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Author Topic: Close races in NH, AZ, NV and GA in NBC/Marist polls (RV, LV)  (Read 4958 times)
amdcpus
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« on: September 10, 2016, 10:47:28 pm »

NH:

RV:

Clinton 37%
Trump 36%
Johnson 17%
Stein 3%

LV:

Clinton 39%
Trump 37%
Johnson 15%
Stein 3%


AZ:

RV:

Clinton 37%
Trump 37%
Johnson 13%
Stein 4%

LV:

Trump 40%
Clinton 38%
Johnson 12%
Stein 3%

GA:

RV:

Clinton 41%
Trump 40%
Johnson 11%

LV:

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 10%

NV:

RV:

Clinton 41%
Trump 39%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

LV:

Trump 42%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

Senate:


NH:

RV:

Ayotte 51
Hassan 44

LV:

Ayotte 52
Hassan 44

AZ:

RV:

McCain 57%
Kirkpatrick 38%

LV:

McCain 57%
Kirkpatrick 38%

NV:

RV:

Masto 46%
Heck 45%

LV:

Heck 47%
Masto 45%


GA:

RV:

Isakson 50%
Barksdale 38%

LV:

Isakson 53%
Barksdale 38


All polls were done September 6-8.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2016, 11:34:28 pm by amdcpus »Logged
ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2016, 10:48:30 pm »

They clearly forgot to poll angry women.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2016, 10:50:41 pm »

That NH number is terrible for Hillary, but those GA and AZ numbers are Terrible for Trump.

Edit: You dont feel like posting the LV numbers? Why post anything then?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2016, 10:50:51 pm »

I don't see these numbers. Where are you getting them from?
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McCaskill 2020
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« Reply #4 on: September 10, 2016, 10:51:22 pm »

That NH number is terrible for Hillary, but those GA and AZ numbers are Terrible for Trump.

You can't possibly believe the NH number?

Also lol@AZ and GA.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2016, 10:51:44 pm »

amdcpus must be some insider because I'm not seeing these polls anywhere on Twitter yet. I'm sure we'll see links in like 10 minutes or so though.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #6 on: September 10, 2016, 10:52:52 pm »

That NH number is terrible for Hillary, but those GA and AZ numbers are Terrible for Trump.

Edit: You dont feel like posting the LV numbers? Why post anything then?

Fine, wait a minute, I'll post them.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: September 10, 2016, 10:54:55 pm »

That NH number is terrible for Hillary, but those GA and AZ numbers are Terrible for Trump.

You can't possibly believe the NH number?

Also lol@AZ and GA.

I dont see a link, but I trust amdcpus's thread with no link more than your insight into angry New Hampshire women.
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McCaskill 2020
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« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2016, 10:56:04 pm »

That NH number is terrible for Hillary, but those GA and AZ numbers are Terrible for Trump.

You can't possibly believe the NH number?

Also lol@AZ and GA.

I dont see a link, but I trust amdcpus's thread with no link more than your insight into angry New Hampshire women.

No way Clinton is only up 2 in NH.

Also, amdcpus, can you fix the title please?
« Last Edit: September 10, 2016, 10:57:49 pm by TN volunteer »Logged

#McCaskillOrBust

amdcpus
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« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2016, 10:58:03 pm »

That NH number is terrible for Hillary, but those GA and AZ numbers are Terrible for Trump.

Edit: You dont feel like posting the LV numbers? Why post anything then?

Posted
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2016, 10:58:30 pm »

Source?
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2016, 10:58:40 pm »

Thanks for posting the LV numbers. If true, not great for either candidate.
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Southern Delegate Spark498
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« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2016, 10:58:51 pm »

Thanks for posting this. It gives me hope lol.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2016, 10:59:42 pm »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.
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NOW do you believe me about Nevada?
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2016, 11:01:59 pm »

Mark Murray hasnt said anything about a poll, and hes usually my go to guy for NBC polls. But maybe they got leaked?
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Ljube
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« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2016, 11:02:26 pm »

Johnson at 10+. Useless polls.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: September 10, 2016, 11:02:59 pm »

Mark Murray hasnt said anything about a poll, and hes usually my go to guy for NBC polls. But maybe they got leaked?
NBC polls are almost always tweeted from his account, usually with prior warning. Nothing so far on these.
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: September 10, 2016, 11:03:03 pm »

There is no way Georgia, NH, NV are all within 1-2% of each other. None. Poster might be a troll
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heatcharger
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« Reply #18 on: September 10, 2016, 11:03:42 pm »

Mark Murray hasnt said anything about a poll, and hes usually my go to guy for NBC polls. But maybe they got leaked?

Possibly, but then why does only OP have the numbers? I don't see anything about any Marist polls anywhere. I'm inclined to believe them though, because he found the ABC/WaPo poll early.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #19 on: September 10, 2016, 11:04:46 pm »

Mark Murray hasnt said anything about a poll, and hes usually my go to guy for NBC polls. But maybe they got leaked?

Possibly, but then why does only OP have the numbers? I don't see anything about any Marist polls anywhere. I'm inclined to believe them though, because he found the ABC/WaPo poll early.
The OP is down with Wikileaks? Smiley
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Scott🦋
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« Reply #20 on: September 10, 2016, 11:04:57 pm »

Very laughable Nevada numbers.  Is Marist one of those racist pollsters that doesn't poll in Spanish?
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Mallow
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« Reply #21 on: September 10, 2016, 11:07:59 pm »

No way are NV/NH and AZ/GA that close to each other.

Yeah, that makes zero sense. For reference, in the previous two elections, the margin for each state compared to the national margin for the respective election have been....
AZ: R+15.7, R+12.9
GA: R+12.5, R+11.7
...
NH: D+2.4, D+1.7
NV: D+5.2, D+2.8

For Trump to be +2 in AZ and +1 in NV, those two states would have to swing more than 14 points with respect to each other in one cycle, which has happened once since 1940 (1976 -> 1980). The second largest swing was about 13 points with respect to each other between 2004 and 2008. Most swings have been significantly smaller--since 1940, not including the 13 and 15 point swings previously mentioned, the average swing has been 4.9 points from one election to the next.

Likewise, GA and NH would have to swing more than 9 points with respect to each other, which hasn't happened since the 1992 -> 1996 elections. They've actually been remarkably steady with respect to each other since 1996 (varying between a 10 and 18 point margin separation)
« Last Edit: September 11, 2016, 12:01:54 am by Mallow »Logged

Animation of 1964-2012 presidential margin by state, adjusted by US margin

Oregonian grad student living in PA.

I support both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.
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MatteKudasai
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« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2016, 11:11:32 pm »

None of this would surprise me except NH, looking at LV... it would mean we were back to Clinton+6 or so, with an expanded education gap. But I'm not sure I trust these numbers with no source...
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What this election has revealed to me is that our American political factions hold no respect for one another, and that this disrespect has reached the personal level. If we make it through the next four years, I can only pray that our party does something to remedy this, because until we have removed all of our "deplorable" rhetoric from our systems, this nation is hopeless.
amdcpus
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« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2016, 11:12:59 pm »

Also, can you post the numbers for the Senate races?

Yea one sec
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Devils30
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« Reply #24 on: September 10, 2016, 11:13:14 pm »

AZ and NV are neighbors too, they shouldn't have wild counter swings.
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