The absentee/early vote thread

[Ozymandias]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

"supporters of Gary Johnson simply aren’t turning out in early voting, according to our polling data. So far, he has just 3 percent of the vote among people who voted early, according to our polling and our modeled data."

[Desroko]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html

"supporters of Gary Johnson simply aren’t turning out in early voting, according to our polling data. So far, he has just 3 percent of the vote among people who voted early, according to our polling and our modeled data."

I have to be circumspect here, but this is absolutely what I'm seeing. The pattern even shows up in public polling - 3rd party voters are more weakly attached than Dem/GOP, less likely to vote, and most damningly, the ones that are most likely to vote are the same ones that are most weakly attached.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This seems to reinforce the idea that many people who choose Johnson in a poll do so simply because they don't like either Clinton or Trump, and Johnson is an offered alternative.  But they have no strong attachment to Johnson, so they're more likely to stay home than to turn out and vote for him.

[Mike88]

Almost 12 million people have cast or mailed in a ballot. Is it possible to say that, this year, early voting could be almost half of all votes cast?

[The Other Castro]

Michael McDonald ‏@ElectProject  18m18 minutes ago
TX early voting (mail & in-person) in the 15 largest counties as of 10/25: 969,243 people have voted, up 46.2% from say point in 2012


Dave Wasserman ‏@Redistrict  9m9 minutes ago
Biggest TX early voting increases vs. '12, as of Day 2:
1. Travis (D) +119%
2. El Paso (D) +93%
3. Williamson (R) +89%
4. Collin (R) +72%

[Maxwell]

wow! look at all those Trump Dems! #MAGA

[Antonio the Sixth]

So are the partisan numbers in Florida good or bad for the Dems? The last few posts have confused me.

[windjammer]

So are the partisan numbers in Florida good or bad for the Dems? The last few posts have confused me.

Good news for dems

[Hydera]

wow! look at all those Trump Dems! #MAGA

BREAKING: LATINOS splitting for TRUMP by 6% in Nevada early votes (Romney was DOWN 12% in 2012) #MAGA!! #KillaryforPRISON


I sh**t you not if you search 'Nevada early voting' in twitter you'll find the exact tweet. and it like all other pro-trump tweets it had no source/link.

So are the partisan numbers in Florida good or bad for the Dems? The last few posts have confused me.

Good for dems because they were down by 3% in the early vote in 2012 and now its tied.




Back to the general electionWhat you should assume is that 4-8% of the dems in the early vote are registered dems who have voted GOP for decades and didnt bother to change registration who live mostly in the panhandle.



Then you assume that most of the NPA's will split for the democrats because a large segment of them are hispanics.

[Speed of Sound]

So are the partisan numbers in Florida good or bad for the Dems? The last few posts have confused me.

Good news for dems

Yeah, FL is one that really can't be read any other way than positive for the Dems so far.

[BoAtlantis]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/791341639201648645?lang=de

"Interesting tidbit:  The NPA's in FL who have voted are disproportionally unlikely voters (about 40%) & a bitmore Hispanic than electorate."

[Hydera]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/791341639201648645?lang=de

"Interesting tidbit:  The NPA's in FL who have voted are disproportionally unlikely voters (about 40%) & a bitmore Hispanic than electorate."

Bad news for those who think NPA's will lean trump because 'obviously they hate hillary!!!'

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Oregon

http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Documents/G16-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

168,847 returned so far or 6.6%...

Party break down appears to be
Democrat 87,649
Republican 46.997

[KingSweden]

Oregon

http://sos.oregon.gov/voting/Documents/G16-Daily-Ballot-Returns.pdf

168,847 returned so far or 6.6%...

Party break down appears to be
Democrat 87,649
Republican 46.997

...

I know it's early but that's DOUBLe

[Maxwell]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

[Mehmentum]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

100% of voting in Oregon is early voting, right?

[Ebsy]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

I don't know about the numbers at this point in 2012, but the final numbers in Oregon were 752,722 Democrats, 602,090 Republicans, 352,001 NAV and about 112k in other parties.

[NOVA Green]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

In 2012 there were ~140k ballots cast by the third reporting day of early voting, which is lower than the  170k cast in three days of early voting this year.

Unfortunately, I can't see the party breakdown of EV for 2012 yet to see what the trend looks like.

I will note that the early vote numbers in 2016 are significantly higher in heavily rural and older Republican counties in Eastern and Southern Oregon than the statewide average, but I don't think that is particularly unusual.

What is interesting is that almost 11% have already been returned in overwhelmingly Democratic Multnomah County, also lagging in both the Democratic suburbs of Washington County, former Democratic strongholds of Coos & Columbia with large working-class Whites that have been trending Republican over the past few decades, and anemic in Jackson County in Southern Oregon, which is on my 2012-2016 flip R to D list, as well as Yamhill County (Exurban PDX).

[Erich Maria Remarque]

This seems to reinforce the idea that many people who choose Johnson in a poll do so simply because they don't like either Clinton or Trump, and Johnson is an offered alternative. 

That's not an idea, that's what people actually said to pollsters. The same applies to undecided voters, they dislike both/all candidates.

[Moortje]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

In 2012 there were ~140k ballots cast by the third reporting day of early voting, which is lower than the  170k cast in three days of early voting this year.

Unfortunately, I can't see the party breakdown of EV for 2012 yet to see what the trend looks like.

I will note that the early vote numbers in 2016 are significantly higher in heavily rural and older Republican counties in Eastern and Southern Oregon than the statewide average, but I don't think that is particularly unusual.

What is interesting is that almost 11% have already been returned in overwhelmingly Democratic Multnomah County, also lagging in both the Democratic suburbs of Washington County, former Democratic strongholds of Coos & Columbia with large working-class Whites that have been trending Republican over the past few decades, and anemic in Jackson County in Southern Oregon, which is on my 2012-2016 flip R to D list, as well as Yamhill County (Exurban PDX).

Hey everyone! Been lurking here at Atlas since 2008, but following this thread finally pushed me to register, because I've been following Oregon's numbers closely. I can't post the link because I don't have enough posts, but just google "oregon cumulative daily ballot returns" and the second link is a pdf with the return rates since 2000 on the SoS' website.

Here's what I've gleaned:

Oregon almost always hits 70% turnout in midterms, and hits 81-84% in presidentials. The vote is coming in this year at a rate that definitely looks guaranteed to hit 80% turnout, and very possibly closer to 85%. We just need a couple more days to get a clearer picture.

You're very right about Multnomah; it almost always lags the rest of the state until the day before election day and the day itself, when the avalanche of lefty Portland NAVs finally sweeps in. I remember the Mult overall return numbers in 2014 being mired in the single digits for several days longer than this. They do have several barnburner city/county races there this year, so maybe that's driving turnout.

And the rural, conservative counties do tend to come in heavy early. It's yet another way that the Oregon electorate regularly Lucy-and-the-footballs the state GOP. I remember the reddish-heavy early vote in 2014 causing all the conservative posters on OregonLive to gloat in the weeks before in the election. Instead, we were in the only state in the country to increase Democratic majorities in both houses. Woops!

[psychprofessor]

Is that better or worse than previous early voting in Oregon?

In 2012 there were ~140k ballots cast by the third reporting day of early voting, which is lower than the  170k cast in three days of early voting this year.

Unfortunately, I can't see the party breakdown of EV for 2012 yet to see what the trend looks like.

I will note that the early vote numbers in 2016 are significantly higher in heavily rural and older Republican counties in Eastern and Southern Oregon than the statewide average, but I don't think that is particularly unusual.

What is interesting is that almost 11% have already been returned in overwhelmingly Democratic Multnomah County, also lagging in both the Democratic suburbs of Washington County, former Democratic strongholds of Coos & Columbia with large working-class Whites that have been trending Republican over the past few decades, and anemic in Jackson County in Southern Oregon, which is on my 2012-2016 flip R to D list, as well as Yamhill County (Exurban PDX).

Hey everyone! Been lurking here at Atlas since 2008, but following this thread finally pushed me to register, because I've been following Oregon's numbers closely. I can't post the link because I don't have enough posts, but just google "oregon cumulative daily ballot returns" and the second link is a pdf with the return rates since 2000 on the SoS' website.

Here's what I've gleaned:

Oregon almost always hits 70% turnout in midterms, and hits 81-84% in presidentials. The vote is coming in this year at a rate that definitely looks guaranteed to hit 80% turnout, and very possibly closer to 85%. We just need a couple more days to get a clearer picture.

You're very right about Multnomah; it almost always lags the rest of the state until the day before election day and the day itself, when the avalanche of lefty Portland NAVs finally sweeps in. I remember the Mult overall return numbers in 2014 being mired in the single digits for several days longer than this. They do have several barnburner city/county races there this year, so maybe that's driving turnout.

And the rural, conservative counties do tend to come in heavy early. It's yet another way that the Oregon electorate regularly Lucy-and-the-footballs the state GOP. I remember the reddish-heavy early vote in 2014 causing all the conservative posters on OregonLive to gloat in the weeks before in the election. Instead, we were in the only state in the country to increase Democratic majorities in both houses. Woops!

welcome!

[dspNY]

Possible Dem improvement in Ohio?

https://mobile.twitter.com/tbonier/status/791235054374625280

Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties now total 20% of the statewide vote. In 2012, they made up 21.8% and Obama won by 3

[Nyvin]

So far there seems to be a large disparity between female and male voters,   is this normal in early voting?   Or is Trump causing a female voter surge?

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/new-data-reveals-early-voting-trends-in-key-swing-states/


WI:
Gender: 57.3% Female // 41.7% Male

NC:
Gender: 56.1% F // 43.8% M

FL:
Gender: 56% F // 43.9% M

IA:
Gender: 56.9% F // 43.0% M

GA:
Gender: 56.7% F // 43.2% M

ME:
Gender: 56.1% F // 43.2% M

The only state not to show this trend is CO, which was almost exactly even.    

[dspNY]

So far there seems to be a large disparity between female and male voters,   is this normal in early voting?   Or is Trump causing a female voter surge?

http://www.techrepublic.com/article/new-data-reveals-early-voting-trends-in-key-swing-states/


WI:
Gender: 57.3% Female // 41.7% Male

NC:
Gender: 56.1% F // 43.8% M

FL:
Gender: 56% F // 43.9% M

IA:
Gender: 56.9% F // 43.0% M

GA:
Gender: 56.7% F // 43.2% M

ME:
Gender: 56.1% F // 43.2% M

The only state not to show this trend is CO, which was almost exactly even.    

Usually the vote in any state is around a 53-47 split so to see 56-57% female is a bit unusual

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/791385700730101894
Latest NBC Marist poll in Nevada has Clinton up 25 points in early voting (60-35)