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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown
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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 11039 times)
Gustaf
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« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2016, 03:12:09 pm »

Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?

I think the theory is that people tend to lie about these things, overstating their likelihood to vote. So far from everyone who says "I'll definitely vote" does and those who are only somewhat likely are actually very unlikely.
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« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2016, 03:23:41 pm »

538 crunched the DC numbers.. They may be close to accurate if they took that leading 2 for Trump and added the 20% to Clinton. (Obviously, the sample sizes are hideous).

AUG. 31-SEP. 6   Google Consumer Surveys    66   LV   
Clinton 48%
Trump 22%
Johnson 9%

AUG. 24-30   Google Consumer Surveys   67   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 26%
Johnson 10%

AUG. 17-23   Google Consumer Surveys   
58   LV   
Clinton 54%
Trump 22%
Johnson 8%

AUG. 10-16   Google Consumer Surveys   54   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 25%
Johnson 6%
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Ebsy
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« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2016, 03:25:50 pm »

538 crunched the DC numbers.. They may be close to accurate if they took that leading 2 for Trump and added the 20% to Clinton. (Obviously, the sample sizes are hideous).

AUG. 31-SEP. 6   Google Consumer Surveys    66   LV   
Clinton 48%
Trump 22%
Johnson 9%

AUG. 24-30   Google Consumer Surveys   67   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 26%
Johnson 10%

AUG. 17-23   Google Consumer Surveys   
58   LV   
Clinton 54%
Trump 22%
Johnson 8%

AUG. 10-16   Google Consumer Surveys   54   LV   
Clinton 44%
Trump 25%
Johnson 6%
That's embarrassingly bad. Did they just not interview black people at all?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2016, 03:33:12 pm »

Even among white people in DC, I doubt Trump will even get double digit support lol
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2016, 07:21:46 pm »

Even among white people in DC, I doubt Trump will even get double digit support lol
We should convince CNN to commission exit polls there Tongue
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emailking
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« Reply #30 on: September 12, 2016, 11:07:04 am »

Now do you guys believe me that Nate's lost it, and really isn't doing much other than making a glorified polling map?

Not at all. Data is data. You don't throw it out because you don't think it's right. It's given a low weight in the database because of the small sample sizes. He throws out polls that are believed to be fake, but not polls that are real with seemingly strange results. If you can't understand the rationale in this, well I'm sorry. But that's problem with you and your understanding of statistics, rather than with Nate and his application of it.

I was one of the first to call out discredited fraud Nate Silver.

You discredited yourself by pretending to love Trump for the better part of a year.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #31 on: September 12, 2016, 12:50:53 pm »


I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #32 on: September 12, 2016, 02:34:47 pm »


I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
Then surely you also like Clinton +12 in WI...?
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Lok
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« Reply #33 on: September 12, 2016, 04:55:08 pm »


I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)

He didn't adjust the numbers at all in the polls-plus part...
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #34 on: September 13, 2016, 01:36:45 am »


I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
Then surely you also like Clinton +12 in WI...?

Why not?

PA ( 20 ) - WI (10) = +10  ♬
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #35 on: September 13, 2016, 01:39:23 am »


I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
Then surely you also like Clinton +12 in WI...?

Why not?

PA ( 20 ) - WI (10) = +10  ♬

Have you just gone into self-aware self-parody?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #36 on: September 13, 2016, 11:30:11 am »

Junk. Trump isn't ahead ten points in NM.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #37 on: September 13, 2016, 12:00:05 pm »

Junk. Trump isn't ahead ten points in NM.

why you exaggerate TRUMP's leads in New Mexico?
New Mexico: Aug. 31-Sep. 6  Google Consumer Surveys, 215 LV
TRUMP 30% | Hillary 27% | Johnson 18%
and your liberal hero Nate Silver adjusted as +3% (same as results.)
Wink
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/#plus
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #38 on: September 13, 2016, 04:19:20 pm »

Junk. Trump isn't ahead ten points in NM.

why you exaggerate TRUMP's leads in New Mexico?
New Mexico: Aug. 31-Sep. 6  Google Consumer Surveys, 215 LV
TRUMP 30% | Hillary 27% | Johnson 18%
and your liberal hero Nate Silver adjusted as +3% (same as results.)
Wink
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/new-mexico/#plus


I meant this:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Img
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Maxwell
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« Reply #39 on: September 13, 2016, 04:23:45 pm »

ACtually decided to dig through and find out that - they literally have 21% undecided.

My god is there worse trash in the world?
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Castro
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« Reply #40 on: September 14, 2016, 02:20:17 pm »

538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #41 on: September 14, 2016, 02:22:14 pm »

538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1
I can't even
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KingSweden
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« Reply #42 on: September 14, 2016, 02:23:15 pm »

538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1

Good lord
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #43 on: September 14, 2016, 02:38:55 pm »

538 updated with their newest results, which include these gems:

Arkansas: Trump +1
DC: Clinton +6
Kansas: Clinton +9
New Jersey: Clinton +2
West Virginia: Clinton +1

That's a 30 point swing in West Virginia in a week.

Img
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bilaps
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« Reply #44 on: September 14, 2016, 03:06:38 pm »

At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #45 on: September 14, 2016, 03:10:55 pm »

At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #46 on: September 14, 2016, 03:40:01 pm »

At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #47 on: September 14, 2016, 03:41:35 pm »

At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)
What's the map look like?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #48 on: September 14, 2016, 04:08:42 pm »

At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)
What's the map look like?


And, assuming Trump gets NE-2 and ME-2, NH becomes the tipping point. Given what we know about it, this would clearly produce an anti-2000 result Tongue
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Ebsy
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« Reply #49 on: September 22, 2016, 02:05:43 am »

Seek help.
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