Home-stretch polling (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 01:45:53 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Home-stretch polling (search mode)
Pages: 1 [2] 3
Author Topic: Home-stretch polling  (Read 47147 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #25 on: September 29, 2016, 09:18:10 AM »
« edited: September 29, 2016, 03:31:12 PM by pbrower2a »

PPP, for VoteVets.com .  Five swing states. Binary choices only. Advocacy group, but veterans' interests are hardly to the left on the political spectrum.


Colorado

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 51, Trump 44

Florida

Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 1

Clinton 48, Trump 45

North Carolina

Clinton 44, Trump 42, Johnson 7

Clinton 49, Trump 45

Pennsylvania

Clinton 45, Trump 39, Johnson 6, Stein 2

Clinton 49, Trump 44

Virginia

Clinton 46, Trump 40, Johnson 7, Stein 1

Clinton 49, Trump 43


http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/09/clinton-leads-in-key-battlegrounds-seen-as-big-debate-winner.html

Fresh in the minds of people who have seen or have heard reports of the debate, the debate shows signs of having hurt Donald Trump's chance to win in November. Margins may not be huge, but these will be hard to cut into. I can't say that these will hold, but I can now say that a Trump victory is now a long shot that depends upon fundamental change of the electoral reality in America.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 6
50-54.9%        --  saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 285
Donald Trump (R)  198


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #26 on: September 29, 2016, 09:35:35 AM »

Winthrop College, South Carolina.

42% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

This poll was in the field from September 18 – 26, 2016.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article104839496.html
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

Bad poll for Trump, but due to the timing I can't really use it here. These are post-convention polls, and the pre-convention polls that I show here have no prior controversy and weren't close.

 
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #27 on: September 30, 2016, 06:58:21 AM »
« Edited: September 30, 2016, 08:36:56 PM by pbrower2a »

California

Survey USA/KABC-TV/KPIX-TV/KGTV-TV/KFSN-TV (4-way) Clinton +26

Clinton 59% (+2)
Trump 33% (+1)
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%
Undecided 3%

817 LV; September 27-28, 2016; MOE +/-2.5%

Link: https://cbssanfran.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/survey_usa_president_senate_092916.pdf

Florida. Mason-Dixon

Clinton 46%
Trump 42%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-79b0-de4f-a777-79fb8c9c0001

New Hampshire:

http://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/ECU-NH-Memo-Sep29.pdf

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 37%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 4%

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 40%

This survey was conducted on behalf of End Citizens United, and was weirdly conducted from 9/25-27, right before and after the debate.

This pollster has a B rating on 538 with a R+0.2 house effect.

Another New Hampshire poll, this by MassInc:

42% Clinton (D)
35% Trump (R)
13% Johnson (L)
4% Stein (G)

47% Clinton (D)
38% Trump (R)

Clinton leads 59/30 among NH females in the head to head matchup. Overall, probably a too Trump-friendly poll.

Nevada:



Suffolk Poll of Nevada - Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 44-38 with GJ 7, others 2, "none of these" 3 (a NV option), 5 und, and 1 refused

Ignore Johnson and Hillary Clinton is over 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 295
Donald Trump (R)  94




Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #28 on: October 02, 2016, 03:56:43 AM »
« Edited: October 03, 2016, 12:31:47 PM by pbrower2a »

New Mexico, Albuquerque Journal

Four-way:

35% Clinton
31% Trump
24% Johnson
  2% Stein


Two-way:

It's Clinton +10 in the head-to-head:
Clinton 44%
Trump 34%
Wouldn't Vote 11%
Other 3%
Undecided/Don't Know 8%


https://www.abqjournal.com/857961/clinton-trump-in-tight-race-in-new-mexico.html

Because "will not vote" might as well be ignored altogether, Hillary Clinton would be close to  
getting 50% of the vote anyway.

An obscure poll puts Hillary Clinton out in front only 1% in Nevada. Thus the average of 3.5%.

Colorado, Monmouth:

HRC: 49
DJT: 38
GJ: 7
JS: 3

SENATE:
Bennet: 53
Glenn: 35


https://t.co/s2NLUflhcI

...not a binary. Strong D.

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 300
Donald Trump (R)  94





Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #29 on: October 03, 2016, 11:49:10 PM »
« Edited: October 04, 2016, 01:46:03 PM by pbrower2a »

Bloomberg/Selzer, North Carolina:

H2H: Clinton 46, Trump 45
3-way: Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 2*

*Stein is not on the ballot in NC

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-03/north-carolina-poll?utm_content=politics&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-politics

Donald Trump cannot win without North Carolina and can lose without it. Selzer was really good in 2009 and 2012.

Quinnipiac, four key states of which Trump must win three.

Head to head:

FL: Clinton 49, Trump 44
PA: Clinton 48, Trump 43
OH: Trump 49, Clinton 46
NC: Clinton 49, Trump 46

Delaware, U of Delaware. As if anyone could be surprised.

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/03/clinton-poll-delaware/91462456/

Clinton 51
Trump 30
Johnson 7
Stein 2

Oregon, Hoffman

http://res.cloudinary.com/bdy4ger4/image/upload/v1475532480/HOFFMAN_0916_SURVEY_REPORT_mdltu9.pdf

Clinton 45
Trump 33
Johnson 8
Stein 3

9/29 - 10/1, 605 LV

another poll of North Carolina (Elon):

Personal Message (Online)
   
   
NC-Elon University: Clinton +6
« on: Today at 09:08:39 am »    
Reply with quote Ignore
https://www.elon.edu/E/elon-poll/poll-archive/100416.html
https://www.elon.edu/e/CmsFile/GetFile?FileID=649 (crosstabs work in IE, not in Chrome for me)

7 point swing to her since 9/20

Clinton 45 (43)
Trump 39 (44)
Johnson 9 (6)
Undecided/Other/Refused 7

White
Clinton 39 (35)
Trump 61 (65)

Black
Clinton 98 (98)
Trump 2 (2)

Even if an outlier, it suggests that the Trump campaign is in deep quicksand.

Tennessee, Middle Tennessee State University:

Middle Tennessee State University:

50% Trump
38% Clinton
  5% Johnson
  1% Stein

http://mtsupoll.org/2016/10/04/f2016pres

Republican winning margins in Tennessee since 2000:

2000  4%
2004 14%
2008 15%
2012 23%

The 12% margin looks rather weak now. 





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 300
Donald Trump (R)  112







Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #30 on: October 05, 2016, 11:12:52 AM »
« Edited: October 05, 2016, 06:13:45 PM by pbrower2a »

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/783640247070560256
https://today.yougov.com/us-election/
https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/783641151920300032
https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/03/election-model-methodology/

It's a mix of polls and "analysis"

Clinton’s lead:
National +4

MI +5
CO +5
NH +4
WI +3
NC +2
FL +2
PA +2
NV +2
IA +1
OH +1
GA TIE

Incorporating this data as well as I can, and that is for margins under 3 for something that I do not already have.

ME-02: Clinton up 4.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Clinton has gone back to up 4 in the second congressional district of Maine, the only possible electoral vote that Trump has had a real chance of wining to the north and east of the Potomac. 





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  112








Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #31 on: October 05, 2016, 06:17:47 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2016, 05:07:09 PM by pbrower2a »

New Mexico, SurveyUSA:

46% Hillary
33% Trump
14% Johnson
  2% Stein
  2% Others


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fda53900-e6db-46a6-86a5-81e39fd92d32

KTVT, CBS-11, Dallas/Fort Worth, Dixie Strategies


Sept. 29 - Oct. 1 (Last poll Aug. 8-9)
780 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.51%
538 rating: C+

Trump: 44.87% (-1.4)
Clinton: 37.95% (+2.5)
Johnson: 4.23%
Stein: .9%

http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2016/10/05/trump-leads-clinton-gains-in-latest-texas-ktvt-cbs-11-dixie-strategies-poll/

Not the first time that I have seen polls of Texas showing Donald Trump up by a less-than-solid majority. But this is enough for me to put another 38 electoral votes on the polling map.
    
Two separate, obscure polls cause me to turn Ohio into a tie, so I take off 18 of those electoral votes from a Trump projection.  

Michigan, EPIC-MRI

http://www.wxyz.com/news/exclusive-poll-democrat-hillary-clinton-opens-up-double-digit-michigan-lead-on-gops-donald-trump

4 way:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 3%

No binary. Donald Trump would have to take all of the Johnson vote to win Michigan, and he will not do that. 43% of 87% is very close to 50%.  This is up from a 3% margin in the previous poll by this pollster.

A Trump collapse is evident in Michigan.

Florida, University of Northern Florida

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000157-967b-de60-a3ff-fe7b11760001

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 40%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 3%

This could either be an outlier or evidence of a Trump collapse.

Indiana, WTHR-TV (NBC 13, Indianapolis), Howey Polling.

http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-clinton-trump-presidential-race-tightens
Trump 43 (43)
Clinton 38 (36)
Johnson 11 (11)
Undecided 8 (10)

Indiana is about 10% more Republican than the USA as a whole. Trump will likely win Indiana, but this narrow margin suggests that Indiana will be the only state east of the Mississippi and north of either the Ohio or the Potomac that will go for him.





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 34








Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #32 on: October 06, 2016, 06:43:26 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2016, 07:16:34 PM by pbrower2a »

Arizona.

Arizona poll conducted by OH Predictive Insights of 718 LV from 9/28-9/30:

Clinton - 42
Trump - 42
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-5C5134BA69C80539

Maryland, University of Maryland, Washington Post.

September 27-30

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/larry-hogans-approval-soars-buoyed-by-his-disavowal-of-donald-trump/2016/10/05/3e84b330-88de-11e6-b24f-a7f89eb68887_story.html

Clinton 63%
Trump 27%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Van Hollen 58%
Szeliga 29%
Flowers 5%

This poll also has Hogan at 71% favorable, the 3rd poll in the past month showing his favorability at 70% or more.

SMACKDOWN!

Massachusetts, WNEU

58% Clinton
26% Trump
  7% Johnson
  4% Stein

Quote
The statewide telephone survey of 403 likely voters, conducted September 24, through October 3, found that even with third party candidates accounting for 11 percent of the vote, Clinton holds a lead in Massachusetts comparable to her husband’s margin of victory here in 1996.

http://www1.wne.edu/news/2016/10/z-presidential-poll-tables.pdf

Tennessee, Vanderbilt University.

Trump: 44
Clinton: 33
Johnson: 7
Stein: 1

Among 18-29s Clinton is in serious danger of finishing third, with Trump leading Clinton and Johnson 38-28-22.

https://news.vanderbilt.edu/2016/10/06/vupoll/

West Virginia.

Trump — 60%
Clinton — 28%

500 Likely Voters, MOE of 5%. Conducted September 13th to September 17th (so it's a little old).

Not much but the head to head. It seems to be mostly a poll for the more local (statewide) races.

Source





Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 45









Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #33 on: October 06, 2016, 07:05:14 PM »
« Edited: October 06, 2016, 07:17:42 PM by pbrower2a »

Ohio, PPP. The tie-breaker here. Because of the critical nature of Ohio (it was the tipping-point state in 2004) I am dedicating one post to this state. In view of what PPP has to say about Ohio, such is justified.

44% Clinton (D)
43% Trump (R)
5% Johnson (L)
2% Stein (G)

48% Clinton (D)
47% Trump (R)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/tight-race-for-president-in-ohio.html

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Barack Obama is appearing for a GOTV drive in Cleveland. This could kill the Trump campaign in Ohio.

Other detail:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Republican incumbent in the Senate will be re-elected.

As for potential for sore-loser attitudes:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

My comment: Should Hillary Clinton win Ohio, then she will have won it fair and square despite Ohio having one of the more popular republican governors.

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 335
Donald Trump (R)  132
(in white) ties -- 27










Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #34 on: October 07, 2016, 01:13:10 AM »
« Edited: October 07, 2016, 07:27:16 PM by pbrower2a »

KOMO-TV (ABC-4, Seattle), Washington:

http://komonews.com/news/local/komo-poll-clinton-has-big-washington-lead-big-unfavorables-inlsee-leads

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 33%

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 31%
Johnson - 10%
Stein - 4%

This is an old poll, but the state in question seems stable enough in polling that I can put it here without accusations of partisan bias.

South Carolina, Winthrop University.  

42% Trump (R)
38% Clinton (D)
6% Johnson (L)
3% Stein (G)

This poll was in the field from September 18 – 26, 2016.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/article104839496.html
http://www.winthrop.edu/winthroppoll/default.aspx?id=9804

As for Maine, the only electoral vote reasonably in doubt was ME-02. It's hard to see the rest of Maine 'compensating' for a swing in the vote in ME-02.

Virginia, Hampton University.


http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/HU-Poll%3A-Post--Debate-Surge-Gives-Democrats-Double--Digit-Surge-among-Virginians

Clinton 46
Trump 34
Don't Know/Refused 20

9/28-10/2, 800 LV

Last poll they had back in Aug was Clinton 43, Trump 41

Wisconsin, Gravis for right-wing Breitbart:

48% Hillary
40% Trump
  4% Johnson
  1% Stein



https://de.scribd.com/document/326778927/Wisconsin-Polling-Oct-5

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  141
(in white) ties -- 27
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #35 on: October 07, 2016, 11:10:15 AM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 09:40:55 PM by pbrower2a »

So what state polls would I most like to see?

Aside from the obvious ties (Arizona and Georgia) and nail-biter (Ohio)

1. Minnesota. We get few polls.

2. Iowa. Has this state gone from a Trump gain to a Clinton hold?
3. Missouri. Let's get definitive.
4. Utah. Obama would have beaten Trump here, as his behavior is closer to Mormon ideals. Utah has been quirky.
5. Mississippi. Trump is likely to win here, but that Mississippi is closer than it has been since 1980 suggests that racial polarization may be fading. This could bring huge improvements in the state's political climate into one in which people vote out the corrupt and incompetent pols even if that means voting for the other Party and against racial identity.  
6. Wisconsin. There's room for another poll by the state's definitive pollster. If a Trump collapse is underway, then Wisconsin will not be close.
7. Kansas. Like Utah, its quirky.
8. NE-02. It's only one electoral vote, but it's one of the more interesting ones.  

  
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #36 on: October 08, 2016, 10:22:55 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2016, 07:14:47 AM by pbrower2a »

Are there any polls to be released before the debate which can help guage the outcome of the weekend news cycle?

This is from an internal poll from the Senate campaign of Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). She has a huge lead in the Senate race, but in the Presidential race....


http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/07/murkowski-polling-data-shows-clinton-3-points-alaska/
37%-Trump
34%-Clinton
10%-Johnson
2%-Stein

+/-4% MoE
Conducted October 5-6.

Because the lead is with less than 40%  I must consider it a tie. A Republican should be leading by a double-digit margin in Alaska in a near-even nationwide contest. This is before the exposure of some sordid behavior that I am loath to express. Neither will I predict the result of the exposure of this behavior because it is so extreme and has such potential for political ruin.

...all I can say is that Donald Trump is a horrible example for anyone to emulate in his sexuality. Bill Clinton at least seems to have gotten some consent for what he did.

I can say this: if Donald Trump should be elected President, then I fully regret that Barack Obama was re-elected and my participation in the Obama campaign. I would far prefer a second term of Mitt Romney to a first term of Donald Trump.    

.......

Partly before, and partly after the  sordid tale:

Maine, People's Resource Center



CD-02 Clinton 44.4, Trump 45.0

  

This was from before the release of news of the crotch-grabbing episodes and before the second debate. Things could have gotten worse for Donald Trump, as if he needs any bad news from Virginia.  

Virginia, Roanoke

Clinton 45 (+9)
Trump 36
Johnson 7
McMullin 1
Stein 1

H2H
Clinton 51 (+13)
Trump 38

Conducted 10/2-6

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_oct_2016_politics


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 337
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 31

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #37 on: October 08, 2016, 05:12:39 PM »
« Edited: October 11, 2016, 09:38:18 AM by pbrower2a »

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

AHAHAHAHAHAHA. No.

Mormons are very conservative about S-E-X. Maybe you missed the news about some of The Donald's unselective physicality (so long as the female isn't a 'fat pig'). But that news came after I made that post, anyway. After that disclosure I am ready to double down on a moot hypothetical.  
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #38 on: October 11, 2016, 10:19:57 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2016, 01:23:18 AM by pbrower2a »

you mean mormon ideals like multiple wives? i figure they are married at the same time and don't file divorces cause of failes boob surgrery.

Mormons have accepted monogamy for over a century except for some offshoot cults like the "Fundamentalist Latter-Day Saints".

Mainstream Mormons are conservatives in part because they get liberal results with conservative government. Maybe that is because they don't have to spend so much money on medical costs related to alcoholism and cancerweed use in Utah. If you don't smoke, Utah may be the best bargain for taxes and government spending. The state spends its tax revenues on roads, schools, and parks .  

Mormons may hold Bill Clinton in contempt for his sex life, but Hillary Clinton has at the least proved loyal to a very flawed husband. Donald Trump is about as far from being a model of Mormon family life as there could be short of serial-murderer and rapist Ted Bundy, the latter probably the most hated man in Utah history.


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #39 on: October 12, 2016, 01:30:24 AM »
« Edited: October 12, 2016, 10:38:28 PM by pbrower2a »

...............................
Michigan, Glengarriff, Detroit News:

Clinton:42.2%
Trump: 30.6%

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/12/presidential-poll-michigan/91964392/

Not usable despite the huge margin: too many undecided.

Missouri, Monmouth:

Trump 46
Clinton 41
Johnson 5
Stein 2

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_101216/

Nevada, PPP:
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by an identical 4 point margin to Cortez Masto’s lead, at 47/43. This is the first time we’ve found Clinton and Cortez Masto  (US Senate seat open due to the retirement of Senator Harry Reid) polling on par with each other in our Nevada tracking.

New Hampshire, PPP (for a gun-control group)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/nevada-republicans-abandon-heck-for-abandoning-trump.html

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/786336536300232704

Not sure there's actually a link to the full poll, but this was conducted on behalf of Americans for Responsible Solutions (gun advocacy group):

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 37%

This one follows the report of crotch-grabbing by Donald Trump. It's Utah, typically offering six of the easiest electoral votes for a Republican nominee for President.

Clinton 26
Trump 26
McMullin 22
Johnson 14

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664606/Poll-Trump-falls-into-tie-with-Clinton-among-Utah-voters.html?pg=all

I don't know this pollster,   but it is consistent with earlier polls that have shown Donald Trump close to being tied with Hillary Clinton with neither breaking 45% of the popular vote.

Donald Trump can probably kiss Arizona good-bye.


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 36

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #40 on: October 12, 2016, 05:56:56 PM »
« Edited: October 12, 2016, 10:36:01 PM by pbrower2a »

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School. This is one of the most interesting polls, as it shows how a news story can wipe out a campaign or show the collapse of that campaign, even day to day. This can show how a campaign so fails due to the turpitude of the nominee, as if in a scandal of bribery or embezzlement.

Nobody intended to show this, but someone saw this happening and chose to give a four-day chronicle in the form of polls.   What this very good pollster did was brilliant; it leaves someone like me the material for analysis.

I am guessing that the route for going from one side to another, between Candidate A to Candidate B, goes as follows:

Candidate A >> undecided >> Candidate B   

Live Stream: https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/d4bac28d2066460da7aef4d19adcb0381d.

Clinton 44 (41 last time)
Trump  37 (38)
Johnson 9 (11)
Stein 3 (2)

Party ID (w/leaners): D-47, R-44

878 LV, 10/6-10/9: Half last Thu, half Fri-Sun, all before Sun debate

DAY BY DAY BREAKDOWN (much larger MOE):

THU: Trump 41, Clinton 40 (T+1)
FRI: Clinton 44, Trump 38 (C+6)
SAT+SUN: Clinton 49, Trump 30 (C+19)

SENATE: Feingold 46, Johnson 44
.......................

Among evangelical likely voters in WI:

Thursday: Trump 64%, Clinton 24%
Friday: Trump 55%, Clinton 32%
Sat+Sun: Trump 47%, Clinton 31%

Among white LVs without college degrees in WI:

Thu: Trump 48%, Clinton 33%
Fri: Trump 41%, Clinton 38%
Sat+Sun: Clinton 42%, Trump 35%

Fact #1: Wisconsin was close all summer until the disclosure of the crotch-grabbing.
Fact #2: The exposure of the story had swift effect, probably because it involved something with S-E-X-U-A-L overtones.  
Fact #3: Although it might not have had much of an effect on people predisposed to vote Democratic it hit others.
Fact #4: Donald Trump still leads among Christian evangelicals, but his likely vote among them has gone from 64% to 47%.
Fact #5: I have seen scandals erupt, and I have never seen them undone. Primary campaigns collapse. Nominees find their chances of winning drop off completely.
Fact #6: Voters have shown themselves particularly willing to abandon a nominee over sex, bribery, or embezzlement. They may return to the cause that they recently supported -- but only in a different politician who did nothing to betray trust. Someone offering hat Donald trump offered throughout most of 2016 will be challenging for the Presidency as early as 2020. Liberals beware: this person will likely have more control of his libido.

I see no recovery for Donald Trump, who cannot undo the damage from the exposure of his sordid sex life. Having to choose between the Saturday-Sunday polling and the polling for either Thursday or Friday or some composite thereof, I go with Saturday/Sunday. The political equivalent of a train-wreck cannot be undone in a month. The 19% lead looks like the reality for now. I'm going with that.  Newer data is better, and Marquette Law School is a very good  pollster. The 'inconsistency' cannot represent different samples or a change in polling techniques; it reflects that Wisconsin voters turned sharply against Donald Trump  very fast in Wisconsin for something that he cannot dodge, undo, or trivialize.

A vehicle collision can turn a $100K car into a piece of scrap metal in seconds. Putting it back together requires the wrecked object to be reprocessed through a forge capable of melting the metal from a Mercedes-Benz into metal that might become a Dodge Neon.

Just look at the collapse in support among 'evangelical' voters.  Donald Trump has betrayed them, and I see little chance of him winning the once-high levels of support among that he had on Thursday.

But the level of support for Hillary Clinton still falls just short of 50%.  



Wisconsin with Clinton up 19 is consistent with Clinton up 10 in Ohio in another poll.  

Wisconsin went 62-37 in 1964; it has rarely been a Democratic run away. Obama did win it by 16% in 2008, which is about in this range.  


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 36


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #41 on: October 13, 2016, 06:49:09 AM »
« Edited: October 13, 2016, 10:50:12 PM by pbrower2a »

Pennsylvania: Bloomberg/Selzer.



Hillary Clinton went over 51% in Pennsylvania, moving her into the 'solid' category in Pennsylvania.

An earlier Selzer poll (could have been obsolete data?) in Iowa fits the pattern that one would now expect in a much-more rural state, and I accept it because the Pennsylvania demographics what Selzer's Iowa poll shows. Hillary Clinton does quite well in Philadelphia suburbs, but badly in rural areas and among people with less than a college degree. But note the results for suburban Philadelphia. Old suburbs are legitimately urban now in their population. The relatively-new suburbs of Indianapolis, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Atlanta still have some rural characteristics.  Whatever was rural (low density, infrastructure still low in maintenance, and mostly home-owners) about comparatively new suburbs is no longer so in greater Philadelphia (or Boston, New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco).

Florida. Florida Atlantic University

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/224434-hillary-clinton-6-point-lead-donald-trump-new-florida-poll
http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/download.aspx?id=7274
Clinton 49 (41)
Trump 43 (43)
Undecided 7

Big gain for Hillary Clinton.

Michigan, Mitchell Polling

Post-second debate:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_10-12-16_A.pdf

Clinton 47
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

10/11, 1429 LV

"In the last two FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Polls, Clinton’s lead was only 5%. "

Suffolk University

Clinton 45
Trump 43
Johnson 5
Undecided 5

5 point swing to Clinton since early September.


https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/786596363949572096

Georgia:

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/13/new-poll-donald-trump-johnny-isakson-maintain-strong-leads-in-georgia/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_KEK8-LWmzhOVRSQXFzaGI1Si1sUDBvN0xpeVFhZzRTQTRR/view

Conducted Monday to Tuesday October 11-12.

Trump 48 (47)
Clinton 42 (43)
Johnson 4 (6)
Undecided 6 (3)

White
Trump 68
Clinton 23

Black
Trump 12
Clinton 78

...No way is Donald Trump going to get 12% of the large African-American vote in Georgia. Suspect and not to be used.

 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #42 on: October 13, 2016, 11:07:38 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2016, 09:49:56 AM by pbrower2a »

Texas. TEGNA/SurveyUSA, reported on WFAA-TV (ABC-8, Dallas/Fort Worth)



Texas is tricky to poll. Hillary Clinton can win this state, but only if she wins over 400 electoral votes. 4% is the margin of error in most states, probably within the margin of error for one of the trickiest states to poll.  Texas will be most of the low-400s in electoral votes for Hillary Clinton should she win this state.  

Texas has many well-educated white suburbanites who went strongly for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. It also has relatively-conservative Hispanics (largely Mexican-Americans) who so voted in 2008 and 2012. No state has so many people who can go from Romney (a good match for educated white people) to Trump as Texas in absolute numbers... and hardly a state has such a proportion of voters who can go from Romney to Trump. Texas will have the largest absolute swing from Romney to Clinton and one of the largest proportional swings from Romney to Clinton.

 Texas suburbs are still fairly new and still show some rural characteristics (but that is coming to an end). Donald Trump is an insult to any educated person and to anyone who believes that women have an inherent right to decent treatment by men.  

Florida, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/clintons-florida-lead-continues-to-grow.html

10/12-10/13, 985 LV, MOE=3.1%

Clinton - 46 (was 45 two weeks ago)
Trump - 42 (43)
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1
Undecided - 6

HEAD-TO-HEAD: Clinton - 49, Trump - 44

SENATE: Rubio - 44, Murphy - 38

Montana, Mason-Dixon


 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #43 on: October 18, 2016, 12:09:09 AM »
« Edited: October 18, 2016, 12:31:39 AM by pbrower2a »

I have been slow to update my map because of a death in the family. Please understand.

ARIZONA

http://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/latest-poll-shows-arizona-is-officially-a-battleground-state
https://www.scribd.com/document/327920049/HG-Survey-Toplines-10-14

Clinton 39
Trump 37
Johnson 8
Stein 3
Someone else 5
Undecided 7
Refused 3

Maricopa County
Clinton +5 (Romney +10)

Pima County
Clinton +24 (Obama +7)

Still comes off as a tie.

California, where Presidential elections are about as exciting as those in Belarus:

October 13-15 (Last poll, September 27-28)

Hillary Clinton: 56% (-3)
Donald Trump: 30% (-3)
Gary Johnson: 4% (+1)
Jill Stein: 2%
Undecided: 7% (+4)


http://abc7.com/politics/prop-56-raising-cigarette-tax-favored-to-pass-surveyusa-poll-shows/1559346/  

Idaho, Dan Jones. This is an old poll, so it is before the disclosure of the so-called locker-room talk and behavior of Donald Trump.

Trump 40
Clinton 30
Johnson 10
Stein 3

McMullin was not listed as an option!

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm not sure that an endorsement by the LDS hierarchy can pare off 10% of the Idaho vote and throw the state's few electoral votes to someone other than Donald Trump... offend Mormon values and lose Mormon votes. See my comments below on Utah. Because Donald Trump is at 40% and up 10 I will charitably put this poll as a Trump lead of the lowest intensity. It's charitable because I usually treat leads with less than 40% as a tie.  

Louisiana, JMC Polling, whatever that is.

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1277-poll-clinton-gaining-on-trump-in-idaho

http://winwithjmc.com/archives/7488
Trump's down from 10 in September, 15 in July.

Trump 45
Clinton 38
Johnson 4
Stein 1
Undecided 12

...Maybe Hillary Clinton is not as polarizing a political figure in the South as Barack Obama was.

New Mexico, Zia Poll (whatever that is):

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 36%
Johnson - 12%


Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20161017_NM.pdf

Gary Johnson had some chance of spoiling the chance of Hillary Clinton to win New Mexico.  That apparently is not going to happen.

Utah, Rasmussen:

Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton: 28%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%

http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/

...In view of Donald Trump acting contrary to just about every Mormon value values that non-Mormons are wise to practice in Utah and generally do. I think that McMullin has a very good chance of winning Utah. He has a chance to peel off support from Hillary Clinton and Gary Johnson  while Donald Trump loses all credibility. Republicans can expect to win every other statewide race and perhaps every Congressional seat...

Here's my prediction on Utah: McMullin will win, and people are going to discuss the Presidential election in Utah in 2016 for years as an example of how to lose despite the usually-gigantic partisan edge.   We are going to see a green or yellow color for Utah on Atlas maps, and it won't be for some racist secessionist from one of the major Parties. You see it here first even with Donald Trump with a 1% lead that I see no cause for him to hold.

Still this comes off as a tie because nobody has 40% of the polling.  
 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36



Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #44 on: October 19, 2016, 04:10:26 AM »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 05:48:30 PM by pbrower2a »

Kansas, SurveyUSA




View Profile Personal Message (Offline)
   
   
KS: KSN News/SUSA- Trump +11

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 7
Stein 2

http://ksn.com/2016/10/18/ksn-news-poll-continues-to-show-strong-support-for-trump-in-kansas/


Weak for a Republican.

Massachusetts, WBUR

Clinton 54%
Trump 28%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/10/Topline-2016-10-WBUR-MA-General-2-Pres-5-AM-1.pdf
 

Ho-hum.

Nevada, Monmouth

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_101816/


Clinton 47
Trump 40
Johnson 7

Now on the fringe of competitiveness.

New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 6%

New York, Siena
https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/three-weeks-out-clinton-boosts-lead-over-trump-to-24-points-54-30-percent-u

Clinton - 54
Trump - 30
Johnson - 5
Stein - 4

Yawn!

North Carolina, SurveyUSA

Clinton 46%
Trump 44%
Johnson 6%

Slight Clinton leads seem to becoming the norm in North Carolina.

Wisconsin, St. Norbert's College.

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 39%
Stein - 3%
Johnson - 1%

http://www.nbc26.com/news/feingold-leads-johnson-in-st-norbert-college-poll

On the borderline of a Clinton blowout.  


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36



Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #45 on: October 19, 2016, 07:15:07 PM »
« Edited: October 19, 2016, 07:33:05 PM by pbrower2a »

Another angle -- probability of winning (before Debate #3)



Chance of winning (saturation)

pct          sat
99%+       9
95-98.9     7
90-95       5
75-90       4
65-75       3
50-65       2

Utah (my guess) 55% McMullen
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #46 on: October 20, 2016, 11:13:52 AM »
« Edited: October 21, 2016, 01:16:17 PM by pbrower2a »

Illinois.

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-ormsby/poll-clinton-thumping-tru_b_12579014.html

No surprise here.

Indiana, WISH-TV

Trump 43, Clinton 37, Johnson 9

http://wishtv.com/2016/10/20/hoosier-survey-trump-leads-in-indiana-pence-helps/


Maine:

Clinton 49%
Trump 39

Clinton 42%   
Trump 36   
Johnson 9
Stein    4

ME-02
Clinton 38%
Trump 37
Johnson 11
Stein 4

Clinton 46%
Trump 39

http://mprc.me/research/1016_presidential2.pdf

Michigan. Mitchell Poll.

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/212560344-story

10/18, 1102 LV, MOE 3%

Clinton - 51
Trump - 38
Johnson - 6
Stein - 2

Poll from last week had Clinton +10

H2H: Clinton - 53, Trump - 41

Trump collapse!

Ohio, Suffolk. Its last poll showed a lead for Trump.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php

Clinton 45 (39)
Trump 45 (42)
Johnson 2
Stein 1

Tennessee, I-Citizen. Narrow lead for Trump by recent standards for Republicans,,, and before the third debate.

Trump 44%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

October 14-17

https://icitizen.com/insights/tennessee-poll-results-october-2016-election/


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55



Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #47 on: October 21, 2016, 01:21:00 PM »
« Edited: October 23, 2016, 05:45:53 PM by pbrower2a »

Florida. Almost binary, and Hillary Clinton is up 4 this late and nearly at 50%. The jaws of an alligator are closing on any chance of Donald Trump winning this election.

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf

Clinton 49
Trump 45
Johnson 3
Stein 2

Sooner Poll, Oklahoma:

Trump 60%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 4%

...Oklahoma is not O-K in its Presidential politics. It is deplorable.

This weekend I notice that the polling looks very stable where it is taken.  Most minds seem set... but I have yet to see any post-Debate polling.   


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55


Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #48 on: October 24, 2016, 12:12:23 PM »

PPP. North Carolina

HRC - 47 (+3)
Trump - 44
Gary Johnson - 3

Head to Head :-

HRC - 49 (+3)
Trump - 46

Among Early Voters

HRC - 63 (+26)
Trump - 37

Governor's race

Copper - 46 (+2)
McCrory - 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_102416.pdf

Another North Carolina poll?

Some early votes are in, and Hillary Clinton is nuking Donald Trump  63-37 while Libertarian Gary Johnson is getting less than 1/2 percent of the vote. We're talking about people who have voted. Early voters are an  unrepresentative sample, but still...


The Trump campaign is kaputt without North Carolina. 

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55



[/quote]
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #49 on: October 24, 2016, 05:19:57 PM »
« Edited: October 24, 2016, 10:17:45 PM by pbrower2a »

Arkansas, Talk Business, Hendrix College

Q: If the election for President were today, which candidate would you support?

32.5% Democrat Hillary Clinton
56% Republican Donald J. Trump
3.5% Libertarian Gary Johnson
2% Green Party candidate Jill Stein
1% Other
5% Undecided

...The Republican Senator running for re-election is up by a similar margin over his opponent.

Bill who? Arkansas must be forgetting something.

Michigan, Mitchell Polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_10-24-16.pdf

(Clinton 49% - Trump 41%- Johnson 3% - Stein 1%)

Over.

Minnesota, Mason-Dixon for the Star-Tribune.

Clinton 47%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%
McMullin 1%

Poll was conducted Oct. 20-22.

Did you really have any question?

Nevada, Las Vegas Review-Journal, the one major daily in America (Sheldon Adelson owns it) to endorse Donald Trump.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/election-2016/rj-poll-shows-clinton-pulling-away-trump-nevada

Clinton - 48
Trump - 41
Johnson - 6
Other/Unsure - 5

Nevada is now a bad bet for Donald Trump, Sheldon Adelson notwithstanding.

Nevada, Rasmussen:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/ktnvrasmussen-poll-clinton-pulls-ahead-of-trump-in-nevada-as-early-voting-starts

Clinton - 46
Trump - 42
Johnson - 5
Other/Unsure - 6

10/20-10/22, 826 LV, 3.5% MOE

Swing of 7 pts in margin from last poll in mid-Sept, which had Trump +3.

Does anyone have any residual doubt on how Nevada will vote on November 8?

Washington (state), Elway poll

Clinton 48 -- Trump 31.



 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55



Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.148 seconds with 14 queries.