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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  Clinton +5 in ABC/Washington Post Poll
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Author Topic: Clinton +5 in ABC/Washington Post Poll  (Read 2056 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #25 on: September 11, 2016, 12:38:07 am »

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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #26 on: September 11, 2016, 05:04:18 am »

But where are all unskevers? It is clearly an outlier. As CNN.

Her RV lead increased from +8 to +10? Common!
Obama has 58% approval rating? Common!

But Hillary's alt right speech seems to work as I predicted. I wounder how "deplorables" statement will play out Smiley



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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #27 on: September 11, 2016, 05:13:54 am »

They BTH weight by party identification (compared to their latest polls).

Quote
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the
survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for
differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult
sample is weighted to correct for differential probabilities of selection among
individuals who are landline-only, cell phone-only or dual users. Results are also
weighted match the demographic makeup of the population by sex, region, age, education
and race/ethnicity according to the latest Current Population Survey Social and
Economic Supplement by age, race/ethnicity, sex and education. The sample is weighted
to an average of the current sample’s party identification and an average of recent
Post-ABC surveys conducted by SRBI.

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Seriously?
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« Reply #28 on: September 11, 2016, 05:20:17 am »
« Edited: September 11, 2016, 05:35:53 am by Seriously? »

They BTH weight by party identification (compared to their latest polls).

Someone that is smarter than me explain to me this... They find the voter intensity on Trump's side. Write about how big of a difference it is and then at the end of the poll, admit they are weighing to party ID.

Then there's this:

Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 36-28-31 among likely voters.

What the hell kind of sample did they get in that scenario? I don't even think it was D+8 in 2008.

There hasn't been a D+8 exit poll going back to 1992. There hasn't been a Republican number at 28 in that time period either. There must be a hell of a lot of Trump-supporting independents then or something...

No... wait.. Clinton wins independents...
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Chief Justice windjammer
windjammer
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« Reply #29 on: September 11, 2016, 05:43:07 am »

This poll is a bit overestimating Clinton I guess. I think she's more likely leading Trump by 5 points right now.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #30 on: September 11, 2016, 05:51:09 am »

They BTH weight by party identification (compared to their latest polls).

Someone that is smarter than me explain to me this... They find the voter intensity on Trump's side. Write about how big of a difference it is and then at the end of the poll, admit they are weighing to party ID.

Then there's this:

Democrats-Republicans-independents, in the full sample, and 36-28-31 among likely voters.

What the hell kind of sample did they get in that scenario? I don't even think it was D+8 in 2008.

There hasn't been a D+8 exit poll going back to 1992. There hasn't been a Republican number at 28 in that time period either. There must be a hell of a lot of Trump-supporting independents then or something...

No... wait.. Clinton wins independents...

Where did you find crosstabs and performance among party identification?

Here https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3105532/2016-09-08-Trend-for-Release.pdf

There is
D       34%
R       24%
I        33%
Other   5%
NO       3%
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #31 on: September 11, 2016, 06:02:17 am »

Many questions about Clinton/Trump. Women/wall, bending the rules/emails/foundation.
Even in this sample 69% vs 24% thinks she is too willing to bend the rules Shocked

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North Fulton Democrat
mollybecky
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« Reply #32 on: September 11, 2016, 07:32:05 am »

Great news!  Now it's time to close the LV/RV gap.  And it looks like the "deplorable" comment is meant to do that.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #33 on: September 11, 2016, 07:38:01 am »

Clinton is up by 2.
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