CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado

[MT Treasurer]

New Poll: Colorado President by Magellan Strategies on 2016-08-31

Summary: D: 41%, R: 36%, I: 16%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[GeorgiaModerate]

Favorables:

Clinton 40/56 (-16)
Trump 34/62 (-28)

This pollster has a C rating and R+0.6 bias, according to 538.

[Person Man]

So, it looks like Colorado will be about D+2?  If you assume that we have a 2012-like race and that between this R poll and non-partisan poll, Colorado is like 11+5+2/3 = 6.3...and then when you factor in that Democrats over perform by about 1.5% there, you get about a +7 or +8. It makes since. Voter party id is now +.5%D instead of +.5%R in 12 or +1R% or 08. I'm guessing it would have been R+1 with a Non-Trump running and about D+2 or 3 with a non-Hillary running and about this if both candidates were reasonable fits.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

So, it looks like Colorado will be about D+2?  If you assume that we have a 2012-like race and that between this R poll and non-partisan poll, Colorado is like 11+5+2/3 = 6.3...and then when you factor in that Democrats over perform by about 1.5% there, you get about a +7 or +8. It makes since. Voter party id is now +.5%D instead of +.5%R in 12 or +1R% or 08. I'm guessing it would have been R+1 with a Non-Trump running and about D+2 or 3 with a non-Hillary running and about this if both candidates were reasonable fits.

This is an advanced unskewing technology!

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Hmmm... Magellan is a Republican pollster and I believe this is client work?  I'm surprised they would release this.  Are they trying to tell Trump to stop wasting money in CO?

You have to stop to pretend that R-establishment wants Trump to win. I mean... Really!

[Xing]

Considering this pollster has a Republican tilt, Colorado is probably out of reach for Trump.

[Person Man]

Considering this pollster has a Republican tilt, Colorado is probably out of reach for Trump.

Like I said, he could still win it, but if he does, the election will have already been called for him.

[Ebsy]

Magellan is a pretty bad pollster, but whatever.

[Maxwell]

Trump ain't winnin Colorado.

[Person Man]

What will be really interesting in Colorado is what will happen with 69,70, and 100.

69 is a universal Medicare bill. It's a lightning rod. No way it passes. Might actually be good to use in 2018 or 2020 if Trump wins and isn't popular. Could be good in 2022 during a six-year itch.

70- Minimum wage. Its up 15 points. Takes MW to $12 an hour by 2020. Its on the edge of reasonable.

100- Assisted suicide. There's no polling on this one. I imagine if people are OK with pot and abortion, they are OK with this.

[Spark]

Trump competitive in CO

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump competitive in CO

When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to.  The RCP average has him down 9.7.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

[Person Man]

Trump competitive in CO

When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to.  The RCP average has him down 9.7.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

So it's like D+3.5 or something now according to RCP.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Trump competitive in CO

When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to.  The RCP average has him down 9.7.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

So it's like D+3.5 or something now according to RCP.

Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious

[NOVA Green]

This is a "C" rated pollster with no real history this election season, so would definitely take with a giant Tablespoon of salt and consider more as an internal poll than anything else.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious

Nate Silver agrees
Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Person Man]

Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious

Nate Silver agrees
Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That doesn't mean its not tightening, it just means the rust is moving to the right of where Democrats are expanding.