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Author Topic: Google Consumer Surveys 50-state breakdown  (Read 10900 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« on: September 09, 2016, 09:03:05 pm »

https://drive.google.com/drive/u/0/folders/0B29GVb5ISrT0VzFQWjFSWGcyeVE

Very, very strange. 538 likes them though...
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2016, 09:53:52 pm »

Oh my god, look at those sample sizes Surprise

Releasing a crosstab with fewer than 100 respondents is stupid. This is even moreso.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2016, 08:14:59 am »

#WhatsUpWithDC
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2016, 10:47:06 am »

Question for people who know things about polling: I see that "Somewhat likely" voters are given no weight; is this a normal setup for a LV screen?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #4 on: September 11, 2016, 07:21:46 pm »

Even among white people in DC, I doubt Trump will even get double digit support lol
We should convince CNN to commission exit polls there Tongue
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2016, 02:34:47 pm »


I like Pennsylvania results!
Pennsylvania: Google Consumer Surveys, 8/31-9/6, 808 LV
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
TRUMP 35% | Hillary 33% | Johnson 11%
(Liberal hero, Nate Silver adjusted it as TRUMP +2%)
Then surely you also like Clinton +12 in WI...?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #6 on: September 14, 2016, 03:40:01 pm »

At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #7 on: September 14, 2016, 04:08:42 pm »

At this moment don't get why are they including these polls in the forecasts at all even though they give them small weight. Even with bigger sample sizes they have Trump up 10 in FL and Clinton up by only 8 i think in IL
I would say it looks pretty plausible in states that have enough respondents.
If you assume that the race is Trump +7, yeah. I don't (sane)
What's the map look like?


And, assuming Trump gets NE-2 and ME-2, NH becomes the tipping point. Given what we know about it, this would clearly produce an anti-2000 result Tongue
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2016, 10:13:46 am »

I honestly can't decide which result is the junkiest one. So much trash.
Your new electoral map!

Img

The realignment is real!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2016, 05:50:56 am »

This is a weird set of polls.
The state-by-state breakdown would actually make perfect sense in an election where the GOP was making historic inroads among black voters, while Democrats improved significantly with whites (both college and non-college educated). Trump does better than you'd expect in all the states with more blacks and underperforms in all the whiter states. Of course this is not happening so what is more likely is that GCS is overpolling white liberals and underpolling minorities.
So... consumers of premium content?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,899
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2016, 09:46:07 am »


wow
« Last Edit: October 12, 2016, 10:00:26 am by @realJohnEwards »Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
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Posts: 1,899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2016, 10:09:45 pm »

So this... thing has coughed up some more numbers, featuring these gems:

Illinois C+4
Kansas C+19
Utah: 21-15-11 T-C-L
Colorado: C+19
Indiana: C+6
Arkansas: T+4
NM to the left of Delaware, but to the right of Kansas
Oklahoma to the left of Texas
Idaho to the left of Georgia
Trump under 20 in three states, but NOT DC.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #12 on: October 25, 2016, 04:39:33 pm »

10/20-10/24 update: Gaze upon thy glory and tremble in terror




By Google standards, that's downright reasonable! They're improving.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87


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« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2016, 05:17:52 am »

This map hurts to look at despite being a Clinton victory. There are so many things that don't make sense, and it looks even more clunky than the primary map.
Take out AK, KS and IA and you get a 271 Freiwal Smiley
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