Is this good analysis?
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  Is this good analysis?
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Author Topic: Is this good analysis?  (Read 2150 times)
Spark
Spark498
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« on: September 10, 2016, 10:11:11 AM »

Trump will win Colorado, while Hillary wins Nevada.

-Colorado has legalized marijuana and is more liberal on social issues. Trump is more socially moderate than most Republicans.
-Colorado is more libertarian, which is the reason why Johnson should perform well here at 8%. This will take away from both sides but more from Hillary.
-Although Colorado has a sizable Hispanic population, it also has a high number of Independents, and Trump is leading among them.
-Colorado dislikes the Clintons.

-Hispanics are undersampled in Nevada
-Clark county will go heavily for Clinton, while Trump takes Washoe county.
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Penelope
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2016, 10:12:56 AM »

nonsense analysis
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I spent the winter writing songs about getting better
BRTD
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2016, 10:17:58 AM »

No. It's based on a series of faulty premises, some of which contradict each other, and ignores all actual indications like polls.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2016, 10:19:24 AM »

it's about as insightful as anything else you've posted as "analysis"

please take that as an insult
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2016, 10:22:23 AM »

This really must be your first election.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2016, 10:55:11 AM »

You have to be joking. I'm glad you've come to your senses about Nevada, but if you seriously think Trump is poised to do well in Colorado, you haven't been paying attention.
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2016, 11:00:19 AM »

Huh
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Penelope
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2016, 11:00:55 AM »

Why is this thread necessary? Your last thread was this exact thread, except with more #analysis.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2016, 11:05:33 AM »

I remember my first beer!
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Human
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2016, 11:10:11 AM »

No

There are way too many college-educateds in CO.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2016, 11:13:00 AM »

No. While demographics aren't destiny (see: NV), CO's have been trending Democratic for a while now, and many of Trump's worst groups are over-represented here (college whites, Hispanics), whereas in a state like Nevada non-college whites are enough to balance this out at least somewhat.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2016, 11:18:06 AM »

He won't won Pa, NV or CO
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Human
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2016, 11:18:22 AM »

-Colorado has legalized marijuana and is more liberal on social issues. Trump is more socially moderate than most Republicans.

How is a guy who is staunchly anti-immigration, strongly anti-marijuana legalization, wants to literally BAN Muslims from entering this country, wants to punish women who recieve abortions, and believes that climate change and evolution aren't real socially moderate? I could argue that Donald Trump is even more socially conservative than most Republicans.
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2016, 11:28:23 AM »

I think he CAN, yeah. I don't think he will, though.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2016, 11:29:19 AM »

Nah, he's probably the worst fit of any GOPer for this state. Very unlikely that he's winning here.
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2016, 11:43:38 AM »

No, and it doesn't even look like it'll be close.
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Spark
Spark498
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2016, 04:53:48 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2016, 05:16:38 PM by Spark498 »



Trump:  273
Clinton: 265

0-3% Toss-up = 30%
3-5% Lean = 40%
5-10% Likely = 50%
10-15% Solid = 70%
15% + Safe = 90%
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2016, 04:56:57 PM »

How many more variations of these do you plan on posting? Just to check.

Flip NH and CO and it's still underestimating Hillary. She has a solid chance this year in NC, and I think she will take it. IA and OH are up in the air, and I'd say she has a slight edge in FL.
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AGA
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2016, 05:00:33 PM »

How can Trump win Colorado? New Hampshire looks very difficult for him as well.
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Spark
Spark498
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2016, 05:04:01 PM »

How can Trump win Colorado? New Hampshire looks very difficult for him as well.

It is very possible. Please reference my other thread.
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Person Man
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2016, 05:05:08 PM »

Maybe trade CO and PA? But hey. If Hillary is really this inept, I can see it.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2016, 05:08:31 PM »

FL is not Likely R, LOL.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2016, 05:11:39 PM »

New Hampshire is Safe D. And that is just to start.
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Vern
vern1988
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« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2016, 05:58:21 PM »

New Hampshire is Safe D. And that is just to start.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2016, 06:04:04 PM »

delete your account
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