Home-stretch polling (user search)
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Author Topic: Home-stretch polling  (Read 47485 times)
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,644
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« on: September 08, 2016, 05:00:50 PM »

Trump is within 2 pts 51/49 election would be a 272-266 race with CO, not OH as the bellweather
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,644
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2016, 05:37:43 PM »

I am not using the map for percentages.  The lighter shades are my tossups, showing a guess of how each will go. 



I am assuming a slight trend to Trump, and looked as past elections.  I have it at:

Clinton:  269
Trump:  269

I was not trying to come out with a tie.

A stronger trend to Trump and he wins; the tide shifts slightly to Clinton, she wins.  A tidal wave and well ....  If there is a 1980 style shift, it will go for Trump.

I would also be watching to see what the CD's in Maine and Nebraska do.  It may come down to one of those.




Clinton will lose VA before she loses NH.  NH is a blue state as well as NV

Clinton 272
Trump 266
not including VA of course
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