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Author Topic: Home-stretch polling  (Read 26592 times)
J. J.
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« on: November 02, 2016, 05:06:38 pm »

I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 



I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.

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J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2016, 05:57:00 pm »

If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?

Until the next realignment.  I was talking about 1932 in 1980. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2016, 06:11:02 pm »

Ah, King, here is my map.

I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 



I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269


Where do you get the idea that I have Virginia even as a tossup?  I would be more stunned at Trump winning PA or MN than I would with him winning VA. 
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J. J.
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2016, 04:10:13 am »

If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

How many more elections until you stop jacking off to Reagan's 1980 win?

Until the next realignment.  I was talking about 1932 in 1980. 

lol Virginia is a safe D state and the First Lady of Arkansas is losing it by 20 points. there's been a realignment.

Can you say "realignment?"  Good, I knew you could. 
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