Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 17, 2019, 05:04:16 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado  (Read 1413 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,369
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 08, 2016, 08:22:53 am »

New Poll: Colorado President by Magellan Strategies on 2016-08-31

Summary: D: 41%, R: 36%, I: 16%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,369
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2016, 08:23:31 am »

Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,052


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2016, 08:26:37 am »

Favorables:

Clinton 40/56 (-16)
Trump 34/62 (-28)

This pollster has a C rating and R+0.6 bias, according to 538.
Logged

Originally a Rockefeller Republican, then a long-time independent.  Converted to the Democrats in October 2018 out of revulsion at what the Republican party has become.
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,933
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2016, 09:58:23 am »

So, it looks like Colorado will be about D+2?  If you assume that we have a 2012-like race and that between this R poll and non-partisan poll, Colorado is like 11+5+2/3 = 6.3...and then when you factor in that Democrats over perform by about 1.5% there, you get about a +7 or +8. It makes since. Voter party id is now +.5%D instead of +.5%R in 12 or +1R% or 08. I'm guessing it would have been R+1 with a Non-Trump running and about D+2 or 3 with a non-Hillary running and about this if both candidates were reasonable fits.
Logged

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2016, 10:04:12 am »

So, it looks like Colorado will be about D+2?  If you assume that we have a 2012-like race and that between this R poll and non-partisan poll, Colorado is like 11+5+2/3 = 6.3...and then when you factor in that Democrats over perform by about 1.5% there, you get about a +7 or +8. It makes since. Voter party id is now +.5%D instead of +.5%R in 12 or +1R% or 08. I'm guessing it would have been R+1 with a Non-Trump running and about D+2 or 3 with a non-Hillary running and about this if both candidates were reasonable fits.
This is an advanced unskewing technology! Cheesy
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2016, 10:06:12 am »

Hmmm... Magellan is a Republican pollster and I believe this is client work?  I'm surprised they would release this.  Are they trying to tell Trump to stop wasting money in CO?

You have to stop to pretend that R-establishment wants Trump to win. I mean... Really!
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,164
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2016, 10:42:55 am »

Considering this pollster has a Republican tilt, Colorado is probably out of reach for Trump.
Logged

Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,933
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2016, 10:53:45 am »

Considering this pollster has a Republican tilt, Colorado is probably out of reach for Trump.
Like I said, he could still win it, but if he does, the election will have already been called for him.
Logged

Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,708
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2016, 12:53:58 pm »

Magellan is a pretty bad pollster, but whatever.
Logged
Maxwell
mah519
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28,732
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -6.96

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2016, 12:56:50 pm »

Trump ain't winnin Colorado.
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,933
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2016, 01:02:00 pm »

What will be really interesting in Colorado is what will happen with 69,70, and 100.

69 is a universal Medicare bill. It's a lightning rod. No way it passes. Might actually be good to use in 2018 or 2020 if Trump wins and isn't popular. Could be good in 2022 during a six-year itch.

70- Minimum wage. Its up 15 points. Takes MW to $12 an hour by 2020. Its on the edge of reasonable.

100- Assisted suicide. There's no polling on this one. I imagine if people are OK with pot and abortion, they are OK with this.
Logged

Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
Spark498
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,134
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.29, S: 2.17

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2016, 02:10:29 pm »

Trump competitive in CO
Logged

2020 President Endorsement: Undecided
GeorgiaModerate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,052


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2016, 03:08:03 pm »

Trump competitive in CO

When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to.  The RCP average has him down 9.7.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls
Logged

Originally a Rockefeller Republican, then a long-time independent.  Converted to the Democrats in October 2018 out of revulsion at what the Republican party has become.
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,933
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2016, 03:38:47 pm »

Trump competitive in CO

When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to.  The RCP average has him down 9.7.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

So it's like D+3.5 or something now according to RCP.
Logged

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2016, 03:46:20 pm »

Trump competitive in CO

When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to.  The RCP average has him down 9.7.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

So it's like D+3.5 or something now according to RCP.
Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious Cry
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,474
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2016, 03:48:23 pm »

This is a "C" rated pollster with no real history this election season, so would definitely take with a giant Tablespoon of salt and consider more as an internal poll than anything else.
Logged

Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2016, 04:44:58 pm »

Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious Cry

Nate Silver agrees
Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too

Quote
My position is that a decline in Clinton’s national polls necessarily means that she’s declined in the states. There’s just no way around this; as we learned on Schoolhouse Rock, the United States is composed of 50 states and the District of Columbia. Perhaps it’s possible Clinton’s declined more in noncompetitive states than competitive ones — for instance, if Trump’s gains have mostly come from Republicans, widening his margins in red states but less in purple states. But that sort of conclusion is usually wishful thinking.

If anything, swing states tend to be slightly more “elastic” than the national average, meaning that if Trump gains about 5 percentage points nationally, he might gain a bit more than that in states such as New Hampshire, where there are a lot of swing voters.
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,933
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2016, 06:33:18 pm »

Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious Cry

Nate Silver agrees
Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too

Quote
My position is that a decline in Clinton’s national polls necessarily means that she’s declined in the states. There’s just no way around this; as we learned on Schoolhouse Rock, the United States is composed of 50 states and the District of Columbia. Perhaps it’s possible Clinton’s declined more in noncompetitive states than competitive ones — for instance, if Trump’s gains have mostly come from Republicans, widening his margins in red states but less in purple states. But that sort of conclusion is usually wishful thinking.

If anything, swing states tend to be slightly more “elastic” than the national average, meaning that if Trump gains about 5 percentage points nationally, he might gain a bit more than that in states such as New Hampshire, where there are a lot of swing voters.

That doesn't mean its not tightening, it just means the rust is moving to the right of where Democrats are expanding.
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines