Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 23, 2019, 08:00:53 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] Print
Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 10941 times)
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
sjkqw
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,916
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #150 on: November 01, 2016, 10:25:29 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,198
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #151 on: November 01, 2016, 10:26:44 pm »

I do agree that Nate using things of this quality has been very not good for his numbers all season. Not sure what he's thinking.
Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #152 on: November 01, 2016, 10:26:57 pm »

Ah, I see NH is actually the third most Democratic state.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #153 on: November 01, 2016, 10:27:52 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

Medium/low/high angry women turnout levels?
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #154 on: November 01, 2016, 10:40:15 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #155 on: November 01, 2016, 10:54:14 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #156 on: November 01, 2016, 10:57:56 pm »

IDK if those polls "skew" 538. The average of 538 is pretty similar to Upshot. It is the chances that so different (because of strong covariance and and assumed polling error.) If I am not wrong.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #157 on: November 01, 2016, 11:01:48 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.
Logged
IceSpear
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.65, S: -5.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #158 on: November 01, 2016, 11:05:23 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #159 on: November 01, 2016, 11:31:48 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...

They're not all worthless.  Most state polls have sample sizes that are sufficient for a decent poll.  It's largely the polls in the 3-5 EV states that are sometimes dubious due to low sample sizes... and Kansas.  I still suspect Google Surveys has a problem resolving all the non-Kansan IP addresses that are geographically resolved to a lake near Wichita, Kansas.

The Google Survey polls Atlas users have commissioned in the 3-5 EV states are at least plausible because the sample size is larger.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,198
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #160 on: November 01, 2016, 11:33:15 pm »

Just checking, we realize NH went from Clinton +12 to Trump +9 to Clinton +31 in the first column, right? Geeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzzz

You mean over the last 3 releases, right?

That's bound to happen when you literally have polls of 70 people.  It's not a big enough sample to get realistic results.

Then why even post it?

Ask Google Surveys.  They've chosen to release polls with 70 respondents, and 538 is including them in their models.  I only post what Google Surveys has reported.  The sample size is included as a column for a reason.

Yeah, but if you think they're that worthless (I agree with you, as should anyone that isn't a discredited fraud), nobody's forcing you to post them...

They're not all worthless.  Most state polls have sample sizes that are sufficient for a decent poll.  It's largely the polls in the 3-5 EV states that are sometimes dubious due to low sample sizes... and Kansas.  I still suspect Google Surveys has a problem resolving all the non-Kansan IP addresses that are geographically resolved to a lake near Wichita, Kansas.

The Google Survey polls Atlas users have commissioned in the 3-5 EV states are at least plausible because the sample size is larger.

Yeah, they're far from A+s, and more often than other polls spit out some real eggs, but they're not as bad on the whole as people make them out to be.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,289
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #161 on: November 02, 2016, 05:02:29 am »

These give me a headache.
Logged
SUSAN CRUSHBONE
evergreen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,810
Antarctica


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #162 on: November 02, 2016, 10:00:22 am »

missouri at clinton+10 with a >500 sample size? Grin
Logged
Snek!
Angry_Weasel
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,924
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #163 on: November 02, 2016, 10:01:41 am »

missouri at clinton+10 with a >500 sample size? Grin

I think it probably has something to do with Kansas City and Fiber.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,289
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #164 on: November 04, 2016, 10:08:29 pm »

Did this update again yet?
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #165 on: November 04, 2016, 10:14:35 pm »

Did this update again yet?

I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #166 on: November 04, 2016, 10:17:02 pm »

Did this update again yet?

I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
The last update was on the 1st.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #167 on: November 04, 2016, 10:22:57 pm »

Did this update again yet?

I don't see an update on FiveThirtyEight or Google's own websites.  I expect their final polls on Monday or Tuesday.  They usually take 5 days.
The last update was on the 1st.

That puts them on track to possibly update their numbers on Monday.  It's usually been 5-6 days between 50-state poll releases.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #168 on: November 07, 2016, 10:10:24 pm »

The final Google Survey 50 State Poll Results.  Some of these are a real mess.  Salt to taste:

Img
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,624


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #169 on: November 07, 2016, 10:36:49 pm »

Google Survey Reported:
Img


Raw:
Img



LV Weighted:
Img
Logged
Arch
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,981
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #170 on: November 07, 2016, 10:37:43 pm »

Ummm... lol
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #171 on: November 08, 2016, 02:44:17 am »

Definitely going to lose their high pollster rating!
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 5 6 [7] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines