The absentee/early vote thread

[Virginiá]

Additionally, Oregon now has automatic driver license voter registration, which is likely expanding voter registration levels among first-time drivers, as well as those who need to renew their driver's license every 7-8 years.

This is why automatic voter registration is even more critical in states with vote-by-mail like CO/WA/OR. With everyone who interacts with the DMV getting registered, they automatically end up receiving a ballot with no extra steps on their part. The next step would be to automatically register those who interact with other public agencies, like Illinois was trying to do (before Rauner vetoed it)

I'm curious what the final numbers will be in Oregon. I'd expect more than usual, even with any higher turnout trends factored in, but then again I've also heard speculation that turnout as a share of the registered voter electorate, it could be smaller because even people who are registered who wouldn't have been otherwise, it doesn't mean they all end up voting, which could cause the % of registered voters who voted to be lower than usual even if way more people ended up voting in general.

But, we'll see!

[NOVA Green]

^ Matches the VBM patterns in Washington so far.  We don't have party registration, but I've seen the data.

So what are you seeing for early VBM numbers in Clark and Pierce Counties thus far for relatively Blue Collar parts of the state?

I've been looking at the return rates among voters who participated in our useless May presidential primary as a gauge of enthusiasm -- especially since you'd figure those folks are disproportionately hardcore party faithful.  So far, Democratic returns outpace Republican turns about 27.2% to 22.8%.  The gap is mostly pretty uniform statewide.  King is slightly higher than average, but among the 36/39 counties reporting statistics, only two have a higher return rate among Republicans.  Those are Okanogan, which had a high-turnout ballot measure on the May ballot, so I wouldn't pay that due, and Grays Harbor, a working-class Dem-leaning county where Trump did quite well in the primary.

Oddly enough, Spokane has an even bigger gap (30.1% vs. 24.8%) than King.

Also, what's going on in Whitman and Spokane counties with VBMs in Eastern Washington, as well as some smaller counties along the Columbia River Gorge?

Sorry, in what way?

How's your Washington state flip map working based on what your early numbers are showing?

Eh, I'm reluctant to read too much into this.  I think it's a good sign for the Democrats, but considering today's national news and how vague these tea leaves are, I'm not overthinking it.  I expect turnout to even out, and after today, we may see the enthusiasm gap reverse slightly.  Who knows

Apologies... no party registration makes it a bit more difficult to read the bird entrails, so you have a bit less to work with for data points, other than the May "Primaries" to look at overall turnout and enthusiasm levels .

How is overall party registration and turnout numbers looking like in heavily Latino Counties in Eastern Washington? Have we seen a surge in voter registration numbers in places like Yakima County as well as early turnout numbers? What are early voting numbers looking like in heavily Mormon Counties in SE Washington?

What we are seeing in Eastern Oregon is high turnout levels in many traditionally Republican Counties that have both a large population of Mormons, as well as large populations of Latinos, and even with Party ID (Unlike WA) it's difficult to tell if we will see some interesting results from places like the "Inland Empire" where there is both a strong Anti-Trump Republican element, as well as an extremely large and latent Latino vote, in what are generally heavily Republican parts of both Oregon and Washington.

I wish I could run the 2008 and 2012 numbers in Oregon by County and Party ID for early voting, but unfortunately, I think I would need to pay to pull this data.

[Crumpets]

^ Matches the VBM patterns in Washington so far.  We don't have party registration, but I've seen the data.

So what are you seeing for early VBM numbers in Clark and Pierce Counties thus far for relatively Blue Collar parts of the state?

I've been looking at the return rates among voters who participated in our useless May presidential primary as a gauge of enthusiasm -- especially since you'd figure those folks are disproportionately hardcore party faithful.  So far, Democratic returns outpace Republican turns about 27.2% to 22.8%.  The gap is mostly pretty uniform statewide.  King is slightly higher than average, but among the 36/39 counties reporting statistics, only two have a higher return rate among Republicans.  Those are Okanogan, which had a high-turnout ballot measure on the May ballot, so I wouldn't pay that due, and Grays Harbor, a working-class Dem-leaning county where Trump did quite well in the primary.

Oddly enough, Spokane has an even bigger gap (30.1% vs. 24.8%) than King.

Also, what's going on in Whitman and Spokane counties with VBMs in Eastern Washington, as well as some smaller counties along the Columbia River Gorge?

Sorry, in what way?

How's your Washington state flip map working based on what your early numbers are showing?

Eh, I'm reluctant to read too much into this.  I think it's a good sign for the Democrats, but considering today's national news and how vague these tea leaves are, I'm not overthinking it.  I expect turnout to even out, and after today, we may see the enthusiasm gap reverse slightly.  Who knows

Apologies... no party registration makes it a bit more difficult to read the bird entrails, so you have a bit less to work with for data points, other than the May "Primaries" to look at overall turnout and enthusiasm levels .

How is overall party registration and turnout numbers looking like in heavily Latino Counties in Eastern Washington? Have we seen a surge in voter registration numbers in places like Yakima County as well as early turnout numbers? What are early voting numbers looking like in heavily Mormon Counties in SE Washington?

What we are seeing in Eastern Oregon is high turnout levels in many traditionally Republican Counties that have both a large population of Mormons, as well as large populations of Latinos, and even with Party ID (Unlike WA) it's difficult to tell if we will see some interesting results from places like the "Inland Empire" where there is both a strong Anti-Trump Republican element, as well as an extremely large and latent Latino vote, in what are generally heavily Republican parts of both Oregon and Washington.

I wish I could run the 2008 and 2012 numbers in Oregon by County and Party ID for early voting, but unfortunately, I think I would need to pay to pull this data.

How are you getting partisan data when we don't have party registration?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/26/politics/early-voting-statistics-2016-election

Interesting numbers.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

Broadly, excellent.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

Also for reference, 2008: White 69, Black 13.1, Hispanic 12

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

Looks like Hispanics are flexing their political power and are about ready to show Donald Trump the door.

[dspNY]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

Broadly, excellent.

That would explain part of why FAU found Clinton up by 13 among early voters even though the party ID breakdown is even. Lots of newly registered Hispanic voters register as independent

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn
Florida's registered voters, now final:
2016: White 64.2, Hispanic 15.7, Black 13.4
2012: White 66.5, Hispanic 13.9, Black 13.6

Broadly, excellent.

That would explain part of why FAU found Clinton up by 13 among early voters even though the party ID breakdown is even. Lots of newly registered Hispanic voters register as independent

Well, that is really promising.

[Gass3268]

Some more on Florida:

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[Dr. Arch]

Some more on Florida:

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The Angry Puerto Rican vote will push FL into the higher single-digits.

P.S. Any updates on the complete totals from NV today?

[ApatheticAustrian]

P.S. Any updates on the complete totals from NV today?

not likely, they come late in the night usually....after 11 pm local time..at least 2-3 more hours.

[Gass3268]

Some more on Florida:

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The Angry Puerto Rican vote will push FL into the higher single-digits.

P.S. Any updates on the complete totals from NV today?

More on FL:

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Amazing to think that Bush almost one this county in 2004.

[pbrower2a]

I dropped off my absentee ballot. Straight Democratic, although I did vote for the unopposed Republican nominee for sheriff.

I made a turn in front of a speeder that I didn't see, and immediately pulled to the shoulder to let him get past me. I saw the sheriff's car next and waited. I then got into the traffic lane and continued on.

The speeder got a ticket. 

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

Nevada-incomplete 2016 numbers http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=4543

In person
  Democrats 149,783, Republicans 115,697 = 34,086 vote lead for the democrats. About 10.21% lead!

Mail in's

  Republicans 18,974,  Democrats 16,837 = 2,137 lead for the republicans

34,086-2,137 = 31,949 vote lead for the democrats...Likely to drop a little as most county's out are pro-republican.


Compared to

Nevada at the completion of the first week of 2012 seen a 29,187 Democrat lead in inperson voting and a ~535 early mail in lead for the republicans. So for a overall lead of 28,652 votes for the Democrats.

http://nvsos.gov/sos/home/showdocument?id=2501

[Ebsy]

Things are looking good in Nevada.

[Antonio the Sixth]

In % terms, doesn't that mean that the Democratic margin is about the same as in 2012? Which is all right, I guess, but I'd like to see Dems overperform.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I voted yesterday.

[Dr. Arch]

This is the last early vote weekend, correct? I'm looking forward to updates. If we can lock down NV and CO, it's over.

[ApatheticAustrian]

yeah.....it is.

which brings me to the question.....does that mean you americans are able to vote right now but not between next friday and tuesday?

[Thomas D]

yeah.....it is.

which brings me to the question.....does that mean you americans are able to vote right now but not between next friday and tuesday?

Yes.

[riceowl]

yeah.....it is.

which brings me to the question.....does that mean you americans are able to vote right now but not between next friday and tuesday?

State by state - in Texas we could vote from this last Monday (the 24th) through Friday (the 4th). Then no voting until the 8th.

[ApatheticAustrian]

thanks both of you.

sounds really strange, especially since weekends are the "normal" time for voting in nearly every modern democracy.....surely would also increase turnout.

[BoAtlantis]

What's interesting to me is how blacks are under-performing this year, possibly even above and beyond their limited access to voting locations.

Unaffiliated #'s are way outperforming.

Democrats aren't doing terribly so far because many liberal youngsters have registered as unaffiliated this year but Democrats definitely need to way outperform their 2012 #'s. They have serious grounds to make up.