Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 23, 2019, 07:43:04 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 Print
Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 10934 times)
Noted Irishman
Adam Griffin
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,848
Greece


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #125 on: October 23, 2016, 02:09:54 am »

^^^ Out of curiosity, I threw all of those (approximate) margins into my popular vote spreadsheet. In the two-way model, Clinton leads in the PV by a little over 2 points.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,289
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #126 on: October 23, 2016, 03:01:35 am »

This looks like some serious garbage.
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,854


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #127 on: October 23, 2016, 01:56:21 pm »

The realignment!!



Or, only using the right column:


299-239
« Last Edit: October 23, 2016, 11:43:29 pm by ExtremeRepublican »Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #128 on: October 23, 2016, 05:58:39 pm »

The realignment!!



Or, only using the right column:


293-245

Your maps have Kansas incorrectly colored.  GCS has Clinton up there, no matter how you weight them.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #129 on: October 23, 2016, 11:29:43 pm »

I made a systemic computational error with the LV margin.  (Fortunately, this is only an issue with this dataset, and not what I've weighted before).  Basically, I had the wrong formula in the female rows, and I didn't include the Female 18-24s while wrongly weighting the other Female age categories.  Fixing that issue lowered the average LV margin difference versus GCS Internet weighting to Trump +1.56.  Still a difference, but not as stark.  The same states flipped to Trump, but only barely.
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,781
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #130 on: October 25, 2016, 04:04:05 pm »

10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror



Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,979
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #131 on: October 25, 2016, 04:08:59 pm »

AYY LMAO
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #132 on: October 25, 2016, 04:39:33 pm »

10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror




By Google standards, that's downright reasonable! They're improving.
Logged
Devout Centrist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,372
United States


Political Matrix
E: -99.99, S: -99.99

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #133 on: October 25, 2016, 04:40:18 pm »

1-800-AYYLMAO
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #134 on: October 25, 2016, 04:42:05 pm »

It would be great if GCS' last poll churns out reasonable accurate results, and they are given a pass for all the junk they pushed out into the world.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #135 on: October 25, 2016, 05:13:04 pm »

Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?
Logged
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,781
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #136 on: October 25, 2016, 05:15:19 pm »

Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?

Partly because they often have very small sample sizes in many states, and partly because any pollster crazy enough to conduct such a type of poll must be a bad pollster in the first place.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #137 on: October 25, 2016, 05:51:14 pm »

Why are 50 state polls always complete junk?

Partly because they often have very small sample sizes in many states, and partly because any pollster crazy enough to conduct such a type of poll must be a bad pollster in the first place.

They also don't weight the polls for the electorate in all 50 states, just to Internet users nationally.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #138 on: October 25, 2016, 08:01:44 pm »

10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror




By Google standards, that's downright reasonable! They're improving.

Alaska should be Atlas red and New Hampshire Atlas blue.  With whopping sample sizes of 86 and 56, what could possibly go wrong?
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #139 on: October 25, 2016, 08:15:16 pm »

Google Consumer Survey's 10/25 Results:

Img


This time, the margin in Google's model is only off the margin in the amdcpus LV model by an average 0.84 points.  The raw, unweighted results are off the Google model by 1.06 points.
Logged
ExtremeConservative
ExtremeRepublican
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,854


Political Matrix
E: 8.39, S: 7.83

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #140 on: October 25, 2016, 09:45:48 pm »



This map would be the worst, because I would probably get really excited when the East came in, only to be stunned by the West!  But, maybe in real life, the Western Hillary supporters would stay at home because they saw results from the East.
Logged
Hammy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,818
United States


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #141 on: October 25, 2016, 11:47:44 pm »

This map hurts to look at despite being a Clinton victory. There are so many things that don't make sense, and it looks even more clunky than the primary map.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #142 on: October 26, 2016, 05:17:52 am »

This map hurts to look at despite being a Clinton victory. There are so many things that don't make sense, and it looks even more clunky than the primary map.
Take out AK, KS and IA and you get a 271 Freiwal Smiley
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #143 on: November 01, 2016, 09:44:06 pm »

The 11/1 Iteration:

Img
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,924
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #144 on: November 01, 2016, 10:01:32 pm »

Iowa and Deleware for Arizona, huh?
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #145 on: November 01, 2016, 10:06:59 pm »

Iowa and Deleware for Arizona, huh?

Delaware is the one state that flips if weighted by likely voter demographics.  Google itself has it going to Clinton - barely.  But the sample size is really small, 94.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2016, 10:12:04 pm by cinyc »Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #146 on: November 01, 2016, 10:19:30 pm »

The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #147 on: November 01, 2016, 10:19:52 pm »

The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.
It's heavily influencing the polling averages as well.
Logged
morgieb
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,380
Australia


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #148 on: November 01, 2016, 10:21:18 pm »

I love the smell of a junk poll of a morning.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #149 on: November 01, 2016, 10:23:04 pm »

The number of junk polls this year is very annoying.
It's heavily influencing the polling averages as well.

As far as I can tell, nobody besides Nate "Discredited Fraud" Silver includes these junky Google polls in their averages.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 [6] 7 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines