CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton up 5 in Colorado

[Person Man]

So, it looks like Colorado will be about D+2?  If you assume that we have a 2012-like race and that between this R poll and non-partisan poll, Colorado is like 11+5+2/3 = 6.3...and then when you factor in that Democrats over perform by about 1.5% there, you get about a +7 or +8. It makes since. Voter party id is now +.5%D instead of +.5%R in 12 or +1R% or 08. I'm guessing it would have been R+1 with a Non-Trump running and about D+2 or 3 with a non-Hillary running and about this if both candidates were reasonable fits.

[Person Man]

Considering this pollster has a Republican tilt, Colorado is probably out of reach for Trump.

Like I said, he could still win it, but if he does, the election will have already been called for him.

[Person Man]

What will be really interesting in Colorado is what will happen with 69,70, and 100.

69 is a universal Medicare bill. It's a lightning rod. No way it passes. Might actually be good to use in 2018 or 2020 if Trump wins and isn't popular. Could be good in 2022 during a six-year itch.

70- Minimum wage. Its up 15 points. Takes MW to $12 an hour by 2020. Its on the edge of reasonable.

100- Assisted suicide. There's no polling on this one. I imagine if people are OK with pot and abortion, they are OK with this.

[Person Man]

Trump competitive in CO

When the closest poll in the last couple months has Trump down 5, this is a different definition of "competitive" then I'm used to.  The RCP average has him down 9.7.  http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/co/colorado_trump_vs_clinton-5751.html#polls

So it's like D+3.5 or something now according to RCP.

[Person Man]

Yeah, right. Because almost every poll is from the period when Clinton was up 8-10 nationally. Common, guys, you can't be serious

Nate Silver agrees
Election Update: The Swing States Are Tightening, Too

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That doesn't mean its not tightening, it just means the rust is moving to the right of where Democrats are expanding.