IN-WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana: Bayh +4

[MT Treasurer]

44% Evan Bayh (D)
40% Todd Young (R)
5% Lucy Brenton (L)



http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-bayh-young-locked-in-close-senate-race

[windjammer]

Oooooooh so this race has tightened.

[Maxwell]

Todd Young's response to this poll was probably: "I was a former marine"

[jamestroll]

Underwhelmingly lead, but I do think Bayh will pull it off at the end. I know many Democrats are not happy with some of Bayh's stances, but he is another seat for us!

I think Indiana will be:

President: Trump +9
Senate: Bayh +9

[Xing]

It's competitive, to be sure, but Bayh has the edge for now.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Yeah, this and the monmouth poll really show how skewed those Senate Majority PAC internals were. I still think this is Lean D, but it's not much of a Lean.

[Kingpoleon]

"The poll, the first of three for WTHR/Howey Politics between now and the Nov. 8 election, was conducted of 600 likely voters Sept. 6-8, including 360 landline users and 240 cellphone users, with a margin of error of 4.0%. The sample consisted of 40% independents, 31% Republican and 28% Democratic,"
http://howeypolitics.com

MOE 4.0% is suspiciously high. Similarly suspicious is the party registration.

[Bismarck]

Todd Young's response to this poll was probably: "I was a former marine"

After his primary debate the joke was that all of his sentences were "Noun verb, Marine!"
Great poll for Young, it seems if he can keep in the current course he could pull it off.

[MT Treasurer]

I think two months are just enough time for Young to overcome this deficit.

[Ebsy]

I think two months are just enough time for Young to overcome this deficit.

Probably not.

[Heisenberg]

I think two months are just enough time for Young to overcome this deficit.

Probably not.

Yes it is plenty of time.

[KingSweden]

This will be a squeaker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bayh will win. I live right next door to IN and Hoosiers love Bayh

[Bismarck]

I live in Indiana

Bayh will win. I live right next door to IN and Hoosiers love Bayh

I live in Indiana and I can tell you it's mixed feelings. This is the first time he has had a real opponent since 1988. Although, my county was one of the five or so that voted against him in 04 so who knows.

[windjammer]

After some thoughts,
Todd Young definitely can win. It's going to be close, very close, a 50-50 race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's why the Dems are pulling $$$ out of OH and FL to protect McGinty, Cortez-Masto and Bayh.

[ElectionsGuy]

The undecided are definitely R leaning. So, this race is essentially a toss-up, I would just like another poll to confirm.

[Figueira]

Like I've been saying, Tossup/Tilt D.

[Young Conservative]

This was my prediction all along. It will be quite embarrassing for Bayh and Indiana democrats when he loses... albeit narrowly

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bayh isnt losing this. Pence approvals are low and he's not popular in his home state. Bayh will take it like Donnelly, 5-6 points.

[Green Line]

This is going to go down to the wire.  The country is much more polarized than it was when Bayh was last on the ballot. 

[TJ in Oregon]

This is going to go down to the wire.  The country is much more polarized than it was when Bayh was last on the ballot. 

Yup. If the national Republicans spend enough money on attack ads they can probably paint Bayh as a generic D. His appeal/chance of winning relies on enough Republican voters seeing Bayh as different from the Democratic party as a whole.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Oh but the Republicans should clearly defund Indiana because it is a hopeless case and instead spend the money in states where they are facing a uphill climb from the top of the ticket.

Lesson for the wise, money flows like water and Indiana is the path of least resistance. Nobody cares what your last name is anymore.

 If Warner's near defeat wasn't enough shock therapy, than perhaps Bayh losing 50-48 will be. Young has two months to convince undecided Republicans in a state that has never been too kind to the Clintons, to vote for a Marine () over a Clinton shill dropped back in after ditching the state.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Strickland was the Clinton shill and he will lose decisively for what he said about Scalia

He should of kept the owners on McConnell's obstruction. And he would be in the position Bayh would be in. Tossup/IN.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

We'll see who is right in November but, remember, many of the people discounting Bayh discounted the prospects of Donnelly defeating Mourdock in 2012. If surnames weren't important anymore, Casey wouldn't walk to victory in 2012, Warner's non-campaign in 2014 would have gone down in flames etc. These things still matter...