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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 10912 times)
rafta_rafta
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« Reply #100 on: October 10, 2016, 06:50:49 pm »

Google Consumer Survey poll individual state results are always wonky.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #101 on: October 10, 2016, 09:18:43 pm »

Google Consumer Survey poll individual state results are always wonky.
Massive understatement.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #102 on: October 10, 2016, 09:20:35 pm »

I honestly think that GCS has a systemic problem polling the South.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #103 on: October 11, 2016, 12:06:34 am »

I honestly think that GCS has a systemic problem polling the South.
Or DC or the midwest.

These polls are basically 4-question polls and look at geolocation to determine where the voter is going to vote, which is why for a while, they got terrible results in DC.

Obviously 2 of the 50 polls should fail as a matter of science at 95% confidence and some of the MOEs are gigantic (especially in the smaller states), which make these polls dicey.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #104 on: October 11, 2016, 07:10:49 pm »

Img


Caveat emptor, but still...

Quote
After Sundayís debate, I commissioned a Google Consumer Surveys poll of the presidential race in Utah. The results show a very close three-way race between Trump, Clinton, and Evan McMullin.

Right now, almost none of the Utah political establishment has endorsed a candidate. Mitt Romney, Sen. Mike Lee, Gov. Gary Herbert, and most other top officials are on the record opposing Trump at this point, but none of them publicly support another candidate. It seems to me that if any one of those three officials mentioned were to publicly endorse Evan McMullin, he would instantly become the favorite in Utah.

Gary Johnson continues to struggle in Utah. He places 4th by a sizable margin in this poll. While McMullin is unlikely to show anywhere near this much support in any other state, the growth of another third party candidate will make it much harder for Johnson to take a significant part of the Trump vote.

Hillary Clinton is likely to get about 30% of the vote in Utah. I canít predict whether that will be enough for her to win, or put her in 3rd place in the state.

https://medium.com/@alexanderpower/new-utah-poll-17c3d315155#.z23bys74o
« Last Edit: October 11, 2016, 07:17:03 pm by Simfan34 »Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #105 on: October 11, 2016, 07:11:58 pm »

It's a Google "survey" so, let's not include this in anything.
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Never Beto
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« Reply #106 on: October 11, 2016, 07:12:51 pm »

I feel sorry for UT. They truly have no one that they feel represents them at all.
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darthpi
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« Reply #107 on: October 11, 2016, 07:15:56 pm »

I'm guessing this is what Rick Wilson was referring to when he tweeted this: https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/785990347629424640
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Horus
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« Reply #108 on: October 11, 2016, 07:16:30 pm »

Too bad it's google consumer surveys.
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Snek!
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« Reply #109 on: October 11, 2016, 07:20:02 pm »

Well, they are a persecuted people. Maybe they will empathize with others going forward but they are doubts that persecuted people can empathize with one another. That is why we night have to do the math backwards soon.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #110 on: October 11, 2016, 07:25:52 pm »

hmp...not even the pros can separate those things and a REAL poll. <.<
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Higgs
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« Reply #111 on: October 11, 2016, 07:31:09 pm »

McMentum!
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« Reply #112 on: October 12, 2016, 01:54:01 am »

Img
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Lok
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« Reply #113 on: October 12, 2016, 04:33:51 am »

Img

LOL@ ALL OF THIS, ESPECIALLY DC
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #114 on: October 12, 2016, 09:46:07 am »


wow
« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 10:00:26 am by @realJohnEwards »Logged
ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #115 on: October 12, 2016, 09:49:16 am »

Let's just take a moment to appreciate that New Hampshire is neck-and-neck with Vermont for the most Democratic state in the nation in this poll
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Ted Bessell
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« Reply #116 on: October 12, 2016, 09:54:23 am »

>when life imitates President Infinity
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #117 on: October 17, 2016, 10:09:45 pm »

So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.
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cinyc
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« Reply #118 on: October 17, 2016, 10:14:51 pm »

So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.
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Alcon
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« Reply #119 on: October 17, 2016, 11:09:18 pm »

So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.

Hmmmm...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2016/08/10/lawsuit-how-a-quiet-kansas-home-wound-up-with-600-million-ip-addresses-and-a-world-of-trouble/
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Holmes
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« Reply #120 on: October 17, 2016, 11:17:51 pm »

So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.

We should crowdfund a Google Consumer Survey for Kansas where the only question is "Are you from Kansas? Yes/No/Not Sure"
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cinyc
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« Reply #121 on: October 17, 2016, 11:34:51 pm »

So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.

Something's probably wrong with the IP locating in Kansas.  No way the state is C+19.  I'm almost tempted to run a Kansas poll with a "not from Kansas" option just to prove it - but I won't.

We should crowdfund a Google Consumer Survey for Kansas where the only question is "Are you from Kansas? Yes/No/Not Sure"

That would be interesting.  I would probably phrase it "Are you currently in Kansas?", and drop the Not Sure option.  GCS would probably make us add a "I prefer not to say" option, though.

Thinking about it, an actual state poll might not cause as many problems as a U.S. poll due to weighting.  My South Dakota poll was pretty evenly geographically distributed, at least in theory.  Now that all these IP addresses in the Washington Post Article resolve to a lake in Wichita, a statewide poll will probably only include so many of them before moving on to other parts of the state.  The Wichita sample might get skewed, but the rest of the state should be okay.

A nationwide poll (which is what the GCS 50-state surveys ultimately are based on) might not have as fine a geographical distribution - just being from "Kansas" might be good enough for a national poll, instead of them further breaking down Kansas into other areas.  And if more people with IP addresses from "Kansas" actually aren't from the state, their whole Kansas subsample would be off.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2016, 11:49:29 pm by cinyc »Logged
Gustaf
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« Reply #122 on: October 18, 2016, 02:49:07 am »

Behold the glory:

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Arch
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« Reply #123 on: October 18, 2016, 08:39:14 am »

Behold the glory:



Img
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cinyc
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« Reply #124 on: October 22, 2016, 02:17:14 pm »

Google Consumer Survey's 10/20 results (click on the image for a larger view):

Img


GCS seems to weigh their 50-state polls the same way they weigh the polls we've been conducting - by Internet users.  That's a bit bizarre for a poll of likely voters, but it is what it is.  As an experiment, I extracted the raw numbers and reweighted them according to the method amdcpus and I have been using to weight our GCS LV polls.  The Trump-Clinton margin raw data was, on average, 1.08 points more favorable to Trump, probably because GCS samples tend to be male-heavy.  The Trump-Clinton margin using the amdcpus method was, on average, 1.6 points more favorable to Trump, likely because younger voters are less likely to vote Trump, but get more heavily weighted in the GCS Internet User method.  Three states - Indiana, Pennsylvania and Maine - flipped to Trump as a result of the amdcpus method.

I didn't do this exercise to question the GCS polls.  As I've always said, polls are a snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time using the methodology that the particular pollster uses.  No more.  No less.  But how polls are weighted does matter.  Thus, any pollsters' polls are sometimes more useful in determining trends than anything else.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 11:25:50 pm by cinyc »Logged
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