Clinton leads 59/30 among NH females in the head to head matchup. Overall, probably a too Trump-friendly poll.

Nevada:



Suffolk Poll of Nevada - Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 44-38 with GJ 7, others 2, "none of these" 3 (a NV option), 5 und, and 1 refused

Ignore Johnson and Hillary Clinton is over 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 295
Donald Trump (R)  94




« Last Edit: September 30, 2016, 08:36:56 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #43 on: October 02, 2016, 03:56:43 am »

New Mexico, Albuquerque Journal

Four-way:

35% Clinton
31% Trump
24% Johnson
  2% Stein


Two-way:

It's Clinton +10 in the head-to-head:
Clinton 44%
Trump 34%
Wouldn't Vote 11%
Other 3%
Undecided/Don't Know 8%


https://www.abqjournal.com/857961/clinton-trump-in-tight-race-in-new-mexico.html

Because "will not vote" might as well be ignored altogether, Hillary Clinton would be close to  
getting 50% of the vote anyway.

An obscure poll puts Hillary Clinton out in front only 1% in Nevada. Thus the average of 3.5%.

Colorado, Monmouth:

HRC: 49
DJT: 38
GJ: 7
JS: 3

SENATE:
Bennet: 53
Glenn: 35


https://t.co/s2NLUflhcI

...not a binary. Strong D.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 300
Donald Trump (R)  94





« Last Edit: October 03, 2016, 12:31:47 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #44 on: October 03, 2016, 11:49:10 pm »

Bloomberg/Selzer, North Carolina:

H2H: Clinton 46, Trump 45
3-way: Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2*

*Stein is not on the ballot in NC

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/north-carolina-poll?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

Donald Trump cannot win without North Carolina and can lose without it. Selzer was really good in 2009 and 2012.

Quinnipiac, four key states of which Trump must win three.

Head to head:

FL: Clinton 49, Trump 44
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 43
OH: Trump 49, Clinton 46
NC: Clinton 49, Trump 46

Delaware, U of Delaware. As if anyone could be surprised.

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/03/clinton-poll-delaware/91462456/

Clinton 51
Trump 30
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Oregon, Hoffman

http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1475532480/HOFFMAN_0916_SURVEY_REPORT_mdltu9.pdf

Clinton 45
Trump 33
Johnson 8
Stein 3

9/29 - 10/1, 605 LV

another poll of North Carolina (Elon):

Personal Message (Online)
   
   
NC-Elon University: Clinton +6
« on: Today at 09:08:39 am »    
Reply with quote Ignore
https://www.elon.edu/E/elon-poll/poll-archive/100416.html
https://www.elon.edu/e/CmsFile/GetFile?FileID=649 (crosstabs work in IE, not in Chrome for me)

7 point swing to her since 9/20

Clinton 45 (43)
Trump 39 (44)
Johnson 9 (6)
Undecided/Other/Refused 7

White
Clinton 39 (35)
Trump 61 (65)

Black
Clinton 98 (98)
Trump 2 (2)

Even if an outlier, it suggests that the Trump campaign is in deep quicksand.

Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State University:

Middle Tennessee State University:

50% Trump
38% Clinton
  5% Johnson
  1% Stein

http://mtsupoll.org/2016/10/04/f2016pres

Republican winning margins in Tennessee since 2000:

2000  4%
2004 14%
2008 15%
2012 23%

The 12% margin looks rather weak now. 





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 300
Donald Trump (R)  112







« Last Edit: October 04, 2016, 01:46:03 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #45 on: October 05, 2016, 11:12:52 am »

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/783640247070560256
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783641151920300032
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/

It's a mix of polls and "analysis"

Clinton’s lead:
National +4

MI +5
CO +5
NH +4
WI +3
NC +2
FL +2
PA +2
NV +2
IA +1
OH +1
GA TIE

Incorporating this data as well as I can, and that is for margins under 3 for something that I do not already have.

ME-02: Clinton up 4.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Clinton has gone back to up 4 in the second congressional district of Maine, the only possible electoral vote that Trump has had a real chance of wining to the north and east of the Potomac. 





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  112








« Last Edit: October 05, 2016, 06:13:45 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #46 on: October 05, 2016, 06:17:47 pm »

New Mexico, SurveyUSA:

46% Hillary
33% Trump
14% Johnson
  2% Stein
  2% Others


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fda53900-e6db-46a6-86a5-81e39fd92d32

KTVT, CBS-11, Dallas/Fort Worth, Dixie Strategies


Sept. 29 - Oct. 1 (Last poll Aug. 8-9)
780 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.51%
538 rating: C+

Trump: 44.87% (-1.4)
Clinton: 37.95% (+2.5)
Johnson: 4.23%
Stein: .9%

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/10/05/trump-leads-clinton-gains-in-latest-texas-ktvt-cbs-11-dixie-strategies-poll/

Not the first time that I have seen polls of Texas showing Donald Trump up by a less-than-solid majority. But this is enough for me to put another 38 electoral votes on the polling map.
    
Two separate, obscure polls cause me to turn Ohio into a tie, so I take off 18 of those electoral votes from a Trump projection.  

Michigan, EPIC-MRI

http://www.wxyz.com/news/exclusive-poll-democrat-hillary-clinton-opens-up-double-digit-michigan-lead-on-gops-donald-trump

4 way:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 3%

No binary. Donald Trump would have to take all of the Johnson vote to win Michigan, and he will not do that. 43% of 87% is very close to 50%.  This is up from a 3% margin in the previous poll by this pollster.

A Trump collapse is evident in Michigan.

Florida, University of Northern Florida

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-967b-de60-a3ff-fe7b11760001

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 40%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 3%

This could either be an outlier or evidence of a Trump collapse.

Indiana, WTHR-TV (NBC 13, Indianapolis), Howey Polling.

http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-clinton-trump-presidential-race-tightens
Trump 43 (43)
Clinton 38 (36)
Johnson 11 (11)
Undecided 8 (10)

Indiana is about 10% more Republican than the USA as a whole. Trump will likely win Indiana, but this narrow margin suggests that Indiana will be the only state east of the Mississippi and north of either the Ohio or the Potomac that will go for him.





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 34








« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 05:07:09 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #47 on: October 06, 2016, 06:43:26 pm »

Arizona.

Arizona poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights of 718 LV from 9/28-9/30:

Clinton - 42
Trump - 42
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-5C5134BA69C80539

Maryland, University of Maryland, Washington Post.

September 27-30

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/larry-hogans-approval-soars-buoyed-by-his-disavowal-of-donald-trump/2016/10/05/3e84b330-88de-11e6-b24f-a7f89eb68887_story.html

Clinton 63%
Trump 27%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Van Hollen 58%
Szeliga 29%
Flowers 5%

This poll also has Hogan at 71% favorable, the 3rd poll in the past month showing his favorability at 70% or more.

SMACKDOWN!

Massachusetts, WNEU

58% Clinton
26% Trump
  7% Johnson
  4% Stein

Quote
The statewide telephone survey of 403 likely voters, conducted September 24, through October 3, found that even with third party candidates accounting for 11 percent of the vote, Clinton holds a lead in Massachusetts comparable to her husband’s margin of victory here in 1996.

http://www1.wne.edu/news/2016/10/z-presidential-poll-tables.pdf

Tennessee, Vanderbilt University.

Trump: 44
Clinton: 33
Johnson: 7
Stein: 1

Among 18-29s Clinton is in serious danger of finishing third, with Trump leading Clinton and Johnson 38-28-22.

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2016/10/06/vupoll/

West Virginia.

Trump — 60%
Clinton — 28%

500 Likely Voters, MOE of 5%. Conducted September 13th to September 17th (so it's a little old).

Not much but the head to head. It seems to be mostly a poll for the more local (statewide) races.

Source





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 45









« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 07:16:34 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #48 on: October 06, 2016, 07:05:14 pm »

Ohio, PPP. The tie-breaker here. Because of the critical nature of Ohio (it was the tipping-point state in 2004) I am dedicating one post to this state. In view of what PPP has to say about Ohio, such is justified.

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
5% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

48% Clinton (D)
47% Trump (R)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/tight-race-for-president-in-ohio.html

Quote
Ohio's emblematic of what we see in much of the country. Voters don't like Hillary Clinton- she has a 42/54 favorability rating. But they like Donald Trump even less, with his favorability coming in at 38/56. To put Trump's unpopularity in the state in perspective, we asked Ohioans whether they have a more favorable opinion of Trump or the University of Michigan- and 'That School Up North' beat out Trump 48/33.

One thing that could help Clinton win Ohio in the end is that voters in the state say they'd rather have four more years of Barack Obama as President than Trump, 51/45. If Clinton can effectively convince voters she would be the continuation of the country's current direction that they prefer to the sharp pivot a Trump presidency would represent, it could put her over the top here.

Barack Obama is appearing for a GOTV drive in Cleveland. This could kill the Trump campaign in Ohio.

Other detail:

Quote
-There's been a lot of discussion this week about whether Donald Trump is a good role model for children, and voters in Ohio pretty emphatically say that he is not. Just 23% consider him to be a good role model, with 64% saying he isn't. It's not surprising that only 3% of Clinton voters think Trump's a good role model, with 96% saying that he isn't. But what's more striking is that even among Trump's own voters, just 46% will say that he's a good role model, to 31% who say he isn't, and 23% who aren't sure.

The Republican incumbent in the Senate will be re-elected.

As for potential for sore-loser attitudes:

Quote
-There continues to be a pervasive feeling among Trump voters that if Hillary Clinton wins the election, it will only be because of voter fraud. 71% of Trump voters say that if Clinton wins it will be because the contest was rigged, to only 13% who grant that it might be because she got the most votes in the election.

My comment: Should Hillary Clinton win Ohio, then she will have won it fair and square despite Ohio having one of the more popular republican governors.

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 335
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 27










« Last Edit: October 06, 2016, 07:17:42 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #49 on: October 07, 2016, 01:13:10 am »

KOMO-TV (ABC-4, Seattle), Washington:

http://komonews.com/news/local/komo-poll-clinton-has-big-washington-lead-big-unfavorables-inlsee-leads

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 33%

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 31%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

This is an old poll, but the state in question seems stable enough in polling that I can put it here without accusations of partisan bias.

South Carolina, Winthrop University.  

42% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

This poll was in the field from September 18 – 26, 2016.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article104839496.html
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

As for Maine, the only electoral vote reasonably in doubt was ME-02. It's hard to see the rest of Maine 'compensating' for a swing in the vote in ME-02.

Virginia, Hampton University.


http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/HU-Poll%3A-Post--Debate-Surge-Gives-Democrats-Double--Digit-Surge-among-Virginians

Clinton 46
Trump 34
Don't Know/Refused 20

9/28-10/2, 800 LV

Last poll they had back in Aug was Clinton 43, Trump 41

Wisconsin, Gravis for right-wing Breitbart:

48% Hillary
40% Trump
  4% Johnson
  1% Stein



https://de.scribd.com/document/326778927/Wisconsin-Polling-Oct-5

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  141
(in white) ties -- 27
« Last Edit: October 07, 2016, 07:27:16 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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