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Author Topic: Home-stretch polling  (Read 26549 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #50 on: October 07, 2016, 11:10:15 am »

So what state polls would I most like to see?

Aside from the obvious ties (Arizona and Georgia) and nail-biter (Ohio)

1. Minnesota. We get few polls.

2. Iowa. Has this state gone from a Trump gain to a Clinton hold?
3. Missouri. Let's get definitive.
4. Utah. Obama would have beaten Trump here, as his behavior is closer to Mormon ideals. Utah has been quirky.
5. Mississippi. Trump is likely to win here, but that Mississippi is closer than it has been since 1980 suggests that racial polarization may be fading. This could bring huge improvements in the state's political climate into one in which people vote out the corrupt and incompetent pols even if that means voting for the other Party and against racial identity.  
6. Wisconsin. There's room for another poll by the state's definitive pollster. If a Trump collapse is underway, then Wisconsin will not be close.
7. Kansas. Like Utah, its quirky.
8. NE-02. It's only one electoral vote, but it's one of the more interesting ones.  

  
« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 09:40:55 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
rafta_rafta
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« Reply #51 on: October 07, 2016, 05:59:55 pm »

Are there any polls to be released before the debate which can help guage the outcome of the weekend news cycle?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #52 on: October 08, 2016, 10:22:55 am »

Are there any polls to be released before the debate which can help guage the outcome of the weekend news cycle?

This is from an internal poll from the Senate campaign of Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska). She has a huge lead in the Senate race, but in the Presidential race....


http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/07/murkowski-polling-data-shows-clinton-3-points-alaska/
37%-Trump
34%-Clinton
10%-Johnson
2%-Stein

+/-4% MoE
Conducted October 5-6.

Because the lead is with less than 40%  I must consider it a tie. A Republican should be leading by a double-digit margin in Alaska in a near-even nationwide contest. This is before the exposure of some sordid behavior that I am loath to express. Neither will I predict the result of the exposure of this behavior because it is so extreme and has such potential for political ruin.

...all I can say is that Donald Trump is a horrible example for anyone to emulate in his sexuality. Bill Clinton at least seems to have gotten some consent for what he did.

I can say this: if Donald Trump should be elected President, then I fully regret that Barack Obama was re-elected and my participation in the Obama campaign. I would far prefer a second term of Mitt Romney to a first term of Donald Trump.    

.......

Partly before, and partly after the  sordid tale:

Maine, People's Resource Center



CD-02 Clinton 44.4, Trump 45.0

  

This was from before the release of news of the crotch-grabbing episodes and before the second debate. Things could have gotten worse for Donald Trump, as if he needs any bad news from Virginia.  

Virginia, Roanoke

Clinton 45 (+9)
Trump 36
Johnson 7
McMullin 1
Stein 1

H2H
Clinton 51 (+13)
Trump 38

Conducted 10/2-6

http://www.roanoke.edu/about/news/rc_poll_oct_2016_politics


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 337
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 31

« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 07:14:47 am by pbrower2a »Logged
IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #53 on: October 08, 2016, 03:46:33 pm »

Quote
Obama would have beaten Trump here, as his behavior is closer to Mormon ideals

AHAHAHAHAHAHA. No.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #54 on: October 08, 2016, 05:12:39 pm »

Quote
Obama would have beaten Trump here, as his behavior is closer to Mormon ideals

AHAHAHAHAHAHA. No.

Mormons are very conservative about S-E-X. Maybe you missed the news about some of The Donald's unselective physicality (so long as the female isn't a 'fat pig'). But that news came after I made that post, anyway. After that disclosure I am ready to double down on a moot hypothetical.  
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 09:38:18 am by pbrower2a »Logged
ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #55 on: October 11, 2016, 10:05:09 am »

you mean mormon ideals like multiple wives? i figure they are married at the same time and don't file divorces cause of failes boob surgrery.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #56 on: October 11, 2016, 10:19:57 am »

you mean mormon ideals like multiple wives? i figure they are married at the same time and don't file divorces cause of failes boob surgrery.

Mormons have accepted monogamy for over a century except for some offshoot cults like the "Fundamentalist Latter-Day Saints".

Mainstream Mormons are conservatives in part because they get liberal results with conservative government. Maybe that is because they don't have to spend so much money on medical costs related to alcoholism and cancerweed use in Utah. If you don't smoke, Utah may be the best bargain for taxes and government spending. The state spends its tax revenues on roads, schools, and parks .  

Mormons may hold Bill Clinton in contempt for his sex life, but Hillary Clinton has at the least proved loyal to a very flawed husband. Donald Trump is about as far from being a model of Mormon family life as there could be short of serial-murderer and rapist Ted Bundy, the latter probably the most hated man in Utah history.


« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 01:23:18 am by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #57 on: October 12, 2016, 01:30:24 am »

...............................
Michigan, Glengarriff, Detroit News:

Clinton:42.2%
Trump: 30.6%

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/12/presidential-poll-michigan/91964392/

Not usable despite the huge margin: too many undecided.

Missouri, Monmouth:

Trump 46
Clinton 41
Johnson 5
Stein 2

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_101216/

Nevada, PPP:
Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump by an identical 4 point margin to Cortez Masto’s lead, at 47/43. This is the first time we’ve found Clinton and Cortez Masto  (US Senate seat open due to the retirement of Senator Harry Reid) polling on par with each other in our Nevada tracking.

New Hampshire, PPP (for a gun-control group)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/nevada-republicans-abandon-heck-for-abandoning-trump.html

https://twitter.com/jdistaso/status/786336536300232704

Not sure there's actually a link to the full poll, but this was conducted on behalf of Americans for Responsible Solutions (gun advocacy group):

Clinton - 48%
Trump - 37%

This one follows the report of crotch-grabbing by Donald Trump. It's Utah, typically offering six of the easiest electoral votes for a Republican nominee for President.

Clinton 26
Trump 26
McMullin 22
Johnson 14

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664606/Poll-Trump-falls-into-tie-with-Clinton-among-Utah-voters.html?pg=all

I don't know this pollster,   but it is consistent with earlier polls that have shown Donald Trump close to being tied with Hillary Clinton with neither breaking 45% of the popular vote.

Donald Trump can probably kiss Arizona good-bye.


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 36

« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 10:38:28 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #58 on: October 12, 2016, 05:56:56 pm »

Wisconsin, Marquette Law School. This is one of the most interesting polls, as it shows how a news story can wipe out a campaign or show the collapse of that campaign, even day to day. This can show how a campaign so fails due to the turpitude of the nominee, as if in a scandal of bribery or embezzlement.

Nobody intended to show this, but someone saw this happening and chose to give a four-day chronicle in the form of polls.   What this very good pollster did was brilliant; it leaves someone like me the material for analysis.

I am guessing that the route for going from one side to another, between Candidate A to Candidate B, goes as follows:

Candidate A >> undecided >> Candidate B   

Live Stream: https://law-media.marquette.edu/Mediasite/Play/d4bac28d2066460da7aef4d19adcb0381d.

Clinton 44 (41 last time)
Trump  37 (38)
Johnson 9 (11)
Stein 3 (2)

Party ID (w/leaners): D-47, R-44

878 LV, 10/6-10/9: Half last Thu, half Fri-Sun, all before Sun debate

DAY BY DAY BREAKDOWN (much larger MOE):

THU: Trump 41, Clinton 40 (T+1)
FRI: Clinton 44, Trump 38 (C+6)
SAT+SUN: Clinton 49, Trump 30 (C+19)

SENATE: Feingold 46, Johnson 44
.......................

Among evangelical likely voters in WI:

Thursday: Trump 64%, Clinton 24%
Friday: Trump 55%, Clinton 32%
Sat+Sun: Trump 47%, Clinton 31%

Among white LVs without college degrees in WI:

Thu: Trump 48%, Clinton 33%
Fri: Trump 41%, Clinton 38%
Sat+Sun: Clinton 42%, Trump 35%

Fact #1: Wisconsin was close all summer until the disclosure of the crotch-grabbing.
Fact #2: The exposure of the story had swift effect, probably because it involved something with S-E-X-U-A-L overtones.  
Fact #3: Although it might not have had much of an effect on people predisposed to vote Democratic it hit others.
Fact #4: Donald Trump still leads among Christian evangelicals, but his likely vote among them has gone from 64% to 47%.
Fact #5: I have seen scandals erupt, and I have never seen them undone. Primary campaigns collapse. Nominees find their chances of winning drop off completely.
Fact #6: Voters have shown themselves particularly willing to abandon a nominee over sex, bribery, or embezzlement. They may return to the cause that they recently supported -- but only in a different politician who did nothing to betray trust. Someone offering hat Donald trump offered throughout most of 2016 will be challenging for the Presidency as early as 2020. Liberals beware: this person will likely have more control of his libido.

I see no recovery for Donald Trump, who cannot undo the damage from the exposure of his sordid sex life. Having to choose between the Saturday-Sunday polling and the polling for either Thursday or Friday or some composite thereof, I go with Saturday/Sunday. The political equivalent of a train-wreck cannot be undone in a month. The 19% lead looks like the reality for now. I'm going with that.  Newer data is better, and Marquette Law School is a very good  pollster. The 'inconsistency' cannot represent different samples or a change in polling techniques; it reflects that Wisconsin voters turned sharply against Donald Trump  very fast in Wisconsin for something that he cannot dodge, undo, or trivialize.

A vehicle collision can turn a $100K car into a piece of scrap metal in seconds. Putting it back together requires the wrecked object to be reprocessed through a forge capable of melting the metal from a Mercedes-Benz into metal that might become a Dodge Neon.

Just look at the collapse in support among 'evangelical' voters.  Donald Trump has betrayed them, and I see little chance of him winning the once-high levels of support among that he had on Thursday.

But the level of support for Hillary Clinton still falls just short of 50%.  



Wisconsin with Clinton up 19 is consistent with Clinton up 10 in Ohio in another poll.  

Wisconsin went 62-37 in 1964; it has rarely been a Democratic run away. Obama did win it by 16% in 2008, which is about in this range.  


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 338
Donald Trump (R)  138
(in white) ties -- 36


« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 10:36:01 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #59 on: October 13, 2016, 06:49:09 am »

Pennsylvania: Bloomberg/Selzer.

Img


Hillary Clinton went over 51% in Pennsylvania, moving her into the 'solid' category in Pennsylvania.

An earlier Selzer poll (could have been obsolete data?) in Iowa fits the pattern that one would now expect in a much-more rural state, and I accept it because the Pennsylvania demographics what Selzer's Iowa poll shows. Hillary Clinton does quite well in Philadelphia suburbs, but badly in rural areas and among people with less than a college degree. But note the results for suburban Philadelphia. Old suburbs are legitimately urban now in their population. The relatively-new suburbs of Indianapolis, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, and Atlanta still have some rural characteristics.  Whatever was rural (low density, infrastructure still low in maintenance, and mostly home-owners) about comparatively new suburbs is no longer so in greater Philadelphia (or Boston, New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, St. Louis, Kansas City, Denver, Seattle, and San Francisco).

Florida. Florida Atlantic University

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/224434-hillary-clinton-6-point-lead-donald-trump-new-florida-poll
http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/download.aspx?id=7274
Clinton 49 (41)
Trump 43 (43)
Undecided 7

Big gain for Hillary Clinton.

Michigan, Mitchell Polling

Post-second debate:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_10-12-16_A.pdf

Clinton 47
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

10/11, 1429 LV

"In the last two FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell Polls, Clinton’s lead was only 5%. "

Suffolk University

Clinton 45
Trump 43
Johnson 5
Undecided 5

5 point swing to Clinton since early September.


https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/786596363949572096

Georgia:

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/13/new-poll-donald-trump-johnny-isakson-maintain-strong-leads-in-georgia/
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_KEK8-LWmzhOVRSQXFzaGI1Si1sUDBvN0xpeVFhZzRTQTRR/view

Conducted Monday to Tuesday October 11-12.

Trump 48 (47)
Clinton 42 (43)
Johnson 4 (6)
Undecided 6 (3)

White
Trump 68
Clinton 23

Black
Trump 12
Clinton 78

...No way is Donald Trump going to get 12% of the large African-American vote in Georgia. Suspect and not to be used.

 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36


« Last Edit: October 13, 2016, 10:50:12 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #60 on: October 13, 2016, 11:07:38 pm »

Texas. TEGNA/SurveyUSA, reported on WFAA-TV (ABC-8, Dallas/Fort Worth)

Img


Texas is tricky to poll. Hillary Clinton can win this state, but only if she wins over 400 electoral votes. 4% is the margin of error in most states, probably within the margin of error for one of the trickiest states to poll.  Texas will be most of the low-400s in electoral votes for Hillary Clinton should she win this state.  

Texas has many well-educated white suburbanites who went strongly for McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012. It also has relatively-conservative Hispanics (largely Mexican-Americans) who so voted in 2008 and 2012. No state has so many people who can go from Romney (a good match for educated white people) to Trump as Texas in absolute numbers... and hardly a state has such a proportion of voters who can go from Romney to Trump. Texas will have the largest absolute swing from Romney to Clinton and one of the largest proportional swings from Romney to Clinton.

 Texas suburbs are still fairly new and still show some rural characteristics (but that is coming to an end). Donald Trump is an insult to any educated person and to anyone who believes that women have an inherent right to decent treatment by men.  

Florida, PPP:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/10/clintons-florida-lead-continues-to-grow.html

10/12-10/13, 985 LV, MOE=3.1%

Clinton - 46 (was 45 two weeks ago)
Trump - 42 (43)
Johnson - 5
Stein - 1
Undecided - 6

HEAD-TO-HEAD: Clinton - 49, Trump - 44

SENATE: Rubio - 44, Murphy - 38

Montana, Mason-Dixon

Img

 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36


« Last Edit: October 15, 2016, 09:49:56 am by pbrower2a »Logged
pbrower2a
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« Reply #61 on: October 18, 2016, 12:09:09 am »

I have been slow to update my map because of a death in the family. Please understand.

ARIZONA

http://www.azhighground.com/blog/post/latest-poll-shows-arizona-is-officially-a-battleground-state
https://www.scribd.com/document/327920049/HG-Survey-Toplines-10-14

Clinton 39
Trump 37
Johnson 8
Stein 3
Someone else 5
Undecided 7
Refused 3

Maricopa County
Clinton +5 (Romney +10)

Pima County
Clinton +24 (Obama +7)

Still comes off as a tie.

California, where Presidential elections are about as exciting as those in Belarus:

October 13-15 (Last poll, September 27-28)

Hillary Clinton: 56% (-3)
Donald Trump: 30% (-3)
Gary Johnson: 4% (+1)
Jill Stein: 2%
Undecided: 7% (+4)


http://abc7.com/politics/prop-56-raising-cigarette-tax-favored-to-pass-surveyusa-poll-shows/1559346/  

Idaho, Dan Jones. This is an old poll, so it is before the disclosure of the so-called locker-room talk and behavior of Donald Trump.

Trump 40
Clinton 30
Johnson 10
Stein 3

McMullin was not listed as an option!

Quote
Donald Trump holds a 10-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton in Idaho, a just-completed Idaho Politics Weekly poll shows.

The survey was wrapped up BEFORE the bombshell Trump sexist tape had time to sink in for Idaho voters.

Undoubtedly that tape and the second presidential debate attacks by Trump (and a bit less by Clinton) would have an affect on the presidential race.

IPW pollster Dan Jones & Associates also finds that even though Idaho is voting for Trump, more Idahoans believe Clinton will ultimately win the presidency than those who say Trump will be victorious.

I'm not sure that an endorsement by the LDS hierarchy can pare off 10% of the Idaho vote and throw the state's few electoral votes to someone other than Donald Trump... offend Mormon values and lose Mormon votes. See my comments below on Utah. Because Donald Trump is at 40% and up 10 I will charitably put this poll as a Trump lead of the lowest intensity. It's charitable because I usually treat leads with less than 40% as a tie.  

Louisiana, JMC Polling, whatever that is.

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1277-poll-clinton-gaining-on-trump-in-idaho

http://winwithjmc.com/archives/7488
Trump's down from 10 in September, 15 in July.

Trump 45
Clinton 38
Johnson 4
Stein 1
Undecided 12

...Maybe Hillary Clinton is not as polarizing a political figure in the South as Barack Obama was.

New Mexico, Zia Poll (whatever that is):

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 36%
Johnson - 12%


Quote
The state-wide survey, conducted on October 11 by ZiaPoll, a New Mexico based non-partisan public opinion pollster, showed a big jump for the Clinton campaign. After Sunday’s debate and last week’s release of audio tapes where Trump can be heard making crude and sexual remarks about women, and in spite of the recent release by Wikileaks from Clinton’s hacked email server, Clinton now holds a 10 percent lead over Trump.

When comparing the last NM statewide poll conducted by ZiaPoll on September 24 to the new post-debate results, Clinton increased her lead from 41.8 percent to 46.2 percent while Donald Trump remained at 36 percent. Former New Mexico Governor and Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson slipped 4.2 percent and is now polling at 11.8 percent. Undecided votes made up 4.4 percent and 1.7 percent of voters said they would vote for Jill Stein. The majority of Clinton’s gains came at the expense of Gary Johnson - perhaps voters who jumped from Clinton early in the season, but who now feel that their vote for Johnson could help put Trump in office.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20161017_NM.pdf

Gary Johnson had some chance of spoiling the chance of Hillary Clinton to win New Mexico.  That apparently is not going to happen.

Utah, Rasmussen:

Trump 30%, McMullin 29%, Clinton: 28%, Johnson 5%, Stein 1%

http://heatst.com/world/exclusive-evan-mcmullin-utah-poll-independent-conservative-ties-trump/

...In view of Donald Trump acting contrary to just about every Mormon value values that non-Mormons are wise to practice in Utah and generally do. I think that McMullin has a very good chance of winning Utah. He has a chance to peel off support from Hillary Clinton and Gary Johnson  while Donald Trump loses all credibility. Republicans can expect to win every other statewide race and perhaps every Congressional seat...

Here's my prediction on Utah: McMullin will win, and people are going to discuss the Presidential election in Utah in 2016 for years as an example of how to lose despite the usually-gigantic partisan edge.   We are going to see a green or yellow color for Utah on Atlas maps, and it won't be for some racist secessionist from one of the major Parties. You see it here first even with Donald Trump with a 1% lead that I see no cause for him to hold.

Still this comes off as a tie because nobody has 40% of the polling.  
 


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36



« Last Edit: October 18, 2016, 12:31:39 am by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #62 on: October 19, 2016, 04:10:26 am »

Kansas, SurveyUSA




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KS: KSN News/SUSA- Trump +11

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 7
Stein 2

http://ksn.com/2016/10/18/ksn-news-poll-continues-to-show-strong-support-for-trump-in-kansas/


Weak for a Republican.

Massachusetts, WBUR

Clinton 54%
Trump 28%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/10/Topline-2016-10-WBUR-MA-General-2-Pres-5-AM-1.pdf
 

Ho-hum.

Nevada, Monmouth

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_101816/


Clinton 47
Trump 40
Johnson 7

Now on the fringe of competitiveness.

New Jersey, Fairleigh-Dickinson

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 6%

New York, Siena
https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/three-weeks-out-clinton-boosts-lead-over-trump-to-24-points-54-30-percent-u

Clinton - 54
Trump - 30
Johnson - 5
Stein - 4

Yawn!

North Carolina, SurveyUSA

Clinton 46%
Trump 44%
Johnson 6%

Slight Clinton leads seem to becoming the norm in North Carolina.

Wisconsin, St. Norbert's College.

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 39%
Stein - 3%
Johnson - 1%

http://www.nbc26.com/news/feingold-leads-johnson-in-st-norbert-college-poll

On the borderline of a Clinton blowout.  


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Hillary Clinton (D) 326
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 36



« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 05:48:30 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #63 on: October 19, 2016, 07:15:07 pm »

Another angle -- probability of winning (before Debate #3)



Chance of winning (saturation)

pct          sat
99%+       9
95-98.9     7
90-95       5
75-90       4
65-75       3
50-65       2

Utah (my guess) 55% McMullen
« Last Edit: October 19, 2016, 07:33:05 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #64 on: October 20, 2016, 11:13:52 am »

Illinois.

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 32%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-ormsby/poll-clinton-thumping-tru_b_12579014.html

No surprise here.

Indiana, WISH-TV

Trump 43, Clinton 37, Johnson 9

http://wishtv.com/2016/10/20/hoosier-survey-trump-leads-in-indiana-pence-helps/


Maine:

Clinton 49%
Trump 39

Clinton 42%   
Trump 36   
Johnson 9
Stein    4

ME-02
Clinton 38%
Trump 37
Johnson 11
Stein 4

Clinton 46%
Trump 39

http://mprc.me/research/1016_presidential2.pdf

Michigan. Mitchell Poll.

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/212560344-story

10/18, 1102 LV, MOE 3%

Clinton - 51
Trump - 38
Johnson - 6
Stein - 2

Poll from last week had Clinton +10

H2H: Clinton - 53, Trump - 41

Trump collapse!

Ohio, Suffolk. Its last poll showed a lead for Trump.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php

Clinton 45 (39)
Trump 45 (42)
Johnson 2
Stein 1

Tennessee, I-Citizen. Narrow lead for Trump by recent standards for Republicans,,, and before the third debate.

Trump 44%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

October 14-17

https://icitizen.com/insights/tennessee-poll-results-october-2016-election/


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55



« Last Edit: October 21, 2016, 01:16:17 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #65 on: October 21, 2016, 01:21:00 pm »

Florida. Almost binary, and Hillary Clinton is up 4 this late and nearly at 50%. The jaws of an alligator are closing on any chance of Donald Trump winning this election.

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf

Clinton 49
Trump 45
Johnson 3
Stein 2

Sooner Poll, Oklahoma:

Trump 60%
Clinton 30%
Johnson 4%

...Oklahoma is not O-K in its Presidential politics. It is deplorable.

This weekend I notice that the polling looks very stable where it is taken.  Most minds seem set... but I have yet to see any post-Debate polling.   


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55


« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 05:45:53 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #66 on: October 24, 2016, 12:12:23 pm »

PPP. North Carolina

HRC - 47 (+3)
Trump - 44
Gary Johnson - 3

Head to Head :-

HRC - 49 (+3)
Trump - 46

Among Early Voters

HRC - 63 (+26)
Trump - 37

Governor's race

Copper - 46 (+2)
McCrory - 44

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_NC_102416.pdf

Another North Carolina poll?

Some early votes are in, and Hillary Clinton is nuking Donald Trump  63-37 while Libertarian Gary Johnson is getting less than 1/2 percent of the vote. We're talking about people who have voted. Early voters are an  unrepresentative sample, but still...


The Trump campaign is kaputt without North Carolina. 

 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 307
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55



[/quote]
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« Reply #67 on: October 24, 2016, 05:19:57 pm »

Arkansas, Talk Business, Hendrix College

Q: If the election for President were today, which candidate would you support?

32.5% Democrat Hillary Clinton
56% Republican Donald J. Trump
3.5% Libertarian Gary Johnson
2% Green Party candidate Jill Stein
1% Other
5% Undecided

...The Republican Senator running for re-election is up by a similar margin over his opponent.

Bill who? Arkansas must be forgetting something.

Michigan, Mitchell Polling.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/FOX_2_Detroit-Mitchell_Poll_of_MI_Press_Clinton_v_Trump_10-24-16.pdf

(Clinton 49% - Trump 41%- Johnson 3% - Stein 1%)

Over.

Minnesota, Mason-Dixon for the Star-Tribune.

Clinton 47%
Trump 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%
McMullin 1%

Poll was conducted Oct. 20-22.

Did you really have any question?

Nevada, Las Vegas Review-Journal, the one major daily in America (Sheldon Adelson owns it) to endorse Donald Trump.

http://www.reviewjournal.com/politics/election-2016/rj-poll-shows-clinton-pulling-away-trump-nevada

Clinton - 48
Trump - 41
Johnson - 6
Other/Unsure - 5

Nevada is now a bad bet for Donald Trump, Sheldon Adelson notwithstanding.

Nevada, Rasmussen:

http://www.ktnv.com/news/political/ktnvrasmussen-poll-clinton-pulls-ahead-of-trump-in-nevada-as-early-voting-starts

Clinton - 46
Trump - 42
Johnson - 5
Other/Unsure - 6

10/20-10/22, 826 LV, 3.5% MOE

Swing of 7 pts in margin from last poll in mid-Sept, which had Trump +3.

Does anyone have any residual doubt on how Nevada will vote on November 8?

Washington (state), Elway poll

Clinton 48 -- Trump 31.



 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  150
(in white) ties -- 55



« Last Edit: October 24, 2016, 10:17:45 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
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« Reply #68 on: October 25, 2016, 12:47:35 am »

Now a poll for a state from which I didn't expect to see a poll:

South Dakota, Mason-Dixon for KELO-TV (Sioux Falls):

Trump 44, Clinton 37.

Applying the rules as rigidly as I usually do, South Dakota ends up in a pale blue shade.

Trump collapse!

Wyoming, University thereof:

Trump 58%
Clinton 20%
Johnson 9%
Stein 2%

Arizona, Monmouth:

Trump - 46%
Clinton - 45%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 1%

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 317
Donald Trump (R)  161
(in white) ties -- 44



« Last Edit: October 25, 2016, 09:59:49 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
NOVA Green
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« Reply #69 on: October 29, 2016, 07:29:59 pm »

Hey--- just checking in to say hello, since you haven't posted any updates for awhile.

Hoping all is well with you and your family, and missing your updated maps. Smiley
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« Reply #70 on: October 30, 2016, 12:41:00 pm »

He'll be back, when Dems have a good news (the recent news from NC were really good for Hillary though)

Back to this polling thread. Leads that I saw for Donald Trump made me physically ill. Yes, I have a bias -- against someone who advocates political violence, who promotes breaking up families in the name of mass deportation, who vilifies whole ethnic and religious  groups. I have enough personal problems as it is, and hearing someone attack the core decencies of the American experiment in democracy could push me over the edge.

But if I am to show a comeback by Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump going into the tank, I must show Trump charging, if only for a week. And by charging I do not mean putting 'surf 'n' turf on a charge card.
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« Reply #71 on: October 30, 2016, 05:05:42 pm »

Alaska, Craciun Research. This was apparently Lisa Murkowski's internal pollster in 2014.

Oct. 21-26

Clinton 47
Trump 43
Johnson 7
Stein 3

http://www.craciunresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Press-Release_Presidential-Election-2016_Alaska-Survey_Craciun-Research-_102916.pdf

Florida, two polls, and they cancel as a tie (PPP and Siena); one (Selzer for Bloomberg) is a tie.

 
Minnesota, KSTP-TV (ABC-5, Twin Cities):

Clinton 49
Trump 39
Johnson 5
Stein 2

MOE 3.9%

Same poll last month showed Clinton+7 (46-39).

North Carolina (NBC)

FL: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (4-way)
Tied at 46 (2-way)

NC: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 (4-way)
Clinton 50, Trump 44 (2-way)

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246

Utah, Dan Jones, Salt Lake Tribune.

Trump 32%
McMullin 30%
Clinton 24%
Write-in/Don't Know 8%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

Favorability ratings:

Trump: 29-70
Clinton: 24-75

Also interesting, 68% say Trump's videos do not effect their vote, 8% say it makes them more likely to vote for Clinton, 2% for Johnson, 0% for Trump and 18% for McMullin.

Poll has not been released yet, not sure when it will.

Conducted October 20-27.

Another near-tie.


 
Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump (R):





Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9%        --  saturation 7
50-54.9%        --  saturation 6
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9%  -- saturation 2

Reduce the category by 1 if the lead is with less than 45%.

Hillary Clinton (D) 291
Donald Trump (R)  161
(in white) ties -- 70




« Last Edit: October 30, 2016, 05:25:22 pm by pbrower2a »Logged
Ljube
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« Reply #72 on: November 01, 2016, 12:33:48 pm »

Why is Georgia tied?
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« Reply #73 on: November 01, 2016, 05:48:58 pm »

Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Colorado need to be as tossup. Move Georgia back into likely Republican, Texas into solid Republican as well, and Florida into lean Republican.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #74 on: November 01, 2016, 05:55:44 pm »

Good to see you back man.... wishing the best for you and your family. Smiley
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