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Author Topic: IN-WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana: Bayh +4  (Read 1912 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: September 09, 2016, 04:10:57 pm »

44% Evan Bayh (D)
40% Todd Young (R)
5% Lucy Brenton (L)



http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-locked-in-close-senate-race
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King Francis I
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2016, 04:11:45 pm »

Oooooooh so this race has tightened.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2016, 04:15:30 pm »

Todd Young's response to this poll was probably: "I was a former marine"
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Jimmie
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2016, 04:17:24 pm »

Underwhelmingly lead, but I do think Bayh will pull it off at the end. I know many Democrats are not happy with some of Bayh's stances, but he is another seat for us!

I think Indiana will be:

President: Trump +9
Senate: Bayh +9
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2016, 04:17:35 pm »

It's competitive, to be sure, but Bayh has the edge for now.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2016, 04:18:39 pm »

Yeah, this and the monmouth poll really show how skewed those Senate Majority PAC internals were. I still think this is Lean D, but it's not much of a Lean.
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2016, 04:30:58 pm »

"The poll, the first of three for WTHR/Howey Politics between now and the Nov. 8 election, was conducted of 600 likely voters Sept. 6-8, including 360 landline users and 240 cellphone users, with a margin of error of 4.0%. The sample consisted of 40% independents, 31% Republican and 28% Democratic,"
http://howeypolitics.com

MOE 4.0% is suspiciously high. Similarly suspicious is the party registration.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2016, 04:31:11 pm »

Todd Young's response to this poll was probably: "I was a former marine"

After his primary debate the joke was that all of his sentences were "Noun verb, Marine!"
Great poll for Young, it seems if he can keep in the current course he could pull it off.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2016, 04:31:31 pm »

I think two months are just enough time for Young to overcome this deficit.
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2016, 08:53:57 pm »

I think two months are just enough time for Young to overcome this deficit.
Probably not.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2016, 09:13:31 pm »

I think two months are just enough time for Young to overcome this deficit.
Probably not.
Yes it is plenty of time.
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2016, 09:22:26 pm »

This will be a squeaker
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olowakandi
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2016, 06:00:42 am »

Bayh will win. I live right next door to IN and Hoosiers love Bayh
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Bismarck
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2016, 09:34:31 am »

I live in Indiana
Bayh will win. I live right next door to IN and Hoosiers love Bayh

I live in Indiana and I can tell you it's mixed feelings. This is the first time he has had a real opponent since 1988. Although, my county was one of the five or so that voted against him in 04 so who knows.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2016, 10:57:39 am »

After some thoughts,
Todd Young definitely can win. It's going to be close, very close, a 50-50 race.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2016, 11:04:32 am »

That's why the Dems are pulling $$$ out of OH and FL to protect McGinty, Cortez-Masto and Bayh.
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2016, 11:43:25 am »

The undecided are definitely R leaning. So, this race is essentially a toss-up, I would just like another poll to confirm.
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Figueira
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2016, 12:57:02 pm »

Like I've been saying, Tossup/Tilt D.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2016, 08:59:28 pm »

This was my prediction all along. It will be quite embarrassing for Bayh and Indiana democrats when he loses... albeit narrowly
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olowakandi
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2016, 09:12:10 pm »

Bayh isnt losing this. Pence approvals are low and he's not popular in his home state. Bayh will take it like Donnelly, 5-6 points.
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2016, 09:14:49 pm »

This is going to go down to the wire.  The country is much more polarized than it was when Bayh was last on the ballot. 
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2016, 09:17:00 pm »

This is going to go down to the wire.  The country is much more polarized than it was when Bayh was last on the ballot. 

Yup. If the national Republicans spend enough money on attack ads they can probably paint Bayh as a generic D. His appeal/chance of winning relies on enough Republican voters seeing Bayh as different from the Democratic party as a whole.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2016, 01:42:05 am »

Oh but the Republicans should clearly defund Indiana because it is a hopeless case and instead spend the money in states where they are facing a uphill climb from the top of the ticket. Roll Eyes

Lesson for the wise, money flows like water and Indiana is the path of least resistance. Nobody cares what your last name is anymore.

 If Warner's near defeat wasn't enough shock therapy, than perhaps Bayh losing 50-48 will be. Young has two months to convince undecided Republicans in a state that has never been too kind to the Clintons, to vote for a Marine (Tongue) over a Clinton shill dropped back in after ditching the state.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2016, 06:28:53 pm »

Strickland was the Clinton shill and he will lose decisively for what he said about Scalia

He should of kept the owners on McConnell's obstruction. And he would be in the position Bayh would be in. Tossup/IN.


« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 06:30:57 pm by Da-Jon »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2016, 06:57:40 pm »

We'll see who is right in November but, remember, many of the people discounting Bayh discounted the prospects of Donnelly defeating Mourdock in 2012. If surnames weren't important anymore, Casey wouldn't walk to victory in 2012, Warner's non-campaign in 2014 would have gone down in flames etc. These things still matter...
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