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| | | | |-+  FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA/NC-Quinnipiac: Tied in FL, Trump lead in OH, Clinton lead in PA/NC  (Read 3559 times)
Castro
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« on: September 08, 2016, 01:38:29 pm »

Florida
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 47%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2%

Ohio
Trump - 46%
Clinton - 45%

Trump - 41%
Clinton - 37%
Johnson - 14%
Stein - 4%

Pennsylvania
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 9%
Stein - 3%

North Carolina
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 43%

Clinton - 42%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 15%

From August 29 - September 7, Quinnipiac University surveyed:
761 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
751 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points;
775 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points;
778 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2376
« Last Edit: September 08, 2016, 01:46:27 pm by Castro »Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2016, 01:40:53 pm »

Yep, I've had an awful feeling about NC for awhile. Trump will lose it. :/
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2016, 01:41:00 pm »

The 2-way/4-way difference in Ohio is striking.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2016, 01:41:04 pm »

Awesome NC numbers, PA and FL are par for the course, OH is unfortunate. Looks like Clinton should go with the ACC route.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2016, 01:41:09 pm »

Seems in line with Clinton +3/4 nationally.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2016, 01:41:15 pm »

literally wat @ NC results.

Pennsylvania makes sense as does Florida.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2016, 01:41:23 pm »

Great results!!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2016, 01:41:38 pm »

Looks about right.

NC is more of a tossup though.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2016, 01:41:57 pm »

Awesome NC numbers, PA and FL are par for the course, OH is unfortunate. Looks like Clinton should go with the ACC route.

OH is still quite close, no reason to re-adjust strategy, especially given division in ground games.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2016, 01:43:39 pm »

If you flipped Ohio and North Carolina then they would be perfectly believable results.
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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2016, 01:44:06 pm »

Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
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« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2016, 01:44:25 pm »

Hard to imagine NC ending up to the left of OH and FL, but these numbers are fairly believable, overall.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2016, 01:44:39 pm »

The NC numbers are awful. The FL/OH/PA/IA path doesn't matter if Trump loses NC. He would also need to win WI or MI.
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Castro
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2016, 01:44:56 pm »

If you flipped Ohio and North Carolina then they would be perfectly believable results.

Given the polling situation we've seen for Blacks and College Whites, these seem perfectly believable.
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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2016, 01:45:18 pm »

Will Johnson's numbers continue to remain high?
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2016, 01:46:26 pm »

Awesome NC numbers, PA and FL are par for the course, OH is unfortunate. Looks like Clinton should go with the ACC route.

OH is still quite close, no reason to re-adjust strategy, especially given division in ground games.

Oh I totally agree, my statement was if you had to make a clear choice or an emphasis.
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dspNY
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« Reply #16 on: September 08, 2016, 01:47:33 pm »

After the rough time Hillary's had over the past two weeks, these results still mean a very likely President Hillary because it can get a lot better for her and not much worse
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #17 on: September 08, 2016, 01:49:09 pm »

The 2-way/4-way difference in Ohio is striking.

It's all within the MOE, so not particularly.
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Virginiá
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« Reply #18 on: September 08, 2016, 01:50:57 pm »

Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.
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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #19 on: September 08, 2016, 02:00:13 pm »

Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.

I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket. And also based on historical trends, before Obama in 2008, the last Democrat to win there was Carter. Clinton does not energize voters as much as Obama or Trump.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2016, 02:08:05 pm by Spark498 »Logged
Snek!
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« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2016, 02:01:34 pm »

As long as Clinton can hold Pennsylvania in the east, she should be OK as long as North Carolina and Florida is iffy at best for Trump.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #21 on: September 08, 2016, 02:04:17 pm »

Dear god these results are garbage, NC will be to the right of Florida.
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Mallow
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« Reply #22 on: September 08, 2016, 02:04:25 pm »

As long as Clinton can hold Pennsylvania in the east, she should be OK as long as North Carolina and Florida is iffy at best for Trump.

It's tough to imagine a realistic map in which Trump wins nationally, but loses PA (and VA). The only one I can think of involves the unlikely sweep of NC, IA, OH, FL, NV, and NH (with a bonus ME2 if a tie-breaker is necessary)
« Last Edit: September 08, 2016, 02:10:15 pm by Mallow »Logged
Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #23 on: September 08, 2016, 02:05:00 pm »

Clinton is not going to win NC. If Obama couldn't do it again in 2012, it's not happening.

What does his narrow loss in 2012 have to do with this? You realize the current trends in North Carolina actually favor Democrats, right? By all measure, the NC electorate will actually be slightly more favorable to Democrats this year than in 2012, due to demographic changes alone.

Just curious what exactly your justification is for your position. North Carolina is becoming more competitive, not less, and Trump is clearly not a shoe-in for that state based on the polls we have been seeing.

I agree with those statements about changing demographics. My justification for my position is that Hillary Clinton is not Obama and will not drive turn out as effectively in AA communities (Raleigh, Charlotte). Trump will gain more support among blacks than Romney did, simply because there is not an AA present on the ticket.

A) No reason to assume African American turnout will drop all that much.
B) White college voters are shifting towards Clinton, Trump already maxed out here with Romneys numbers among non-college whites
C) Ground game, ground game, ground game
4) HB2 and the general state of the NC GOP.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #24 on: September 08, 2016, 02:05:56 pm »

Quite the education gap in North Carolina…

whites w/ college degree:
Trump 42%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 16%

whites without college degree:
Trump 62%
Clinton 18%
Johnson 16%

Also, Trump is in third place among non-whites in both NC and OH….

North Carolina non-whites:
Clinton 71%
Johnson 14%
Trump 10%

Ohio non-whites:
Clinton 62%
Johnson 10%
Stein 9%
Trump 9%
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