CT/NH/VT/MA/NJ/ME/RI-Emerson

[SPQR]

The sample size for Maine-2 is pretty ridicolous.

Also,what's most striking about RI and NJ is that Trump's numbers are surprisingly high,basically what an average Republican would get there from 1992 on. But with 5% of undecideds and third parties on double figures.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nate Cohn (the NYT Upshot political guy) on Twitter after these came out:

"I couldn't advise someone to attend any Emerson College, or any university that conducts its polls without cells. -1000 US News ranks."

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/773544068743856128

[Likely Voter]

The universe of landline only robopolling is down to them and Gravis.  Even Rasmussen has added online component. I suspect this is the last election anyone uses this methodology.  But it is the cheapest way to poll and so they are clinging to it for now. 
 
Hard to say what the house effect is, but I suspect their samples are older and whiter than the actual electorate. How much older and whiter? Hard to say. 

[Figueira]

Interesting that the R trend in Maine is entirely in the second district according to this poll.

Probably junk, though.

[Tender Branson]

Someone needs to enter these into the database.

[Person Man]

Trump has about the same chance of coming within 10 in Rhode Island as he does of Clinton coming within 10 in Texas. If they both happened, the silver lining could be that "whatever it is, were against it" time is coming to a close and maybe there will be a bigger center going forward.

[Seriously?]

Anyone who believes that NJ, RI, or ME-2 will be close or in Trump column will probably end up on White People Mourning Trump. I'm taking applications for those who make ridiculous posts online expressing shock about Trump losing.

Well you have your NJ is close fools gold poll of the cycle. This always happens.

As far as RI goes, whatever. It's 4 EV. It's a data point.

[Maxwell]

no cherrypicking here - Emerson is pure garbage.

if anything looks reasonable, it's merely coincidence.

[Eraserhead]

Rhode Island, lmao.

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

Yep, I guess that's why Obama crushed it there in '08 and '12, right?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Rhode Island, lmao.

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

Yep, I guess that's why Obama crushed it there in '08 and '12, right?

It's why white men in RI went from voting Democratic by double digits every election to suddenly being tied 48-48 in RI 2008 exit polls.

[Wiz in Wis]

Can someone please enter the CT poll as well? Thanks!

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

LOL. ME-01 is not voting to the left of VT and MA.

[RINO Tom]

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

This poll is obviously a pile of shlt, but what (in your mind) is the "no surprise" reason that every Democrat before Trump "played well there"?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

This poll is obviously a pile of shlt, but what (in your mind) is the "no surprise" reason that every Democrat before Trump "played well there"?

Lot's of blue collar racists voted Democrat because they disliked the perceived corporatism and overly religious tendencies of the GOP. Now that the GOP is simply blaming minorities for everything they are "speaking their language".

[GeorgiaModerate]

RI does have one of the higher educational levels in the country, which argues against it being largely blue collar.  In 2009, 30.5% of its people had a Bachelor's degree or higher (this is in the top 15 states) and 11.7% had a more advanced degree (this is in the top 10).

[Eraserhead]

Rhode Island, lmao.

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

Yep, I guess that's why Obama crushed it there in '08 and '12, right?

It's why white men in RI went from voting Democratic by double digits every election to suddenly being tied 48-48 in RI 2008 exit polls.

Okay but that was more than countered by white women in Rhode Island going more strongly for Obama than they had for previous Democratic Presidential candidates.

Not to mention that white men nationally went for McCain by 57%-41% in 2008.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Basically if you want any more proof that Emerson is general crap with occasional luck... it's this set of polls.

[Bakersfield Uber Alles]

No way are NJ and RI that close. The rest of the polling makes some sense though

[YaBoyNY]

Rhode Island, lmao.

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

Yep, I guess that's why Obama crushed it there in '08 and '12, right?

It's why white men in RI went from voting Democratic by double digits every election to suddenly being tied 48-48 in RI 2008 exit polls.

Which means white men in Rhode Island are still 10-12 points more Democratic than average.

And there goes your argument falling apart like a house of cards.

[NOVA Green]

Wait, closer in Rhode Island than New Hampshire? How?

Washington Post/SurveyMonkey also showed RI only 2 points more Democratic than NH, LOL.

Um, maybe TNVol's onto something!  Trump significantly ahead in ME-02 and being closer in Rhode Island and New Jersey than New Hampshire!  (Tossup Rhode Island!!)

Moving Rhode Island to tossup on my prediction map - I encourage you all to do the same.

The sample size for Maine-2 is pretty ridicolous.

Also,what's most striking about RI and NJ is that Trump's numbers are surprisingly high,basically what an average Republican would get there from 1992 on. But with 5% of undecideds and third parties on double figures.

Rhode Island, lmao.

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

Yep, I guess that's why Obama crushed it there in '08 and '12, right?

It's why white men in RI went from voting Democratic by double digits every election to suddenly being tied 48-48 in RI 2008 exit polls.

Wow!!!!

I think there are some fundamental facts that aren't even really being discussed here:

1.) Bernie Sanders pulled out a huge upset against Hillary Clinton in the Dem Primaries.... it appears that Clinton is having a rough time of it with 3rd party voters that supported Bernie, but still have major issues with Clinton. This is the major reason that Hillary is so far from a traditional Democratic ceiling in one of the most Democratic States in the union with Presidential elections.

2.) Rhode Island has the highest percentage of self-identified Italian-Americans (19%) in the entire US. New Jersey is second at (18%).  People of Eastern-European ethnic descent were one of Trump's strongest demographic groups in the primaries in the North-East and Central Atlantic States, with Italian-Americans communities in particular. Although, overall Trump is getting killed with the Catholic vote nationwide, it is definitely surprising that Trump is performing so well in the most Catholic State in the Union (RI=44% Catholic).

3.) As others have noted, there is a significant Blue Collar White population in RI, and historically this is a state that used to have a strong manufacturing sector until 30+ years ago, where Trump is a breath of fresh air for a Republican Candidate regarding jobs being shipped overseas.

4.) I certainly do not believe that RI will be close come election day (Let alone NJ) but it is not unreasonable to see a significant shift towards the Reps this GE, especially when the Lion's share of undecided and 3rd Party voters would vote Democratic in a normal GE Election Year.

[NerdyBohemian]

Rhode Island is blue collar and racist. No surprise Trump plays well there.

RI will definitely trend a few points R. Agreed.