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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 10926 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« on: September 09, 2016, 09:03:05 pm »

https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/0B29GVb5ISrT0VzFQWjFSWGcyeVE

Very, very strange. 538 likes them though...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2016, 09:05:28 pm »

Biggest pile of junk I've ever seen. Their sample is 56% male, which I guess is one of the perils of online polling. Amazing that they don't have Trump up with crossstabs that favorable.
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2016, 09:17:35 pm »

Complete junk. Nate Silver is stupid to add these IMO

Trump +9 in FL
Clinton +17 in KS
Clinton going from tied in AK to down 26, neither of which are right

A waste of bandwidth
« Last Edit: September 09, 2016, 09:23:06 pm by dspNY »Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2016, 09:53:52 pm »

Oh my god, look at those sample sizes Surprise

Releasing a crosstab with fewer than 100 respondents is stupid. This is even moreso.
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Noted Irishman
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2016, 10:10:02 pm »

Jesus Christ.

Silver's whole #AllDataPointsMatter nonsense is getting out of control. Adding obvious junk polls under the presumed assumption that an equally polarizing and junkish poll will come along later to balance out the overall result is silliness.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2016, 10:13:43 pm »

Jesus Christ.

Silver's whole #AllDataPointsMatter nonsense is getting out of control. Adding obvious junk polls under the presumed assumption that an equally polarizing and junkish poll will come along later to balance out the overall result is silliness.

Yup. His attitude to the hilarious LA/USC poll is really off the mark. I don't care whether you're comfortable with it being odd as if people concerned about that poll are putting Silver's needs first.
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Arch
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« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2016, 10:22:24 pm »

WTH IS THIS ATROCITY?

Really, Nate!?
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Bernie 2020
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« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2016, 10:30:42 pm »

Well, if it's good enough for 538 it's good enough for the Atlas database Smiley
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Arch
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« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2016, 10:32:21 pm »

Well, if it's good enough for 538 it's good enough for the Atlas database Smiley

No. This is ridiculous. NM for Trump and SD for Clinton? At the same time, he's losing Colorado and NV handily? This makes no sense.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2016, 11:02:20 pm »

I KNEW HAPPY SOUTH DAKOTA FARMERS WOULD DELIVER THE STATE FOR HILLARY!!!!!!!

/s

Now do you guys believe me that Nate's lost it, and really isn't doing much other than making a glorified polling map?
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Lok
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« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2016, 11:05:03 pm »

And we thought we have seen some bad polling...

This is the biggest pile of horse sh** I have seen when it comes to polling.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2016, 11:51:01 pm »

I was one of the first to call out discredited fraud Nate Silver. If only the rest of this country had listened. If only...
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« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2016, 11:57:22 pm »

Does anybody have an explanation on why the polling has been so rogue this time around?
Tied Texas, Battleground Rhode Island?
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2016, 12:08:42 am »

I was one of the first to call out discredited fraud Nate Silver. If only the rest of this country had listened. If only...

#Accolades
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2016, 12:32:33 am »

Does anybody have an explanation on why the polling has been so rogue this time around?
Tied Texas, Battleground Rhode Island?

Because they're tiny sample sizes, some are calling landlines only...
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Seriously?
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2016, 05:18:59 am »

Jesus Christ.

Silver's whole #AllDataPointsMatter nonsense is getting out of control. Adding obvious junk polls under the presumed assumption that an equally polarizing and junkish poll will come along later to balance out the overall result is silliness.
I disagree. He's using them to tack onto a blended sample of data for the state when he runs his projections. He's well aware of the MOE and the tendency for the poll in isolation to be suboptimal, especially with the tiny sample sizes.

The polls are instructive as data points when added to other data points and probably more instructive than Reuters/Ipsos and Washington Post/Survey Monkey as the data is over a week span as opposed to a 1-3 week span (Reuters), or 4 week span (SM).

You could recreate a more representative sample by compounding the surveys into 1, 2, 3 week surveys if you wanted to like Reuters and SM does.

You can likely extrapolate the Reuters/Ispos numbers over a week if you wanted to at this point, but solely if you had access to the underlying data. Reuters doesn't give us this. Google does, down to the individualized weights of the individualized survey respondent.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2016, 06:22:36 am »

Clinton trailing by more in FL and NC than she is in MT? Junk!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2016, 08:14:59 am »

#WhatsUpWithDC
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Maxwell
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2016, 10:17:04 am »

no undecideds? pure trash.

I mean, has anyone ever heard of the concept Garbage In, Garbage Out? If you get information from bad and obviously junky sources, guess what? your conclusions are going to be bad and junky.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2016, 10:31:03 am »

Which one is a summary of the results?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2016, 10:44:42 am »

no undecideds? pure trash.
There are, but they "removed" them.

But I agree: all those 50-state online polls seems to have problem with weightening and too small samples. They are may be usefull for complex models, but they are not for average users.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2016, 10:47:06 am »

Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2016, 06:52:14 pm »

no undecideds? pure trash.

I mean, has anyone ever heard of the concept Garbage In, Garbage Out? If you get information from bad and obviously junky sources, guess what? your conclusions are going to be bad and junky.
What makes the sources "junky" to you? Obviously, internet polling is more experimental right now, but it's more likely than not the wave of the future.

These numbers are helpful as data points in poorly polled states, if you put them in aggregate with the other polls of the state. I could see how Silver would use them. If you add the four weeks, you're no different than the Reuters or Survey Monkey polls and have something which, if blended together, can get you a decent poll.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2016, 07:02:16 pm »

Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?

Depending on the pollster, "somewhat likely" is somewhat unlikely to make the cut.  Some pollsters include only "certain to vote", others may include "very likely" as well. 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2016, 07:14:24 pm »

Does anybody have an explanation on why the polling has been so rogue this time around?
Tied Texas, Battleground Rhode Island?

Because they're tiny sample sizes, some are calling landlines only...

There are a bunch of crappy polls floating around, however Texas does appear to closer than in quite a few GE cycles, and RI will likely swing Republican this year in a State that when heavily Bernie in the primaries (yuuuge upset) with a fairly dovish political history, large population of European Ethnic backgrounds, historical large manufacturing sector that has vanished over the past 30-40 years, and additionally has the largest population of both Catholics and Italian-Americans in the country, that Trump would be doing relatively well against a Democrat that still has a fairly Hawkish Foreign Policy reputation, a strong history of being a "Free Trade" Democrat, in a state that is one of the last remaining "New Deal Democrat" states in the nation.

Although, I don't believe that Hillary win will Texas, nor will Trump win Rhode Island, I do expect significant swings in both states this November.
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